EURCHF Monthly Support Is Insufficient to Halt the Price Decline to a Six-Year Low

23 November 2021 | Updated: 23 November 2021

EURCHF Analysis – November 23

EURCHF monthly support is not sufficient to halt the continuous fall in price. There was a temporary accumulation of price above the 1.05400 monthly support, but then price found its way below the level. Further support at 1.05040 was not able to halt the downslide in EURCHF either. The market has now touched down at 1.04450, a level it last got to on the 21st of July 2015. Therefore, EURCHF has now plunged to a 6-year low.


EURCHF Critical Levels

Resistance Levels: 1.08930, 1.09320, 1.09890
Support Levels: 1.08360, 1.07010, 1.05400

EURCHF Monthly SupportEURCHF Long Term Trend: Bullish

EURCHF has broken through several key levels and three major monthly critical zones to plunge to its current price level. After being rejected at 1.09320, the price fell to a major critical level of 1.08360, where bears were held for seven trading days. Following that, the price fell, breaking through key levels to reach 1.07010, where there was another period of accumulation before the market landed at 1.05400. It took several days, but EURCHF dropped even further.

At 1.04450, the market has now reached its lowest point in 6 years. Price is oversold as shown on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, whose signal line has been hovering around the oversold border since the beginning of November. We can fancy bulls stepping out of the shadows with an intent to influence the market, and there are signs of that effect. The latest three candles are reversal candles, including a handing man candlestick and a spinning top candlestick.

EURCHF Monthly Support EURCHF Short Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, although still predominantly bearish, the market is responding to bullish promptings. The candlesticks can be seen to have climbed above the middle line of the descending channel. Also, the RSI indicator has risen rapidly to touch below the halfway line as bulls keep pushing the market. A major highlight will be if the bulls can push above the 1.05040 key level, they will be able to hold and push further upward above 1.05400 in the short term.

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Dollar Extends Following Eurozone COVID-19 Situation

22 November 2021 | Updated: 22 November 2021

The US dollar continued to rise on Friday after Austria declared a full-fledged national lockdown because of the growing number of Covid-19 cases. Fears that additional virus restrictions across the Eurozone might stymie the recovery propelled the US dollar higher versus the euro, but it was also clear that haven-related buying helped the greenback in general.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars both lost over 0.60 percent to 0.7250 and 0.7000, respectively, as risk sentiment deteriorated. NZD/USD may find some support ahead of Wednesday’s Retail Sales report and RBNZ policy announcement. If the RBNZ does not raise interest rates to 0.50 percent, the NZD/USD could fall below 0.6900 this week.

Unless long-dated US rates start moving higher across the curve again, haven purchasing will support the yen, restricting USD/JPY gains. With anti-lockdown riots sweeping Europe over the weekend, the outlook for the single currency is bleak, even without factoring in the possibility of an economic downturn as a result. This week, EUR/USD could hit 1.1160, which could lead to a retest of 1.1000. GBP/USD continues to find support as a result of recent better-than-expected statistics, but it will continue to be hampered by its geographic relationship with the euro.

So far, the US dollar strength story has been validated largely in the G-10 sector, with Asian currencies maintaining stability, owing to the Chinese yuan’s ongoing appreciation.

Dollar Reaction As Biden Re-Nominates Jerome Powell

President Biden decided that re-appointing Powell would fulfill the President’s “dual duty” of maintaining monetary policy continuity while also safeguarding the Fed’s political independence. With inflation remaining substantially above the Fed’s objective, markets will be looking forward to the December Fed meeting to see if the central bank would speed up its tapering.

The news of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s re-nomination for a second term as Fed Chair sparked a hawkish reaction in US bond markets. This isn’t so much because Powell is regarded as a hawk, but rather because Lael Brainard, the leading alternative candidate for the role, is regarded as far more dovish than Powell. Because a Fed led by Brainard is projected to keep rates lower for longer, the market’s hawkish reaction is primarily about pricing out this dovish risk.

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Market Dump Continues on AUDJPY as Buyers Weaken From Exhaustion

22 November 2021 | Updated: 22 November 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – November 22

Market dump continues on AUDJPY as buyers fail to fully recover after rejection at 85.830. The dump started to increase after the market retested the resistance level and slid through the 84.680 price zone. The market thereafter touches down on 83.110, but the dump continues after a retest below the 84.680 price zone. AUDJPY continues to drop lower under bearish pressure.


AUDJPY Key Levels

Resistance Levels: 85.830, 84.680
Support Levels: 83.110, 81.900

Market dump continues on AUDJPYAUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bearish

AUDJPY is now assuming a consolidation phase as the price drops again. There was a previous rise in the market, in which the bulls broke through multiple key levels to reach the 85.830 resistance. Major friction in the upward market movement started when AUDJPY reached the 84.680 zone. Therefore, buyers weakened immediately after they reached 85.830. Following that, price fell through to 78.140, breaking and retesting the key level as it fell.

However, a major bullish revival happened as the price touched down at 78.140. Bulls engineered a market pump using a symmetric triangle system. This led to a surge in which price dashed through all key levels to reach 85.830. However, the resistance at this level remains valid, and a market dump is ensured after. The EFI (Elders Force Index) shows how market dominance has gradually shifted to the bears again.

Market dump continues on AUDJPY AUDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish

The 4-hour chart depicts the price in a current retracement activity, as it has done since the market crash began. The price is set to fall at 83.110, even as the MA period 20 poses as a resistance. The EFI is currently at equilibrium due to the ongoing pullback.
AUDJPY market dump is set to continue to the 81.900 support level.

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NZDUSD Could Drop to 0.68000 After Forging Into a Double Top Pattern

22 November 2021 | Updated: 22 November 2021

NZDUSD Price Analysis – November 22

NZDUSD could drop as low as 0.68000 after it takes the pattern of a slanting double top formation. Over the past three months, NZDUSD has had a pattern of movement which is undulating. This is chiefly because of fluctuating strength of sellers and buyers. However, it all could work in the sellers’ favor as the market could drop much lower after forming a double top pattern.


NZDUSD Key Zones

Resistance Zones: 0.71500, 0.72900
Support Zones: 0.69460, 0.68000

NZDUSD could dropNZDUSD Long Term Trend: Bearish

In the year 2021, the highest price rose was up to 0.74580, but it dropped in an instant back below 0.72900, which it retested several times. The market eventually drops about 4% to 0.69460, where it consolidated for a further two months. Sellers from there pushed the market further downward to 0.68000. This led to retribution from the buyers, who immediately pumped the price to 0.71500.

NZDUSD didn’t last at 0.71500 as it plunged almost immediately down again. However, halfway through, buyers regained control, pushing the market above the 0.71500 level. Price could have risen further had it held a bit longer above 0.71500, but it drops through the MA period 20 (Moving Average) to 0.69880, where it completes a double top formation. With this pattern, the price is predicted to drop even lower.

NZDUSD could drop NZDUSD Short Term Trend: Bearish

On the 4-hour chart, the MACD shows that the market is generally bearish as the line has remained below the zero level. Price is currently reacting to the 0.69880 price level as the market tapers through a triangle pattern. The MA period 20 remains as a resistance to the market currently.

NZDUSD is predicted to drop lower, breaking through 0.69460 before heading for 0.68000.

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Eurozone Economy Confront Threats of COVID-19 Resurgence

21 November 2021 | Updated: 21 November 2021

In Eurozone, the prospect of COVID-19-related lockdowns has reared its ugly head once more. Experts warn that they might drive the continent’s economy into a tailspin. Some observers are concerned that the Austrian government’s decision to enforce a complete lockdown across the country last week could extend across the continent.

Last week, the euro lost a lot of ground and ended up being the weakest performer. It’s first been dragged down by ECB officials’ dovish statements, which downplayed the necessity for policy measures to combat inflation. Worries increased even more after Austria was placed under full lockdown.

A New COVID infection is seen every day. In Austria, 19 infections have reached the 15k mark, up from less than 10k in the initial wave in November of last year. In Austria, daily deaths have risen to more than 50. Germany, which has a daily infection rate of roughly 60k compared to 30k in previous peaks, is feared to be next. Technically and structurally, the Euro faces significant downside risks in the near future.

In other currency markets, the Australian Dollar was the second-weakest currency, followed by the Swiss Franc. The pound was the most valuable currency, as robust inflation data fueled anticipation of an eventual Bank of England rate hike. The dollar was the second strongest currency, but the yen regained some ground as risk markets became more unsettled.

The Eurozone PMIs Are in the Spotlight in the New Week

As the euro is being savaged in the currency markets, the flash PMI statistics for the Eurozone will likely draw a lot of attention when they are issued at 09:00 GMT on Tuesday. The euro’s pain stems primarily from expectations that the European Central Bank will lag behind other central banks in normalizing monetary policy. However, recent fears about the Eurozone economy have caused investors to become even more concerned about the outlook.

This year, the Eurozone economy has made significant progress toward full recovery from the epidemic, with GDP forecast to regain lost output by the end of the year. While widespread supply shortages and rising energy prices are definitely having an impact across Europe, particularly in Germany’s enormous auto industry, no one is predicting a recession, at least not yet.

This year, the Eurozone economy has made significant progress toward full recovery from the epidemic, with GDP forecast to regain lost output by the end of the year. While widespread supply shortages and rising energy prices are definitely having an impact across Europe, particularly in Germany’s enormous auto industry, no one is predicting a recession, at least not yet.

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Euro Down As Lockdown Returns and Risk Sentiment Turns Negative

19 November 2021 | Updated: 19 November 2021

The Euro’s upside run was short-lived, as Euro selling resumed following ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish comments. In addition, Austria has gone back into full lockdown, with Germany perhaps following suit in the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections. The yen is rising sharply today as risk sentiment deteriorates. For the week, the Euro has been the weakest performer, followed by the Australian dollar. The best performer is still the pound, followed by the yen, and finally the dollar.

The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said in a speech that the central bank’s focus is “in the medium term, not the current inflation figures”. “When inflationary pressures are expected to subside-as is the case today-there is no point in responding through austerity policies,” she added. “Until the shock has passed, austerity measures will not affect the economy.”

Lagarde also stated that “supply shocks” will tend to “push up inflation and curb output.” In this case, “tightening monetary policy will only intensify the contraction effect on the economy.” The Euro is facing a “mixed shock”, partly related to catching up with demand, but with “strong supply drivers”. “Tightening policies prematurely will only make the squeeze on household income worse.”

“The conditions for raising interest rates next year are unlikely to be met,” she said. “In addition, even after the pandemic emergencies are expected to end, it is still important for monetary policy-including appropriate adjustments to asset purchases to support the recovery and the sustainable return of inflation to our 2% target.”

Euro Downward Trend Could Continue

Analysts agree that widespread lockdowns in Europe in the coming months will deal a severe blow to Eurozone growth (implying downward revisions to estimates), providing the ECB more incentive to be dovish in the face of high inflation. The pair had reached a new 16-month low of 1.12501 by late European morning. As the US session began, some profit-taking allowed it to recover to as high as 1.1320, but hawkish comments from key Fed members infused upside into short-end and real US government yields, giving the dollar a lift.

Looking back on the week as a whole, it’s been a disaster. The pair is on track to end the week with weekly losses of around 1.4 percent, its worst performance since mid-June. Strong US retail sales, the NY and Philly Fed surveys, Weekly Jobless Claims and Building Permits data, as well as data on Friday, all contributed to the dollar’s upward movement. Meanwhile, the single euro has been hit by the ECB’s dovish tone and the mounting Covid-19 situation in Europe.

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GBPJPY Buyers Escape Price Rejection Level

19 November 2021 | Updated: 19 November 2021

GPBJPY Price Analysis – November 19

In the market structure frame, GBPJPY buyers avoid price rejection below the 153.600 price point. The bullish entanglement with price order allows the bulls to exert more influence on the market. The bear’s dominance is currently on hold as the buyers prepare to take euphoric orders to new heights. This suggests that the buyers are positioned to demonstrate their authority by persuading them to advance as price momentum remains.


GBPJPY Significant Levels:

Resistance Levels: 156.100, 153.600
Support Levels: 151.000 149.100

GBPJPY buyersGBPJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish

Buyers of the GBPJPY avoid price rejection due to rising market influence. The bears began with a decline from the 156.100 critical level, followed by a sharp rally downstream. Important price levels are those of 153.600 and 151.000. The bearish exposure reduces price movement to the 149.100 price point, indicating that several inflation expectations have been broken. The bulls also contributed little to the market, attempting to engage the market in a retest at several critical levels.

Following a bearish tide to the 149.100 critical mark, the bulls were swayed into action by shooting the price point upward. As the Moving average indicator confirms with major crosses, the price movement rallies through numerous zones. When the market recovered to 156.100, the moving average displayed a bearish emergence cross, indicating that sellers are ready to affect the market. The GBPJPY falls in value, and prices lose pace. However, when the market fell to the 153.000 level, the price did not fall with it. As a result, the buyers avoid the rejection level and are determined to drive up the price.

GBPJPY buyers GBPJPY Short Term Trend: Bullish

The 4-hour chart first displays a rally down from the 156.100 significant level before heading back beyond the 153.600 level, which marks the rejection zone. The bulls finally escaped this zone and they are now established to flow deeper into their trend. The Stochastic Oscillator indicator measures price direction and the seller’s strength is assumed to be weakening. The bulls will therefore accumulate to cause an overflow in the market as the price is determined to rise back to the 156.100 price level.

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USDJPY Bears Yearn for a Retreat in a Bullish Phase

19 November 2021 | Updated: 19 November 2021

USDJPY Price Analysis – November 18

USDJPY yearns for a retreat despite the market phase constituting a bullish existence. The presence of the bulls has long been the story of the day. This implies that the buyers have had a major influence on the exposure of the market. The price premised on the bullish phase as several significant levels were been retested. The bullish stamina of the USDJPY is viewed to get stronger as the price movement increases. However, the bears are not let out of the pursuit. They have also made attempts to induce price movements into retreat as the bullish tee continues.


USDJPY Significant Levels:

Resistance Levels: 114.000, 112.900
Support Levels: 110.800, 109.100

USDJPY yearnsUSDJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish

USDJPY uptrend came as a result of a market-long merger in the price activity. Before the bullish propulsion came into the scene, the market witnessed a long range between the levels of 110.800 and 109.100 price levels. However, after this aggregation, the price ultimately broke out of the range and made a substantial swing upward in the bullish trend market.

Following this breakout, the Bollinger Band indicator provides us with a clear picture of how the price has been displayed on the chart. The price first hiatuses through the middle band of the Bollinger indicator before breaking through the 110.800 price level while ranging in the consolidation zone. As long as the bulls continue to rise, we can expect a retest of the Bollinger indicator’s middle band. Bullish uprising is still putting in huge bullish rises. As buyers seek a means to break through the 114.000 mark, the USDJPY eventually reached it. Before the bulls could make any progress, the bears forced a retreat to this level.

USDJPY yearns USDJPY Short Term Trend: Bullish

USDJPY market research 4hr chart demonstrates how the bulls and bears are producing price reactions in the market. The bears are currently making a huge drop back to the 114.000 price level, while the bulls are getting ready to continue their bullish phase. As a result of the sellers’ retreat, the bulls will maintain price movement upward, and the price is expected to rise over the 114.000 price level.

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New Zealand Dollar Rises in Response to Rising Inflationary Pressures

18 November 2021 | Updated: 18 November 2021

Inflation expectations were released in New Zealand, and the indicator rose for the sixth time in a row. Inflation expectations can lead to real inflation, hence this metric is closely studied. The third-quarter release was 2.96 percent, up from 2.27 percent in the previous quarter.

The result boosted the New Zealand dollar and increased the chances of the RBNZ hiking interest rates at its policy meeting next week. With a 25-bps boost in October, the RBNZ became one of the first central banks to raise rates since the epidemic began. The central bank is planning a succession of rate hikes through 2022, and the market’s primary concern is whether it will boost rates by 25 basis points or go for broke with a 50-basis-point hike.

Inflation in the United States continues to rise, but this hasn’t deterred consumers from spending, as retail sales rose 1.7 percent in October, up from 0.7 percent the month before. Core retail sales increased by the same amount, from 0.8 percent to 0.9 percent. Markets are growing concerned that the Fed may be forced to respond to the recent spike in inflation, as the argument that inflation is cyclical appears to be out of touch with reality. The financial markets may experience some turbulence if the Fed reduces its purchases.

Inflation is causing agony in the White House, as US voters may punish Democrats in the 2022 mid-term election over increasing costs. President Joe Biden will also have to make a significant decision about who will lead the Federal Reserve shortly. The favorites are Fed members Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard, with Brainard being more dovish, which might imply interest rates stay lower for longer, which would be good for equities and unfavorable for the US currency.

Newzealand Dollar Expected To Rise to 0.74 Versus US Dollar

Economists predict that the New Zealand dollar will have a good year in 2022. They expect the NZD/USD to gradually rise towards 0.74 in the coming year. The market will have to lower its expectations for austerity in 2022, but signs of continued inflation throughout the year should trigger speculation that the austerity cycle will have to continue in 2023-24 and set a bottom line below the New Zealand dollar.

The next year, This currency should have the most attractive spreads in the G10, so it should benefit more from the low volatility period and supported risk sentiment than other currencies. The New Zealand Central Bank’s austerity policy should be supported by strong domestic economic conditions. The rebound in tourism and education will provide additional impetus to the economy.

Milk and forestry prices (the two major export products) are still much higher than in the past five years. Even if there is a correction in 2022, the export industry should continue to support the recovery. However, the huge downside risk facing the New Zealand dollar in 2022 is sentiment related to China, which is still quite uncertain due to the government’s crackdown on certain industries and the potential economic slowdown.

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USDCAD Keeps Waxing Stronger After Bouncing From a Weekly Support

18 November 2021 | Updated: 18 November 2021

USDCAD Price Analysis – November 18

USDCAD keeps waxing stronger after it pushes up from a weekly support level at 1.23000. The fortunes of the market began to take another shape as the daily candles touched down at the 1.23000 price level on the 20th of October. The market then assumed a rounded bottom shape, by which a bullish revival was achieved. From there, the first success was to break the immediate resistance at 1.24700, after which USDCAD keeps waxing stronger.


USDCAD Important Zones

Resistance Zones: 1.24700, 1.26790
Support Zones: 1.23000, 1.20300

USDCAD keeps waxingUSDCAD Long Term Trend: Bullish

USDCAD was initially in an uptrend after it also facilitated a bullish revival from a bearish market on May 12th, when price fell to the 1.20300 support level. From there, the market keeps waxing stronger and it defiles many important zones on its way up. This continued till the price weakened around the 1.28300 resistance zone, which led to a slump in price.

A bearish dip was cut short at 1.23000 as a market revival is being facilitated. Moreover, the market making a revival at this level means, on a general view, USDCAD has still been bullish as it makes a higher low at this price level. Price keeps being bullish as it bounces off the mid-line of the Bollinger Band and is now trading close to its upper border. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) keeps displaying increasing bullish histogram bars to emphasize the current bullish strength of the market.

USDCAD keeps waxing USDCAD Short Term Trend: Bullish

The 4-hour chart shows a clearer route of the market and prospects. Price initially had a challenge breaching the 1.24700 resistance, which it finally did with the help of the Bollinger Band’s lower border. This is also the case for breaking through 1.25790. The MACD has had another golden cross, even above the zero level, as the market prepares for a higher level.

USDCAD is predicted to break beyond 1.26500 with a pump that would reach 1.28300.

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Note: Learn2.trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

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