USDJPY Bulls’ Breakout and Retest After Expansion

Updated:

USDJPY Analysis: Expansion Leads to Bulls’ Break Out and Retest

USDJPY bulls’ breakout and retest after expansion led to a bullish run in September. The market was held in a consolidation that lasted for several months. The month of September ended with an impulsive move. There was a sudden expansion from the 109.019 demand zone. The expansion led to a breakout and retest from the long-term consolidation. The significant level at 109.010 was retested. The Moving Average created a steep slope which guided the market out of the range.


USDJPY significant levels:

Resistance Levels: 115.410, 110.810
Support Levels: 112.710, 109.010

USDJPY Bulls’ Breakout and Retest After ExpansionUSDJPY long term trend: Ranging

New resistance and support levels were formed with the new consolidation. A new demand zone was formed at 112.710. The demand zone has been tested twice. The resistance zone was created on the 25th of November last year. The price filled the area within the Bollinger bands till the upper bands were hit. This caused a massive sell-off in one day. A false breakout was seen to occur afterward. The whole market had formed an ascending triangle from the breakout in September last year. A breakout and retest have formed on the daily chart outside the ascending triangle. Three bearish daily candles formed after the retest.

USDJPY Bulls’ Breakout and Retest After ExpansionUSDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish

The Stochastic revealed that the market was oversold in the four-hour timeframe. The breakout and retest was followed by a sharp rejection. This is obvious with wicks that slightly pierced into the upper band of the Bollinger. The Moving Average of the Bollinger Band has switched sides to hang above the candles. The bears are currently driving the market down.


The market is currently oversold on the four-hour Stochastic. This correlates with the Bollinger bands. The candles have rested on the lower bands, which is likely to act as a support. This is likely to cause a retracement towards 115.410. The bears are currently aiming for the 112.720 zone. Hence, the anticipated retracement is likely to be utilized to gather more momentum for a bearish move.

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AUDUSD Seeks to Break the 0.73150 Barrier Following the Latest Setback

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – January 20

AUDUSD seeks to surmount the 0.73150 as it recovers from its latest setback. The market can be seen to be zigzagging through an ascending channel, making consistently higher highs and higher lows. Price has made its first contact with the resistance level and has dropped to the lower border of the channel. The current rise from the lower border of the channel is expected to break the 0.73150 level.


AUDUSD Critical Levels

Resistance Levels: 0.73150, 0.74470, 0.75590
Support Levels: 0.72370, 0.71050, 0.69960

AUDUSD Seeks to Break the 0.73150 Barrier Following the Latest SetbackAUDUSD Long Term Trend: Bullish

A long-drawn consolidation that lasted from the beginning of 2021 till mid-2021 ended up in a 7% price drop. As soon as the price touched down at 0.71050, the market seeks recovery and cranked upward through a channel. However, at the third time of dropping to the lower border of the channel, the price unexpectedly slips through it and dropped further to the lower support at 0.69960.

Market buyers, however, aren’t giving in to depression as they seek immediate recovery. A “three-white-soldiers” candlestick pattern was used to ascend to the next price line. The market is rising further using another channel. Now, the price seeks to break the 0.73150 barrier. The Moving Average period 50 has dropped below the daily candles to provide support for the market. The Relative Strength Index now has its tip above the 50 mark.

AUDUSD Seeks to Break the 0.73150 Barrier Following the Latest SetbackAUDUSD Short Term Trend: Bullish

In the short term, the price has bounced off the lower border of the ascending channel and is now attempting to negotiate the first barrier moving forward, located at 0.72370. The odds are in favor of the bulls surmounting the major resistance at 0.73150. Once again, the MA period 50 is acting as support for the market as the RSI indicator is now in the bullish half of the chart.

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GBP/USD Moves Towards 1.3650 Regardless of Diplomatic Risks, as CPI Increases BoE Calls

Updated:

As the US dollar took a break on Wednesday after Tuesday’s profits, GBP/USD has bounced back to over 1.3600.

The pound stayed undisturbed by diplomatic incertitude, however did get some assistance from boiling inflation numbers that increased BoE calls.

 

 The Causes and Effects

Despite increasing diplomatic incertitude as momentum grows in the direction of a vote of no-confidence inside the united-Kingdom conservative party that has the ability to remove United Kingdom PM Boris Johnson from the spot at the top, Pounds has been a profiteer of the latest USD lack of strength. At the present levels close to 1.3640, GBP/USD trades around 0.6% higher than Asia pacific session lows and close to 0.4% higher on the day and as well aiming a trial of 1.3650 resistance.

The pound has been receiving upward force from inflation unexpected movement yesterday in addition affirmations from PM Johnson that the secondary plan coronavirus restrictions will stop next week as anticipated.

Looking at Wednesday’s inflation data; consumer price gets to 5.5% YoY last month, higher than expected 5.2%, as main inflation rises to 4.2% YoY against anticipation for a fall to 3.9% from 4.0% during November. Traders revealed that the data increased the probability that the BoE increase rate during its February 3 meeting and United-Kingdom cash market n yesterday are imping a 90% probability of a 25bps rate rise to 0.5% in two week time The probability that PM Johnson’s affirmation of the stoppage of the secondary plan coronavirus restriction next week may strengthen the BoE’s belief that the economic effect of the variant will be for short time.

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Malaysia Joins CDBC Race—Kickstarts Research Process

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Bank Negara Malaysia, the country’s central bank, has reportedly hopped on the train to develop a digital version of its currency. Currently, the project is still in the research stage with the country only “assessing the value proposition” of this kind of financial product.

Releasing a central bank-issued digital currency (CBDC) continues to gain traction in global financial discourse. While China currently boasts the most advanced CBDC product, other countries like Mexico, Indonesia, and Nigeria have also made meaningful strides in the CBDC race.

Bloomberg recently reported that Malaysia is the latest sovereign state to take a plunge in the CBDC space. Although it has not outlined any concrete plans yet, the Asian nation has initiated research to ascertain the effect of a central bank digital currency on its monetary policy and if it would be beneficial for the economy, noting:

“While a decision has not been made to issue CBDC, we have focused our research on CBDC via proof-of-concept and experimentation to enhance our technical and policy capabilities, should the need to issue CBDC arise in the future.”

Central Bank of Malaysia Previously Partnered with Other Apex Banks to Explore CBDC Systems

Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia collaborated with the central bank of Australia, Singapore, and South Africa to develop a cross-border payments trial using multiple CBDCs. The apex bank aimed at ascertaining whether the involved parties could cut the costs of such transactions and create more accessible channels to utilize them.

The combined project, dubbed Project Dunbar, aims at developing prototype shared platforms to allow direct cross-border CBDC transactions without the need for middlemen.

A central bank digital currency, popularly called CBDC, is a digital token developed and issued by centralized institutions like governments and central banks. That said, many have argued that this new initiative could negatively affect the monetary system and impinge on people’s freedom.

A vocal supporter of this message is infamous whistleblower Edward Snowden, who has labeled CBDCs “perversion of cryptocurrency” and a “cryptofascist currency,” considering the kind of power they give to the government over society.

 

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S&P 500 Falls Short at the 4810.0 Resistance Zone

Updated:

S&P 500 Price Analysis – January 19

S&P 500 falls short at the 4810.0 resistance zone. Price has been gyrating through an ascending parallel channel. Bulls show their prowess by pushing the market to the upper half of the channel. However, towards the end of November 2021, S&P 500 started showing notable weaknesses as the price keeps falling and rising above the channel’s middle line. In early 2022, the market falls short at 4810.0.


S&P 500 Significant Levels

Resistance Zones: 5000.0, 4810.0
Support Zones: 4581.0, 4467.0

S&P 500 Falls Short at the 4810.0 Resistance ZoneS&P 500 Long Term Trend: Bullish

The market’s uptrend movement has been a long-term trend for the S&P 500. This shows the stronghold of the bulls on the market. However, there are points of weakness here and there as the price pushes upwards. Very notable is the market dip that occurred in September 2021, which led to a drop to the lower half of the channel on the 4305.0 support line. Nevertheless, the bulls recovered in time to regain control and price with consecutive bullish candles to the upper half.

Another market weakness has invaded the market from the end of December 2021 to the beginning of the year 2022. Therefore, the price falls to the channel’s middle line, which confluences with 4581.0. There was a brief drop below this level before the market recovered. There was a similar incident shortly after that. In the new year, the price has dropped back to the 4305.0 level, which is now close to the channel’s lower border. Bulls, on the other hand, are expected to recover from this level in due course.

S&P 500 Falls Short at the 4810.0 Resistance ZoneS&P 500 Short Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, the price has begun a reversal from the lower border of the parallel channel. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator has its signal line driving upwards from an oversold status. The same can be said of the Stochastic Oscillator, which has also crossed upward from the oversold region. The market is expected to rise again to break through 4810.0.

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USDCAD Market Plans to Change Its Trend Tendency to a Bullish Phase.

Updated:

USDCAD Price Analysis – January 19

USDCAD market plans to change its trend tendency to a bullish phase at the 1.24800 price level. The universal market trend of price action since early June has been bullish in tendency. We can also see the bears’ demonstration in the market as they allow prices to fall from a certain height to more key levels.


USDCAD Price Zones:

Resistance Zones: 1.29190, 1.24800
Support Zones: 122700, 1.19990

USDCAD Market Plans to Change Its Trend Tendency to a Bullish Phase.USDCAD Long Term Trend: Bullish

The buyer’s phase emergence resulted from the price’s ability to rise through the 1.9990 significant level and continue in a bullish format. The price momentum, nevertheless, continued to move progressively on a swing high in a bullish tendency till it eventually arrived at the 1.29190 significant price level.

However, from this angle, there appears to be a sellers’ demonstration in view as they succeeded in changing price orientation to a short bearish phase. They, however, pushed the price tendency from 1.29190 down to the 1.22700 level of significance. This same structural plan of price influence continued as we then saw the bears engage the price level of 1.24800. The buyers are already prepared to change the course of the price from this level as the momentum indicator shows a price decrease in bearish tendency.

USDCAD Market Plans to Change Its Trend Tendency to a Bullish Phase.USDCAD Short Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour timeframe, the price display shows the market’s current orientation and what is set to happen next. The bears had successfully brought the price market down to the 1.24800 price zone, and the buyers were now prepared to change the market tendency as the Stochastic Oscillator shows the price in the oversold region. Prices are therefore scheduled to rise back to 1.29190 as the bullish phase sets in.

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Genel Energy Anticipates Free Movement of Money to Exceed Twofold in 2022

Updated:

Britain’s Genel Energy predicted yesterday that free movement of money to exceed twice what it used to be this year, aided by a rise in worldwide oil value, with Iraqi Kurdistan-concentrated oil manufacturer anticipating turnout at the unchanged level as of 2021.

 

The Actuators

The enterprise has been involved in a little quarrel with Iraq’s Kurdistan district government (KRG), and as of December began making judgments in opposition to them in London about facts demanding to end two contracts for apportioned gas projects in the region.

Genel, has profited from the recovery of oil value, after a fall in the early days of COVID-19 when provisions became more than needed.

Genel revealed that it anticipates the free movement of money; up to about $200 million, no later than the payment of dividends, at $75 per barrel of Brent oil value, raising shares 2.1% to 145 pence by 0835 GMT.

The company that declared a gross average manufacturing of 31,710 barrels of oil in a day during 2021, cautioned that an increment or decrement of $10 per barrel in Brent value would get to its yearly money movement by $50 million.

Intense oil purchase, caused by supply outage and signs the COVID variant Omicron won’t disrupt the request for fuel as feared, has driven few crude grades to many years highs, indicating the increase in value.

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Annual Forecast for EURCHF (2022)

Updated:

EURCHF Annual Forecast – Price Stabilizes Above the 1.03160 Support Level

The annual forecast for EURCHF is for the price to stabilize itself above the 1.03160 support level. The year 2021 was a year characterized by mostly bearish activity in the EURCHF market. This is chiefly due to the price working in accordance with its formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern. Therefore, the market’s continual fall from April 2021 to November 2021 was to perfect the head-and-shoulders formation.


EURCHF Significant Zones

Resistance Levels: 1.11600, 1.14340, 1.19980
Support Levels: 0.97280, 1.03160, 1.06250

Annual Forecast for EURCHF (2022)EURCHF Long Term Plan: Bearish

EURCHF had a huge drop off the 1.19980 significant level in January 2015. This is a corrective measure to the imbalance caused in the market by an upsurge from August to September 2011. Therefore, after the dip in price, EURCHF stabilizes itself above the 1.03160 support. From here, it rises through to 1.11600. Price retests 1.06250, forming the first shoulder before pushing higher to 1.19980.

Strong rejection at 1.19980 led to a major drop back to 1.06250, which created the head session. EURCHF tries to rise again, but the weakness of the market prevented it from surpassing 1.11600. This led to further drops, creating the head-and-shoulders pattern. The price has now plunged to 1.03160, where it is stabilizing itself. The market pattern is still in force and the forecast is for further drops. A fresh downward cross of the MA (Moving Average) Cross confirms this.

EURCHF Medium Term Plan: Bullish

EURCHF is currently stabilizing above the 1.03160 level on the weekly chart. This is giving the bulls some impetus in the market. And it can be seen in how the EFI (Elders Force Index) power line is rapidly reducing its negative value. The market pattern remains in bearish force though, as suggested by the MA Cross which is still downward. As a result, the current bullish impetus is most likely going to lead to a retest below 1.06250 before further drops towards 0.97280.

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Annual Forecast for USDCHF (2022)

Updated:

USDCHF Annual Forecast – Price Is Set for a Bullish Breakout

The annual forecast for USDCHF is a bullish breakout of its triangle formation. Since the market plunged from June to December 2020, buyers have been engineering the market upward, even against bearish forces. This sees price take a gradual rise, having consistent higher lows. But at the same time, lower highs can be observed on the monthly timeframe, leading to a tapering formation.


USDCHF Important Levels

Resistance Levels: 1.02000, 0.96760, 0.94640
Support Levels: 0.87640, 0.89960, 0.91870

Annual Forecast for USDCHFUSDCHF Long Term Plan: Bullish

The movement of the market before the 2020 drop has been nothing short of an annual random-ranging pattern. The price can be seen submitting majorly to the 1.02000 level as resistance and the 0.96760 level as support. The predominant force here is bearish, sometimes dropping below the support before recovering again. Eventually, this leads to the 2020 price drop to 0.87640.

Since falling to the 0.87640 support level, the market’s purchasers have gotten a hold of the market and are striving against the bearish forces to cause a market reversal. This has led to a tapering movement in a triangle pattern. The Stochastic Oscillator suggests that price will continue rising and eventually push into the oversold region. The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) also gives the same bias by aligning its dots below the monthly candles.

Annual Forecast for USDCHF USDCHF Medium Term Plan: Bullish

On the weekly chart, the price has dropped to the lower border of the triangle pattern, indicating that it is ready to launch another assault on the upper border to breakthrough. The Stochastic Oscillator is well-positioned after bouncing off the oversold region border to rise upwards. The forecast for USDCHF in 2022 is to break out and move towards 0.96760.

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GBP/JPY Groups Around 156.50 in Calm Trade While Weighty UK Data Bill, BoJ Policy Meeting in View

Updated:

GBP/JPY is grouping around 156 in a calm trade as attention turns to a weighty bill of UK data and the BoJ meeting.

The market is likely to continue trading as a substitute for worldwide risk appetite for the week.

After the short fell lower than the support level of 156.00 and visitation of the 155.50 mark; experienced last Friday,

The GBP/JPY has recovered, now trading around 156.50 for most of part Monday’s session, up about 0.2% during the day. Forex volumes were slimmer than what they used to be on Monday because of the closure of the US market for MLK Day, causing trading situations to be unexciting.

The Effectors

The observed recovery is majorly due to a sudden increase in the worldwide desire for risk during the closing weeks of last month.

As Omicron worries regressed and the market became surer that the BoE’s unexpected December rate increment would give way for more in 2022. However, the central bank’s increasing anxiety deflated the strength of America and worldwide equities at the start of 2022 aiding support the yen and as well pulling GBP/JPY back from recent elevations.

A weighty bill of the UK data, as well as the latest jobs, recount on Tuesday, inflation figures on Wednesday, and the recent retail sales numbers on Friday is likely to offer some higher risk to the pound if powerful enough to aid support BoE rate increment expectations. Traders should be on the lookout for what could be a strangely interesting BoJ meeting today since sources gave a clue that the bank is now working on how the bank might withdraw stimulus in years to come before inflation returns to BoJ’s 2.0% target.

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