EUR/USD rejects mayor resistance level

EUR/USD rejects mayor resistance level

Key Resistance Level: 1.2180
Key Support Levels: 1.2150 – 1.21

Mid-Term View
The EUR/USD has rallied to a big level. Last time it tested and rejected it, price moved down 230 pips (-1.88%). It´s important to see the confluence here (key resistance + short term bullish structure test + short term bullish targets + DXY bouncing from the lows)

1H chart Analysis
Mild bearish divergence detected at the highs of the move with a strong USD today makes for a high probability sell in the EU.

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EURUSD Pair Stays on the Back Foot Around 1.2100 as US Yields Extend Gains

EURUSD Pair Stays on the Back Foot Around 1.2100 as US Yields Extend Gains

EURUSD Price Analysis – February 22

EURUSD has reversed from session highs and now trading near 1.2100, having reached a high of 1.2135 level at the day’s beginning. The dollar recovers as US yields extend gains, equities drop. A continued rise in yields could trigger a market correction while boosting the USD.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2350, 1.2240, 1.2150
Support Levels: 1.2081, 1.2011, 1.1952
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The advance from the prior week low at 1.2023 level to as high as the 1.2144 level on Friday is due to renewed dollar’s weakness on continued risk appetite and suggests reversal from the prior week’s high at 1.2169 has ended where the upsurge from the trough at 1.1952 level may extend marginal gain.

However, on the downside, a daily exit beneath 1.2081 low level signals a high is reached and shifts the risk to downside for weakness towards 1.2050 level. On the flip side, Looking up, resistance awaits at 1.2150, which was a high point on Friday. It is followed by 1.2190 and support is at 1.2081, where the MA 13 hits the price.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair recovered nicely above 1.2050 and the moving average 13. The pair broke the 50% retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2169 high to 1.2022 marks. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near 76.4% retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2169 high to 1.2022 marks.

Meanwhile, EURUSD is still bounded in the range of 1.1952/1.2169 levels and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, a break of 1.2169 may restart the rebound from the 1.1952 level for retesting the 1.2350 level. On the downside, a break of 1.1952 may extend the correction from 1.2350 with another plunge.

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EURUSD Recovers Bullish Momentum and Targets 1.2200 Marks Following Euro Zone Data

EURUSD Recovers Bullish Momentum and Targets 1.2200 Marks Following Euro Zone Data

EURUSD Price Analysis – February 16

The EURUSD pair continues to trade in multi-day highs and targets the 1.2200 marks during the mid-week. The single currency rises higher and propels the EURUSD in an attempt to run past prior highs. The recently released Eurozone data was upgraded to 0.6% in Q4 while the German ZEW Economic Sentiment beat estimates.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2240, 1.2222, 1.2190
Support Levels: 1.2081, 1.2011, 1.1952
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
As seen on the daily chart, the EURUSD lifts higher from the 1.2125 level supported by the MA 5 and it’s likely the exchange rate gains support below at the MA 13 at 1.2088 in the event of a pullback. On the broader picture, the constructive stance in EURUSD stays unaltered while above the critical horizontal level, today at 1.2150.

However, the EURUSD still confronts a tough barrier in the 1.2200 zones ahead of the current price. The rebound from 2021 lows near 1.1952 (Feb. 5) follows the constructive outlook for the pair in the longer run. On the downside, the next support lines are up at 1.2011 followed by 1.1952, and finally 1.1887 low.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
EURUSD has been struggling to pull out of the MA 5 and 13 regions on the four-hour chart and trades above at 1.2040. The Relative Strength Index is below 60, thus outside overbought conditions and allowing for further gains.

The pair’s next resistance awaits at 1.2190 level, which has capped its price, although more further move beyond the 1.2190 and 1.2222 levels is eyed. Some support is at the low of 1.2118, followed by 1.2081 levels, a swing low from last week. A more significant cushion is at the 1.2050 level.

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After Poor US Jobless Claims Data, EUR/USD Resumes the Uptrend

After Poor US Jobless Claims Data, EUR/USD Resumes the Uptrend

The dollar returned to a sell-off early in the US session after slightly worse-than-expected jobless claims data. European majors are usually mixed. European indices are still mixed, while US futures are showing only a slightly higher top. Trading can be relatively calm.

The publication of data on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 19 thousand to 793 thousand, but still exceeds the projected 755 thousand, so the dollar is moving down in all directions, and EURUSD is breaking up. Meanwhile, there is room for 1.2180, but keep in mind that every move up is followed by a correction, so don’t be surprised at the potential slowdown over the next few sessions.

Ideally, there will be retracement and the opportunity to join an uptrend. Keep in mind that the decline from the January high has occurred in three phases and this bullish trend has resumed, so further gains are expected as long as the market trades above the 1.1950 rejection level.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended February 6 fell by -19,000 to 793,000, higher than expectations of 775,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell 33.5 thousand to 823 thousand. For the week ended January 30, the number of ongoing claims fell by -145 thousand to 4.545 thousand. The four-week moving average for ongoing claims fell -158k to 4,749k.
EUR/USD Uptrend Continues but Slowly
EUR/USD is pushing weekly highs but lacks momentum as the pair is still below the critical resistance area of ​​1.2170. The demand for the dollar remains weak after a soft statement from the Fed Powell and gloomy data on US employment.

“Satisfied comments by US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell impacted investor sentiment late Wednesday night as he indicated that rates will remain at record lows until employment and inflation hit desired levels, which will take longer.

“The US just posted initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5, 793k worse than expected.”

The bulls will have a better chance if the pair breaks through the 1.2170/80 price zone. There will be no significant macro data releases on Friday in the European economic summary and the dollar market valuation is likely to continue to drive EUR/USD.

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EURUSD Bullish Bias Continues for the 4th Day in a Row Towards 1.2150 Level

EURUSD Bullish Bias Continues for the 4th Day in a Row Towards 1.2150 Level

EURUSD Price Analysis – February 11

The EURUSD pair upside sentiment has held continuously for 4 days in a row after the pair bounced from the 1.1952 recent low. The major European currency pair rises higher as weak US inflation and labor market’s challenges weigh on the dollar.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2350, 1.2272, 1.2150
Support Levels: 1.2050, 1.1952, 1.1887
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The EURUSD continues to push higher, rising for the 4th day in a row, to a two-week high at the time of this post to 1.2136 with eyes on the 1.2150 level. Meanwhile, the EURUSD advance is easing on approach resistance at 1.2150 level. We also continue to see the hidden bearish divergence on the chart, which could suggest a pullback.

On the flip side, the price is likely to stall near the 1.2050 level of support for the moment in a case of an unexpected pullback. However, a close below this level could see the Feb 5 lows of 1.1952 come into the picture. If the current bullish moment continues, then the EURUSD may require to break out above 1.2272 level to confirm further upside.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The 4-hour chart shows that EURUSD is trading ahead of the moderately bullish with the 5 moving average about to cross the moving average 13 upwards. The RSI has turned north beyond its middle lines. An ongoing bullish trend could target a 61.8% forecast from 1.0635 levels to 1.2011 levels from 1.1602 at 1.2150 levels next.

The price recovery from 1.1952 low on the 4-hour chart indicates the path of least resistance to the higher side. So far, a compelling breach beyond the 1.2200 level is now in the range for this session. The currency pair is presently trading near the 1.2150 level, registering high at the 1.2132 level during the London session.

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EURUSD Range Trading Beneath 1.2050 Level Amid Poor German Data Release

EURUSD Range Trading Beneath 1.2050 Level Amid Poor German Data Release

EURUSD Price Analysis – February 8

The EURUSD pair rebounded on Friday, marking an end to 4 days in a row declines. The rebound comes after the price reversed near the lower horizontal line at the 1.1952 level. During today’s European session the EURUSD extended its decline in a range trading beneath the 1.2050 level amid a poor German data release on its industrial production.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2350, 1.2214, 1.2050
Support Levels: 1.1952, 1.1887, 1.1693
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
At the beginning of the week, the EURUSD stays pressured beneath the 1.2050 level. The pair is losing 0.19% at 1.2030 and meets initial support at 1.1952 (low) followed by 1.1887 level and finally 1.1693 level. On the flip side, a break above 1.2050 would target 1.2150 en route to the 1.2214 resistance zone.

In the larger context, the advance from the 1.0635 level is seen as the third phase of the trend from the 1.0339 level. A continuous rally may be seen to cluster resistance level at 1.2200 level next. This may stay as the considered scenario as long as the 1.1602 support level holds intact.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The intraday dynamics of EURUSD remains neutral with an emphasis on support at 1.2050, which has turned into resistance. A sustained breakout could mean the retracement from the 1.2350 level is complete and the larger uptrend is not yet complete.

Intraday bias could shift upward to 1.2150 resistance and then to a 1.2350 high. However, a break of 1.1952 would see a steeper retracement to 38.2% retracement from 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

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AUDUSD Upside Bias Stays Contained at Mid 0.7600, Rallying US Bond Yields Caps the Pair

AUDUSD Upside Bias Stays Contained at Mid 0.7600, Rallying US Bond Yields Caps the Pair

AUDUSD Price Analysis – February 4

The AUDUSD pair keep gains while its upside bias stays contained below the key hurdle at mid 0.7600 level. Signs of progress on additional US stimulus measures pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond to a near 10-month high touched in January with a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUDUSD.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7980, 0.7800, 0.7725
Support Levels: 0.7557, 0.7461, 0.7414
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The Australian dollar rebound back towards mid 0.7600, posting modest gains in a largely lackluster session. After its rebound, the pair drops to 0.7614 in the latest pullback from the intraday high of 0.7647 during early Thursday. In doing so, the Aussie pair steps back from the key resistance, previous support, comprising multiple levels marked since the mid-December 2020.

Trading sustainably beyond the ascending trendline will encourage a bullish scenario and prove that the bounce may hold. The attention may return to the 0.7820 high again. On the other hand, a breach of the 0.7600 marks would extend the pullback from 0.7763 Jan 27 high to a retracement from 1.1079 (high) towards 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7557.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
AUDUSD’s correction from the 0.7800 regions is still in progress. A steeper plunge could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.7000 to 0.7800 at 0.7557. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound. On the upside, the break of 0.7725 minor resistance will argue that the correction has been completed.

The intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.7819 high. Further advances are still under consideration as long as the 0.7557 support level stays intact. A breach of 0.7557 level may target the 0.7414 level in subsequent sessions.

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EURUSD Breaks Beneath Key 1.2000 Level As Stimulus Optimism Boost the Dollar

EURUSD Breaks Beneath Key 1.2000 Level As Stimulus Optimism Boost the Dollar

EURUSD Price Analysis – February 4

EURUSD has lost substantial levels after the pullback from the 1.2350 barriers while breaking beneath the key 1.2000 psychological level during the European session. The US dollar continues to benefit from Biden stimulus optimism which relatively is strengthening the US economic recovery.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2350, 1.2214, 1.2050
Support Levels: 1.1941, 1.1800, 1.1602
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
After losing ground for the 4th day in a row, the EURUSD accelerates the downside and finally breaks beneath the 1.2000 psychological marks. At the moment, the pair is plunging 0.40% at 1.1986 and faces initial support at 1.1941 seconded by 1.1900, and finally 1.1800.

On the flip side, a break above 1.2050 around moving average 5 would target 1.2156 (weekly high Jan.29) en route to 1.2214 level. If buying interest persists, traders could move towards the 1.2156 and 1.2200 marks, shifting the bearish bias to neutral. Looking up, the former support line of 1.2050 is strong resistance and may cap any upside movement.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
Intraday bias in EURUSD stays on the downside as a fall from 1.2350 is in progress for channel support (now at 1.1914). A sustained breach there would argue that it’s correcting the whole uptrend from 1.0635 to 1.2350 levels. The next near term target will be a 100% projection of 1.2350 to 1.2050 from 1.2214 at 1.1850 first.

On the upside, a break of the 1.2200 resistance mark, though, will suggest that the correction has been completed and bring a retest of 1.2350 high. The Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart is still above 30, thus outside oversold conditions with room for more downsides.

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EURUSD Bows to Downside Pressure Beneath 1.2100 Level as US Dollar Index Inches Higher

EURUSD Bows to Downside Pressure Beneath 1.2100 Level as US Dollar Index Inches Higher

EURUSD Price Analysis – February 1

The EURUSD pair spent the American session plunging lower in a relatively tight range near sub 1.2100 coming under strong downside pressure. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index inches higher around 91.00, rising 0.50% on the day. As of writing, EURUSD is down 0.50% daily at the 1.2072 level.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2350, 1.2240, 1.2150
Support Levels: 1.2050, 1.1900, 1.1602
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
On the daily charts, a further decline is expected to meet decent contention in the 1.2050 region, where sits the so far yearly lows (Jan 18). A deeper pullback carries the potential to challenge the psychological support at 1.2011 levels, although a move further south of this level is not favored in the near term. Below 1.2000 is located the key level at 1.1900 level.

On the broader picture, the constructive stance in EURUSD remains unchanged while above the critical ascending trendline support and the key level at 1.1900. On the other hand, a breakout of 1.2150 level would target 1.2214 level en route to 1.2240 resistance level. The alternative scenario sees the loss of the 1.20 zone as an initial bearish signal.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The 4-hour chart shows that the risk is skewed to the downside, as the pair is developing below firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators turned south, heading lower within negative levels. However, the RSI is yet to be oversold giving room for further selling.

A steeper decline could be expected on a break below the 1.2050 horizontal support, with investors eyeing an extension towards the 1.1900 level. On the upside, breach of 1.2150 level may aim for 61.8% forecast of 1.0635 to 1.2011 levels from 1.1602 at 1.2214 level next. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2011 support zone.

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EURUSD shorts in play

EURUSD shorts in play

The EU is still trading inside of the range it has been trading for the past 2 1/2 weeks but now has broken with a wedge and dropped 36 pips to created wen weekly lows.

We missed the move but a pullback to the previous broken level would give us a great short entry with good risk parameters targeting the previous weekly lows at first and if broken the next key level.

It´s possible that we do not get this pullback and in that case we will be looking for the break of the previous weekly lows and a retest to get in on the range´s breakout.

The DXY is still trading inside of a range itself but creating a flat triangle pattern which points at a bullish breakout in the short term making our EU short thesis even clearer.

Be patient to getting filled and don´t jump in this blindly. If we don´t get filled we will look for another entry.

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Author : Orlando Gutierrez