Category: Forex

Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Continues consolidation as bulls and bears reach indecision

Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Continues consolidation as bulls and bears reach indecision

Key Resistance Zones: 3300, 3400, 3500
Key Support Zones: 2800, 2700, 2600

Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Long-term Trend: Ranging
SHCOMP has been fluctuating between levels 3200 and 3400 since July. In September, the price is trading above the support line to break it. The index will trend if price breaks below it. Otherwise, the price fluctuation will linger on.

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
SHCOMP is at level 39 of the Relative Strength Index. The index is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline. The 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA are sloping sideways indicating the sideways trend.

Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Medium-term Trend: Ranging
On the 4- hour chart, the index is in a sideways move. The price is also fluctuating between levels 3200 and 3400.The small body candlesticks describe the indecision between buyers and sellers.

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
SHCOMP is below the 20 % range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market is in a strong bearish momentum. Besides, the price has fallen into the oversold region of the market. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping sideways indicating the sideways trend.


General Outlook for Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP)
SHCOMP is still trading between levels 3200 and 3400. It is yet to trend as the market continues to fluctuate within a confined range. The price action is characterized by small body candlesticks. One reason why the index is not trending.




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USDCHF Surges to 2-Month Highs Past 0.9200 Level Amid Positive Dollar Index

USDCHF Surges to 2-Month Highs Past 0.9200 Level Amid Positive Dollar Index

USDCHF Price Analysis – September 25

The USDCHF pair gained traction for the 5th day in a row and shot to 2-month highs past the 0.9200 level during the early European session. The improved dollar index is presently boosting the USDCHF bull case with a pullback most likely in the nearest future.

Key levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9902, 0.9550, 0.9321
Support Levels: 0.9200, 0.9116, 0.8998
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
On the daily time frame, the momentum reaffirmed the prior day bullish break through the horizontal resistance turned support level at 0.9242 by pushing higher to 0.9282 level for the first time in six months. A subsequent strength towards the 0.9300 strong marks is expected to prompt some technical buying.

Dips should remain contained by 0.9200 level near the horizontal support barrier. Only a slide below 0.9181 level will trigger a slide back to the 0.8998 recent low level. Nevertheless, a strong break of 0.9376 support turned resistance level will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn the focus back to the 0.9902 key resistance level.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bullish
Intraday bias in USDCHF stays on the upside at this point. The rebound from 0.8998 level should target 38.2% retracement of 0.9902 to 0.8998 at 0.9321 levels. Meanwhile a sustained break there will open the path to 61.8% retracement at 0.9550 levels.

On the downside, a break of 0.9181 minor support level will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the downside border and fixes below the 0.9200 level. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9116 levels.

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USD/JPY Reaches Overbought Region, Downward Move Is Expected

USD/JPY Reaches Overbought Region, Downward Move Is Expected

Key Resistance Levels: 111.000, 112.000, 113.000
Key Support Levels: 104.000, 103.000, 102.000

USD/JPY Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
The USD/JPY pair is on a downward move. A green candle body tested a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The Yen will fall and reach a low of 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. In other words, the downtrend will extend to the low of level 103.50.

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 50-day SMA and 21-day SMA are sloping downward indicating the bearish trend. The Yen is currently at level 47 of the daily Relative Strength Index. This indicates that the market is downtrend zone and below the centerline 50.

USD/JPY Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the Yen was earlier in a sideways move but now in an uptrend. Initially, the price fell to a low of 104.40 and resumed an upward move. The Yen is trading above level 105.00 and it has reached the overbought region.

USD/JPY – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The Yen is currently above the 80% range of daily stochastic. It is in a strong bullish momentum. Sellers may emerge to push prices down. The SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.


General Outlook for USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair was earlier in an upward move. It appears the Yen has reached the overbought region of the market. Prices are likely to fall. According to the Fibonacci tool, the Yen will fall and reach a level at 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. That is, the pair will reach level 103.50.



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EUR/GBP Faces Rejection at Level 0.9200, May Resume Downtrend

EUR/GBP Faces Rejection at Level 0.9200, May Resume Downtrend

Key Resistance Levels: 0.9200, 0.9400, 0.9600
Key Support Levels: 0.8800, 0.8600, 0.8400

EUR/GBP Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
The EUR/GBP pair is making a downward move. The pair is currently facing rejection at level 0.92000. A green candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair will fall and reach the 2.0 Fibonacci retracement level. That is the low of level 0.8870.

EUR/GBP – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 50-day and 21-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The pair is at level 56 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. Also, it is currently falling.

EUR/GBP Medium-term Trend: Ranging
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/GBP pair is in a range bound move. The price is currently fluctuating between level 0.9100 and 0.9200. The pair may resume a downtrend if the price breaks the support line. In the meantime, EUR/GBP is fluctuating in a confined range.

EUR/GBP – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The 50-day SMA and 21-day SMA are sloping horizontally. It indicates the present sideways trend. The pair is below the 25% range of the daily stochastic. The pair is approaching the oversold region. EUR/GBP is now in bearish momentum.

General Outlook for EUR/GBP
The EUR/GBP pair is facing rejection at level 0.9200. The pair is likely to resume the downtrend. According to the Fibonacci tool, the pair will fall and reach a level 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. That is, it will reach a low of 0.8870.



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AUDUSD Stays Under Heavy Selling Pressure Beneath the 0.7030 Level

AUDUSD Stays Under Heavy Selling Pressure Beneath the 0.7030 Level

AUDUSD Price Analysis – September 24

The AUDUSD pair extended its recent pullback from levels beyond the 0.7400 mark and experienced some heavy selling for the 5th day in a row. The downward momentum pushed the pair to two-month lows, beneath the 0.7030 level, and may act as a catalyst for a further near-term depreciating move.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7413, 0.7285, 0.7150
Support Levels: 0.6921, 0.6684, 0.5506
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
Technical indicators are almost flashing over-sold conditions on the daily chart as the RSI is on the brink of slipping beneath the 25 marks. In the larger sense, meanwhile, the recovery from the medium-term bottom of 0.5506 level is seen as reversing the entire long-term downtrend from the high level of 1.1079.

There is no validation that it has been finished. A further rise to 38.2 percent retracement from 1.1079 level to 0.5506 (2020 low level) at 0.7620 level until topping might still be expected. That being said, continuous trading beneath the moving averages 5 (now at level 0.7100) may improve the chances that it’ll be completed and shift attention back to low level 0.5506.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The decrease in AUDUSD is now decreasing to as low as 0.7016 level, and intraday bias persists on the downside. The recent decline is seen as a complete growth correction from 0.5506 to 0.7413 levels. As such, AUD/USD appears likely to test the lower levels of horizontal support, presently below the level of 0.70.

At 0.6684 levels, a steeper decrease can be seen at 38.2 percent retracement from 0.5506 to 0.7413 levels. To indicate completion of the plunge, a breach of 0.7150 support turned resistance level is required on the upside. Anything else, even in the event of recovery, the near-term outlook may now stay bearish.

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AUD/JPY Continues Downtrend, May Reach Initial Target at Level 73.50

AUD/JPY Continues Downtrend, May Reach Initial Target at Level 73.50

Key Resistance Levels: 74.00, 76.00, 78.00
Key Support Levels: 58.00, 60.00, 62.00

AUD/JPY Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a downward move. On September 8 downtrend, a green retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. It indicates that the pair will fall and reach the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. That is, it will reach a low of level 73.50. The pair may continue to trend lower.

AUD/JPY – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The pair has fallen to level 27 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. The price is in the oversold region . The market may soon have the emergence of buyers. The price is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline 50.

AUD/JPY Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is in a bearish trend. The price is falling in a descending channel. If the price breaks the support line, the downtrend will continue.

AUD/JPY – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The AUD/JPY pair is currently below the 20% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates a bearish momentum but the price has reached the oversold region. The implication is that buyers are likely to emerge to push prices up. However, in a trending market, the oversold conditions may not hold.


General Outlook for AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY pair was earlier in a downtrend. The selling pressure is ongoing. Buyers are yet to emerge. According to the Fibonacci tool, the market will fall and reached a low of 2.0 Fibonacci extension level.


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EURUSD Dives Lower Towards the 1.1600 Level As Downside Traction Grows

EURUSD Dives Lower Towards the 1.1600 Level As Downside Traction Grows

EURUSD Price Analysis – September 24

The selloff around the single currency stays unhindered while EURUSD dives lower towards fresh 2-month lows in the 1.1645/40 range on Thursday. EURUSD is extending the phase lower for the 5th day in a row amidst the preference of investors for safe-haven reinforcing further the demand for the USD.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.2032, 1.1852, 1.1685
Support Levels: 1.1495, 1.1183, 1.0870
EURUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
As seen on the daily basis, EURUSD reported new 2-month lows at 1.1626 level. Despite changes, the pattern of the pair stays positive and bearish moves are only considered corrective. The pair is currently losing 0.16 percent at the level of 1.1640 and faces immediate support at 1.1606 (monthly low level) seconded by level 1.1495.

In the wider sense, the increase from the level of 1.0635 is seen as the third phase of the trend from the level of 1.0339. A more upside rally should be seen at the next phase of 1.2032 to cluster resistance. As long as the 1.1422 resistance turned support level holds, this can stay as the preferred scenario.
EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The EURUSD intraday bias lies on the downside. The drop from the level of 1.2011 may seek a retracement of 38.2 percent from 1.0635 to 1.2011 at the level of 1.1495. For now, such a decline is seen as a corrective step. Therefore, to include downside and bring rebound, we may aim for strong support from the 1.1495 marks.

The continuous breach there, nonetheless, may open the path to 61.8 percent at 1.1495 level retracement. On the upside, the slight resistance level beyond the 1.1750 level would first transform intraday bias neutral. In general, with near term rallies with a chance to sell, the momentum is more and more appropriately positioned.

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EUR/AUD Price Analysis — September 24

EUR/AUD Price Analysis — September 24

The European stock markets fell sharply early on Thursday, as investors continue to scramble over fears that a second wave of the deadly Coronavirus in the coming winter in the northern hemisphere could derail an economic recovery.

France has joined other European countries in intensifying its restrictions on social gatherings on Wednesday, as infections and hospital admittances pick up. The U.K. and Belgium announced additional restrictions 48 hours earlier.

However, some good news came out of Europe on Thursday, as the sentiment surrounding the French manufacturing industry continued on a modest recovery through September. Traders will now be using the recently released German Ifo Business Climate index and the upcoming weekly US employment data to determine their next move in the market today.

Meanwhile, the AUD has been put under pressure on Thursday as the global risk sentiment—which it thrives off—continues to fade, diminishing the Aussie’s appeal as a higher-yielding asset.

This week’s comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia has also acted as a disservice for the Aussie, as investors modify their positions ahead of a possible rate cut in October.

EUR/AUD – 4-Hour Chart

EUR/AUD Value Forecast — September 24

EUR/AUD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 1.6567, 1.6800, and 1.7000

Demand Levels: 1.6336, 1.6000, and 1.5960

The EUR/AUD has been accelerating upwards through the week to record fresh monthly highs around 1.6576 just a few hours ago. However, the upwards surge has been strongly resisted by the strong 1.6567 resistance in the meantime.

Buyers will have to increase their activities to break above this line in the near-term. Failure to do so could send the EUR/AUD on a slight correction to the 200 SMA (1.6336), where this pair could be met with strong dip-buying.

Meanwhile, a break above the 1.6567 resistance could send the pair to the 1.6800 level and, subsequently, the 1.7000 psychological line once again.

It’s worth mentioning, however, that the EUR/AUD has been trading within a wide range since early June between the 1.6567 resistance and the 1.6100 support.

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GBPJPY Rebounds From Fresh Lows of 133.00 Zone Despite Weakness

GBPJPY Rebounds From Fresh Lows of 133.00 Zone Despite Weakness

GBPJPY Price Analysis – September 23

The GBPJPY cross once again showed some resilience below the level of the 134.00 as it moves up and staged a goodish rebound from fresh lows of the 133.00 zone. The cross rallied around 80 pips from daily swing lows, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the momentum.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 147.95, 142.71, 138.38
Support Levels: 133.04, 131.75, 129.29
GBPJPY Long term Trend: Ranging
On the daily, the lack of any strong follow-through buying suggests that the medium to long term bearish pressure might still be far from being over. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 134.12-135.00 horizontal resistance levels.

As long as the 147.95 resistance level holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, a firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. The focus will then be turned to the 156.59 resistance level for confirmation.
GBPJPY Short term Trend: Bearish
GBPJPY’s fall from 142.71 level is still in growth and intraday bias remains on the downside. As observed earlier, the entire corrective rebound from the 123.99 level might have resolved at 142.71 level. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart, nonetheless, nevertheless lead to a recovery from over-selling conditions.

Besides that, at 131.75 levels next, a steeper decline may be seen at 61.8 percent retracement from 123.99 to 142.71 levels. Until initiating another decline, on the upside, beyond 135.74 minor resistance level may switch bias neutral and trigger consolidations.

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After Breaking Lower EURCAD Trends Beneath 1.5675 Level in Sideways Market

After Breaking Lower EURCAD Trends Beneath 1.5675 Level in Sideways Market

EURCAD Price Analysis – September 23

The common European currency has surged by 44 pips or 0.50% against the Canadian Dollar in the last 24 hrs. EURCAD had found buyers around the 1.5570 level for the 4th in 5 days. The EURCAD registered an intraday low of 1.5540 after crude oil prices stay relatively calm on Wednesday, failing to provide a directional clue to EURCAD.

Key levels
Resistance Levels: 1.6153, 1.5970, 1.5675
Support Levels: 1.5540, 1.5039, 1.4724
EURCAD Long term Trend: Ranging
In the larger context, the fall from 1.5970 level is seen as the third phase of the corrective pattern from 1.6153 (high) level. The sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4258 level to 1.6153 at 1.5970 levels may aim a test on 1.3783 (low) level.

But we’d expect a loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, a break of the 1.5675 resistance level is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, the outlook will stay ranging.EURCAD Short term Trend: Ranging
Intraday bias in EURCAD stays in a range as a rebound from the level at 1.5540 short term bottom is in progress. The further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.5675 to 1.5414 at 1.5540 levels. At this point, we’re viewing the rebound as a corrective move.

Hence, we’d look for a topping sign around there. Meanwhile, on the downside, a break of 1.5540 minor support levels is needed to indicate the completion of the rebound. Otherwise, the further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

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