Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — September 25

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — September 25

Q3 is not turning out fine for the equity markets as many had expected. After what could be described as one of the sharpest bull runs over the past six months, American equities have come under serious selling pressure in September.

While there’s high optimism over a possible vaccine by the end of the year, it appears that ‘normalcy’ will not be restored until next spring or summer at best. This, coupled with the upcoming Presidential Election in the US and the political stalemate over the next round of fiscal stimulus in Congress, sets the equity markets for a rocky Q3 and Q4 ahead.

The post-March rally saw the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) grow by as much as 88% from March’s low to September’s high. The Dow Jones (DJIA) and the S&P 500 (SPX) were not left out of the bull run, as both rose by over 60% from March to September.

What makes it even more unbelievable was that these sharp rallies occurred at a time when the world was battling a deadly pandemic that brought many businesses and governments to its knees.

NDX – Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 25

NDX Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 11050, 11307, and11650.

Demand Levels: 10720, 10520, and 10300.

The NDX remains in a downwards spiral as the ‘effect of the season’ begins to set in. The index has now recorded a new two-month low at 10677, just a few days ago.

Some bears have even set their eyes on the 10k psychological level in the longer-term. However, to reach that level, the Nasdaq 100 will have to break below the confluence of indicators around the 10520 area (support level and 100 SMA).

Meanwhile, sellers will now be taking advantage of previous support-turned-resistance levels. One such line is the 11050 resistance, which is now a trap area for bulls.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis: More Downside Ahead

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis: More Downside Ahead

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index traded on a mixed tone through Monday and closed higher with 0.4%.

The markets found some relief yesterday following President Trump’s decision to halt the ban on Chinese social media apps WeChat and TikTok. However, traders are monitoring developments on the TikTok-Oracle deal to get clearer insights into the state of the market.

Furthermore, the developing geopolitical crisis in the Taiwan Strait also remains in the eyes of investors in the near-term.

Meanwhile, the Chinese media giant Global Times announced in a recent report that Beijing was considering placing HSBC in its Unreliable Entity List (UEL) following the discovery of its linkage with the embattled Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s case.

In other news, the VIX volatility index has etched lower over the past two weeks, suggesting that the NDX’s recent bearishness might be a healthy correction in the middle of a bull run. However, indicators show that there could be more consolidation in the coming days and weeks.

Moving on, market participants will be looking at the FOMC meeting tomorrow for clues on what the market could do next.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 22

NDX Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 11050, 11307, and 11595.

Demand Levels: 10840, 10522, and 10220.

The NDX is currently struggling with the 200 SMA around the 10963 area, where the price currently is. Also, a new downward-facing trendline has emerged, indicating that this bearish spate could last a while longer. The index might have a hard time breaking above the 11050 resistance, which could send it on another bear-run below the 10522 support and closer to the 10220 support.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — September 18

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — September 18

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) climbed higher on Friday following a two-day sell-off in tech-related stocks, as worries over the ever-increasing number of Coronavirus cases and downtrodden expectations of economic recovery continue to weigh heavily on the S&P 500(SPX) and the Dow futures (DJIA).

Wall Street’s top-three indexes rose earlier this week as investors anticipated a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. However, all weekly gains were erased as the central bank failed to provide any concrete details concerning its stimulus plans.

The SPX and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) have come under pressure as investors dump high-flying tech-related stocks for industrial and transportation firms.

Out if the eleven major S&P indexes, industrials (SPLRCI), materials (SPLRCM), and energy (SPNY) have risen by more than 2% over the week, while communication services (SPLRCL), and consumer discretionary (SPLRCD) have recorded significant declines.

Meanwhile, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) grew by 2.1% in pre-market trading following some analysts’ decision to up their price targets on the electric carmaker’s shares as we head into the highly-anticipated “Battery Day” event next week.

In other news, volatility will likely be erratic today given the quarterly expiration of the US stock options, index futures, and options contracts.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 18

NDX Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 11305, 11650, and 11890.

Demand Levels: 11150, 11050, and 10840.

The NDX was wracked with heavy selling yesterday but was later saved by the 10950 support in the mid-North American session on Thursday. The index witnessed a modest rebound to the 11130 area, where it currently trades at press time (pre-market).

If the index can hold above this level, we could see it reclaim the 11650 resistance, where a confluence of indicators lay (11650 resistance and 50 SMA). It seems likely that this could be the case considering that it is in neutral territories on our MACD indicator.

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Nasdaq Set for Another Bull Run as Risk Appetite Grows

Nasdaq Set for Another Bull Run as Risk Appetite Grows

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures have experienced a slight retrace in the early Asian session on Tuesday, after rising by about 1.8% on Monday. This came on the back of an announcement by the CEO of Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Albert Bourla, that a COVID-19 vaccine could be available for deployment to the public by the end of the year. This was the major risk-boosting factor for Wall Street.

Meanwhile, US tech giant Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) is looking more likely to acquire TikTok’s US operations, after Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) stepped down. This helped Oracle’s share price jump by about 4% before a trading halt came into place.

In other news, as the global markets wait for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Thursday’s BOJ and BoE interest rate decisions, some significant economic data have come out from China.

Meanwhile, eleven of the S&P 500 (SPX) sectors also climbed higher on Monday. The bounce was led by the real estate (+2.16%), information technology (+2.07%), and materials (+1.37%) sectors. At least 88% of the index closed higher.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 15

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 11650, 11890, and 12000.

Demand Levels: 11050, 10840, and 10520.

Following the NDX’s decline on Friday, the index was met with strong support around the 11050 area. This support helped it facilitate a bounce higher to the 11300 area. Holding strongly above this level could help the Nasdaq 100 bounce back to the 11650 area, where a strong confluence of indicators (11650 resistance line and 50 SMA) lie.

We could see the NDX surge and get back into the previous ascending channel in the near-term, as it is now well within oversold conditions. That said, we should expect a bull run in the near-term.

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Nasdaq 100 Gets Thrown Into Directionless Bias as “September” Volatility Sets In

Nasdaq 100 Gets Thrown Into Directionless Bias as “September” Volatility Sets In

After three consecutive sessions of intense selling, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) seemed to finally get a breather in yesterday’s session. However, that didn’t seem to last long. The bounce witnessed yesterday cut across the S&P 500, global equities, high-yield fixed incomes, commodities, and several other industries.

That said, investors are wary about the current September trade season and the erratic volatility and liquidity it brings. This heightened volatility increases the risk of abrupt directional changes in the markets.

While we can see the prevailing effects of the “season” in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Apple (NASDAQ: APPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), other top tech players, Nasdaq 100’s -11% decline through Tuesday followed by the sudden 3% recovery yesterday, followed by yet another wipeout. This makes it difficult to pinpoint the market’s directional bias.

This has thrown further uncertainty and worry over the prospects of a V-shaped global economic recovery. Some analysts worry that the risk tone of the season could cause the floor under the equities industry to cave.

Furthermore, the recent development in the US Congress of a “slimmed-down” fiscal stimulus package failing to get out of the Senate has bolstered the budding risk-off sentiment.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 11

NDX Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 11307, 11650, and 11890.

Demand Levels: 11050, 10840, and 10520.

The NDX has been thrown into a state of uncertainty since Tuesday and has remained in a wide consolidation range between 11650 and 11050. The index appears to have broken out of our longstanding ascending channel and is struggling with the 11050 support level.

The index has to fight to stay above this support area in the near-term so it doesn’t fall to the 10840-500 support area. Also, given the uncertainty of the times, it is not clear what the NDX will do next.

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Nasdaq 100 in Trouble as President Trump Moves Against Sino-US Trade Deal

Nasdaq 100 in Trouble as President Trump Moves Against Sino-US Trade Deal

Given the absence of significant economic data, fresh comments from President Donald Trump on the US breaking off reliance on China could cause serious problems for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting for September approaches.

However, with the incoming US Presidential election, many expected this to be a possibility given the frequency of attacks on Beijing by the US President. That said, it appears the markets are choosing not to react to the trade-related headlines.

Meanwhile, President Trump is currently lagging behind his Democratic opponent by 8% in the national polls, as 50.4% of Americans are in favor of a Biden presidency. However, the “decoupling” of the two world powers could become a likely scenario considering that the President has been closing in on the gap in recent weeks. A Sino-US trade-decoupling would be very devastating on regional risk assets.

That said, trade-related headlines could begin to hold major significance for the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jone (DJIA) in the near-term, with the current retaliatory attacks between the world powers capping any significant gains for the tech-heavy index.

NDX 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 8

NDX Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 11890, 12000, and 12330.

Demand Levels: 11307, 11160, and 11000.

The NDX continued on its retreat from its recent all-time high (12439.5) for its third consecutive day yesterday. The index appeared to have found bullish support at the 11160 support level, which facilitated a strong bounce for it after it approached that level on Friday. The bounce helped the index get back into the 7-month old ascending channel.

At press time, the NDX is faced with the 11890 strong resistance. Given the current issues surrounding the markets, it doesn’t seem likely that the index will comfortably break above this line in the near-term.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — September 4

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — September 4

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX), Dow Jones (DJIA), and the S&P 500 (SPX) saw significant declines in yesterday’s trading session. Despite being ahead of the pack since the mid-March boom, tech stocks recorded the most losses yesterday, steering the NDX into a strong bearish retracement.

Some analysts have commented that the tech industry has been in a state of ‘euphoria’ for weeks now and that Thursday’s drop was a reminder of what stocks are. Two of the biggest losers of yesterday’s crash, Apple (NASDAQ: APPL) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), have been the biggest winners before now.

Tesla, which many believed to have been exhibiting bubble-like signs for most of this year, has seen its worst session since May. Continued weakness in the tech sector could dramatically turn the recent investor exhilaration to palpable fear.

That said, yesterday’s crash is not a replay of March’s ‘stock-Armageddon’ as many investors are claiming. September is usually a very erratic month for the equity markets as intense volatility has always been seen around this period for the past 40 years. Couple this with the current Coronavirus crisis and the upcoming US Presidential election and you can begin to understand the weighty volatility looming ahead.

NDX 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 4

NDX Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 12000, 12420, and 12600.

Demand Levels: 11650, 11307, and 11160.

The NDX has seen a sharp drop over the past couple of hours as volatility picks up. Yesterday’s fall was strongly supported by the 11650 support, which helped the index approached the 11890 resistance again but failed to break above. That said, the effects from the NFP data report today will likely determine what the NDX will do next.

However, Nasdaq 100 remains well within the range of our ascending channel.

Meanwhile, the tech index has now entered overbought conditions, which could extend its decline in the near-term.

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Nasdaq 100 Remains Relentless in Its Bullishnes

Nasdaq 100 Remains Relentless in Its Bullishnes

The US stock markets traded on a mixed sentiment yesterday as the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) continued to scale higher hurdles while the Dow Industrials (DJIA) dragged behind. Many sectors in the S&P 500 index (SPX) traded lower, with the energy sector leading in losses while healthcare rose with the trend.

However, the SPX has rounded off August with its best performance since April. The index grew by more than 7%, snapping multiple all-time highs along the way.

Meanwhile, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: APPL) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) led the way with gains after the companies’ stock split went into effect yesterday. Tesla gained more than 12% as investors continue to jostle for the electric vehicle manufacturers’ shares.

Market participants will be looking at the ISM data, set for release later today, for clues to how the US economy performed in August. Also, the Labor Department will be reporting the highly-coveted non-farm payroll report on Friday.

Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair, Clarida, went on record to say that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates simply because the unemployment rate was dropping. Despite the heavy bullishness seen in the NDX and SPX, the VIX volatility index etched back above the 25% level, which is indicative of some nervousness in the market and a potential reversal in September.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 1

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 12190, 12270, and 11735.

Demand Levels: 12000, 11890, and 11650.

Nasdaq 100 remains in a strong bullish trend in our ascending channel. We appear to be approaching key resistance at 12400. Failure to clear that resistance could send us back to the 11890 supply level in the near-term.

Meanwhile, based on our MACD indicator, we’re currently in overbought conditions and a slight retrace might be underway.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — August 28

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — August 28

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was torn between bullish and bearish following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at yesterday’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The equities market wasn’t alone in this volatility rush as gold (XAU/USD), the US Treasuries, and the US dollar (DXY) all whipsawed after the speech.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to switch their inflation policy from a fixed 2% target to an average could open the doors to inflation numbers above 2% for extended periods. That said, lower interest rates may also remain as inflation rises.

The aim of this is to create room for unemployment to decrease while inflation rises. Meanwhile, extended periods of low-interest rates may continue to bolster the risk appetite in the US equities market. However, some analysts worry that this could be negatively consequential in the long run.

The NDX has grown by about 35% in the year-to-date despite the pandemic and the upcoming US Presidential election. Given that the Fed is firmly behind them, many stocks—especially NASDAQ’s basket of high rising tech stocks—have scaled record-breaking hurdles and some analysts have cautioned that this growth is not organic but artificially stimulated by the central bank.

With its recent price action, it can be seen that Nasdaq 100 bulls are quite comfortable and will continue steering the prospects for the index in the near-term while bears remain in the ‘back seat.’

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — August 28

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 12000, 12150, and 12350.

Demand Levels: 11890, 11650, and 11500.

The NDX has displayed exceptional performance in the past few days, clearing most of our main resistance levels effortlessly. Just yesterday, the index tested the long-awaited 12000 area and the top of our ascending channel. However, it was immediately met with a fresh supply, which sent it on a modest correction to the 11890 support.

That said, a retest of the strong resistance is underway and failure to clear this level could send it on a full correction to the 11650 where a confluence of indicators lay (strong support zone and 50 SMA). This level will likely facilitate a strong bounce for the index to clear the hurdle if it comes to that.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — August 25

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — August 25

The US stock market closed with a bang on Monday with many new record highs as investors’ risk appetite got bolstered following the Food and Drug Administration’s emergency approval of a Coronavirus treatment.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) gained 0.61% after rising by 71.01 points to close around 11626.17. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also gained about 0.6% yesterday and made a record high. The Dow Jones (DJIA) grew by 1.35% and the S&P 500 (SPX) wasn’t far off with a gain of +1%.

Also, AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) share price was boosted to about 2% on the back of the news that US regulators were considering speeding-up the drug manufacturer’s Coronavirus vaccine. The drugmaker has denied having any private discussions with the Trump administration before this development.

Meanwhile, on Friday, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: APPL) provided a huge boost to the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 (which the indexes might still be reeling from) after its share price closed above $500 just a few days after it became the first public US company to reach a $2 trillion market value. Apple stock gained 1.2% yesterday.

Moving on, market participants will be looking forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments in Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium set to hold later in the week in a virtual format.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — August 25

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 11650, 11890, and 12000.

Demand Levels: 11400, 11307, and 11160.

The index remains strongly within our 4-month ascending channel and appears to likely remain so in the coming months. Yesterday’s rally saw the NDX print a new all-time high around 11728 after a decent bull-run. However, a slight retrace was seen as the restrictive attributes of 11650 resistance came into play.

If the NDX fails to take the resistance in the near-term, we could see a further correction to the 11400 resistance (21 SMA), which could facilitate a strong bounce for the index.

The next target for the Nasdaq 100 is the 11890.

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