Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 12

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 12

Futures tracking major US equity indexes fell early on Friday, as Wall Street looked set to round off the week with decent gains.

At press time, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures were down by -0.27%, while the Dow Jones (DJIA) futures and S&P 500 (SPX) futures fell by -0.28% and -0.34%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Disney shares climbed by more than 2% in the extended trading hours, following a better-than-expected earnings report for its fiscal first quarter of 2021. The entertainment behemoth revealed that it now has a whopping 95 million paid subscribers on its Disney+ streaming service.

Although February’s bullish momentum seen in Wall Street is beginning to wane, major indexes are still poised to end the week on a goodish note. The equity markets started losing bullish steam as investors remained optimistic for a smooth economic reopening and Covid stimulus distribution.

Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, recently stated that “between the ongoing medical and economic improvements, markets continue to expect a much better 2021, and that has supported prices.” He added that “fourth-quarter earnings are coming in well ahead of expectations, and analysts are now adjusting their 2021 earnings estimates upwards.”

In other news, President Joe Biden announced yesterday that his administration has secured a deal for another 200 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines from Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Pfizer, bringing the country’s total vaccine count to 600 million. He added that the US should have enough vaccine supply for all 300 million+ Americans by the end of July.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — February 12

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13770, 13800, and 13850.

Demand Levels: 13696, 13600, and 13563.

The NDX appears to be losing bullish steam, following its recent rejection from the top-end of our ascending channel. The rejection sent the tech-heavy index to the 13500 area, where more dip-buyers likely came aboard and sent the price to the 13700 area, recording a healthy correction.

That said, the index will likely resume its bullish charge next week, towards the 13850 resistance.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 9

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 9

Wall Street traded on a very upbeat momentum as investors flooded energy stocks and priced in another round of aid spending from Washington.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) rose by 0.67% yesterday to record a new all-time high around 13696. The Dow Jones (DJIA) and the S&P 500 (SPX) also recorded new ATHs with +0.76% and 0.74%, respectively.

Wall Street began the week with strong gains led by the energy sector, better-than-expected earnings report, and expectation of another round of fiscal aid.

Democrats in the US Congress recently initiated a process that would allow the Senate to bypass the Republicans and vote on Biden’s relief plan, in a process known as budget reconciliation.

While it’s becoming unlikely that the entire $1.9 trillion will get passed, analysts expect it to still be a large sum. Last week’s worse-than-expected job reports will likely boost the prospects for larger spending.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that Biden’s plan could help facilitate strong economic growth to take the US back to full employment by next year.

Reuters reported that financial aid from Democrats is expected to include about $50 billion in extra funding for US airlines, transit systems, airports, and passenger railroad Amtrak, and a new $3 billion program to assist aviation manufacturers with payroll expenses.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — February 9

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13696, 13750, and 13800.

Demand Levels: 13600, 13563, and 13450.

The NDX had a very bullish run yesterday, recording a new ATH at 13696. Not surprisingly, the index struggled with climbing further from the ATH level considering that it ran into the top-end of our ascending channel. That said, the index has to resume market today with strong momentum to help it break above the channel or risk a slowdown and even a retrace to the 13600-563 area over the coming hours and days.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 5

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 5

Futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the S&P 500 (SPX) saw record-high figures on Friday, as risk asset investors expect goodish jobs report to confirm that the worst of the labor market crisis is over, alongside additional economic stimulus.

The Labor Department is likely to report that the US economy grew by 50k jobs in January, following a 140k loss in December. The goodish pick up in job numbers in January was likely triggered by the easing of lockdown restrictions across the US.

However, a goodish jobs report still does not eliminate the need for additional government fiscal aid, as long-term unemployment prospects still seem gloomy.

President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus bill got fast-tracked earlier today, as the US Senate approved a budget plan that included the passage of the bill in the coming weeks.

The tech-heavy index is set to record its best week yet since the US elections in November, as upbeat earnings and economic data increased optimism over a speedy economic recovery. Meanwhile, last week’s retail trading frenzy appears to be fading, triggering an 80% drop in GameStop (GME) stock.

Better-than-expected corporate earnings reports so far in the fourth quarter have bolstered speculators’ expectations for the market risk mood in the coming days and weeks.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — February 5

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13650, 13700, and 13750.

Demand Levels: 13500, 13450, and 13400.

The Nasdaq 100 is on an aggressive bullish rally, with the index having broken the crucial 13600 resistance over the past few hours (pre-market data). That said, we expect this current rally to take the NDX to the 13650 price point (top-end of our ascending channel) in the coming hours.

Also, we could see a break above the prevailing channel given the current momentum in the market. Nonetheless, any fall from the current level should be heavily repelled by the 13450 support in the meantime.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 2

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — February 2

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) recorded a whopping 2.65% climb yesterday, paring back most of the losses it suffered last week. Although price action can still be seen in the new retail traders’ favorites like GameStop and AMC, a significant decline in short interest surrounding these stocks has put the markets in a different landscape compared to last week.

Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds bought and sold the most amount of stocks ever seen in the past ten years last week, which resulted in the most “de-grossing” since February 2009. While the recent deleveraging of markets could make trading popular “Reddit stocks” complicated for retail traders, the excess cash on the sidelines could benefit the broader indices.

In other news, Democrats in both the House and the Senate filed a joint budget resolution in their respective chambers yesterday, which will clear the road for President Joe Biden to pass his proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

Before now, President Biden was hopeful about passing a bipartisan bill and met with a group of ten Republican Senators to debate their $600 billion counter-proposals. However, with several Democrats rejecting a smaller stimulus bill, the Biden Administration will likely forge ahead without the approval of the Republicans on his $1.9 trillion packages.

That said, additional stimulus measures will bolster the NDX and other indices in the coming weeks.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — February 2

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13400, 13500, and 13563.

Demand Levels: 13200, 13110, and 13000.

Following the emergence of a double-top pattern and the Reddit traders’-induced market volatility, the NDX fell dramatically by more than 4% last week. However, the index has recovered most of the losses, +3%, from the recent crash.

That said, we expect full recovery to the 13400 resistance before the close of the market today, followed by an attempt at the 13563 over the week.

On the flip side, any fall from the NDX’s current price level will get strongly repelled by the 13110 support, where the base of our ascending channel lies.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 29

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 29

Wall Street traded on mixed sentiment on Thursday as investors took cues from the latest earnings reports and signs that a big squeeze in shorted stocks will persist for a while.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) recorded a 1.5% jump to the 13400 resistance before dropping near its open level, or 0.68% around 13200 at the close of the market yesterday.

Meanwhile, US shares recorded their sharpest decline in over three months on Wednesday amid a coordinated squeeze by retail traders on hedge funds holding short positions in stocks like GameStop (NYSE: GME).

This market turmoil caused some investors to seek refuge in the US dollar, as yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond were flat.

Ned Rumpeltin, the European Head of Currency Strategy at TD Securities, stated that the markets “smells like blood.” He noted that investors remained on the sidelines on Wednesday ahead of the US Federal Reserve statement. He believes that more investors should be coming on board now that the event is in the past.

Rumpeltin added that retailers could get induced to cash out their profits as we head into the weekend.

In other news, earnings reports are due from American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Mcdonalds (NYSE: MCD), Dow Chemicals (NYSE: DOW), JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ: JBLU), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Mondelez (NASDAQ: MDLZ), and Visa (NYSE: V).

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — January 29

NDX Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 13300, 13400, and 13500.

Demand Levels: 13110, 13000, and 12900.

The NDX appears to have gone into a bearish spiral to the lower end of our ascending channel around the 13000 round figure. This projected decline is confirmed by the recent formation of a double-top pattern at the 13400 resistance. We expect to see a healthy rebound from the 13000 support in the coming hours and days.

That said, a sustained decline from the 13000 psychological should be adequately repelled by the 12900.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 26

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 26

Wall Street saw a bubbly start to the new week on Monday, setting a positive tone for the busy quarterly earnings, Fed meeting, and GDP week ahead.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) traded erratically to close the day at a +0.87% gain after setting a new record high at 13563.70. The Dow Jones (DJIA) and the S&P 500 closed yesterday with decent gains as well, with +0.1% and 0.36%, respectively.

That said, investors are keenly watching out for quarterly reports from large-cap tech companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), all due tomorrow. The tech industry saw a boom from the COVID-19 pandemic, following the thriving stay-at-home practice, which bolstered several positive tech trends.

Meanwhile, stock prices of video game retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME) saw another spike yesterday, after a 51% rally on Friday to leave it more than 240% this month alone.

Moving on, the central bank (Federal Reserve) will be updating its policy on Wednesday, and the first reading of the economic growth (GDP) in Q4 will get released on Thursday. This data comes on the backdrop of an activity-filled week, as no fewer than 118 companies will publish their quarterly earnings this week, with investors looking for cues to justify the ever-rising prices against corporate earnings and revenue.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — January 26

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13500, 13563, and 13600.

Demand Levels: 13300, 13200, and 13110.

The NAS100 had a very volatile session yesterday, recording a new all-time high and a four-day low over the space of a few hours. The index broke out of our ascending channel to record a high at 13563.7 before dropping sharply to the 13200 support and immediately regaining stability above 13400.

The path of least resistance, at the moment, is tilted to the upside, meaning the NDX could climb back to its ATH and higher soon. That said, we expect to see more volatile moves in the coming days, given the event-filled backdrop this week.

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Nasdaq 100 Lead Wall Street Gains, as Biden Comes Into Power

Nasdaq 100 Lead Wall Street Gains, as Biden Comes Into Power

Wall Street recorded significant gains overnight as President Joe Biden’s transition into power improved the prospects for additional fiscal stimulus measures and other government activities to combat the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

Before this, Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen expressed her support for the new president’s $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus spending plan and opposed tax hikes, which would likely trigger more rallies across equity markets.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) led other major US indices to new record highs. S&P 500 (SPX) company gains were led by the communications services (+3.6%), consumer discretionary (+2.3%), and information technology (+2%) sectors.

The NDX rose by a whopping 2.3% to record a fresh all-time high at 13433, led by Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (+5.36%), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) (+4.57%), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (+3.65%). Meanwhile, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was the biggest gainer with a 16% jump after reporting massive subscriber growth and share buyback plans in their earning report.

Wall Street companies continued to post positive earnings reports, with 12 out of 13 S&P 500 companies surpassing market forecasts. That said, subsequent reports are expected to come in at an impressive number, which should sustain the market mood for a while.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — January 22

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13434, 13500, and 13600.

Demand Levels: 13300, 13200, and 13110.

Following a recent drop to the lower end of our ascending channel at 12793, the NDX has seen an unprecedented rebound to the top end of the channel, recording a new ATH at 13433.69. That said, we expect to see a correction in the coming hours below the 13300 support, at least.

Furthermore, our hourly MACD shows that the index is now in overbought territory, and a modest correction should be just around the corner.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 19

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 19

The Q4 earnings season is at hand, with many Wall Street firms set to report their results this week. By next week, major American banks and the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) should have all dropped their earnings report, which is expected to shake things up for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), S&P 500 (SPX), and the Dow Jones (DJIA).

Investors will be looking at the fundamental details to assess Corporate America’s performance in the winter when a second wave of the coronavirus hit the economy.

That said, analysts are very optimistic about the Q4 earnings, with an estimated EPS decline for the quarter up at -8.8% from -12.7% recorded at the end of September 2020.

In other news, despite the prevailing headwinds, the recent $1.9 trillion stimulus proposition by President-elect Joe Biden to dampen the effect of the virus-induced economic crisis has bolstered hopes for reflation. Also, the gradual rollout of COVID-19 vaccines across the globe could hasten the global economic recovery and the normalization of business activities in the medium term.

Meanwhile, base metal and crude oil prices have climbed to a multi-month high, setting good precedence for the recovery outlook.

The cycle-linked energy, materials, financials, and industrials sector have all been on an upward trajectory since the end of last year, extending a sectoral rotation from the tech industry.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — January 19

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 12900, 12966, and 13000.

Demand Levels: 12793, 12650, and 12500.

The NDX has just seen a major correction to the 12793.00 support and has hit the base of our ascending channel, indicating that we could see a strong rebound to the upper-13000 area in the coming hours and days, as the market resume from the long weekend and public holiday. That said, the 12966.00 resistance might prove a tough nut to crack and could stall the NAS100’s ascent in the meantime.

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Nasdaq 100 Prices Could Plunge as Biden’s Presidency Threatens Increased Stimulus and Taxes

Nasdaq 100 Prices Could Plunge as Biden’s Presidency Threatens Increased Stimulus and Taxes

The recent announcement that President-elect Joe Biden is considering a $1.9 trillion stimulus package has swept the momentum out of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NDX), at least in the near-term.

The index has fallen by about 2% from its recent all-time high at 13110 on January 8, as the possibility of additional stimulus measures sends bond yields higher and could precipitate a sectoral rotation from tech to growth stocks.

Biden’s aid bill makes room for an additional $1,400 in direct payments to most US citizens, increased unemployment benefits, funding of state and local governments, and additional spending to boost the distribution of coronavirus vaccines.

Meanwhile, Biden’s stance on a tax hike has also added to the NDX’s recent weakness, as he reiterated that “where we are making permanent investments, as I said on the campaign, we will pay for them by making sure that everyone pays their fair share in taxes.” The charismatic President-elect added that he plans on doing this by “closing tax loopholes for companies that ship American jobs overseas or that allow American companies to pay zero in federal income taxes.”

However, Senate Republicans will probably prove a hard nut to crack and hinder these proposed policies from getting passed. However, Democrats could bypass this hurdle by invoking the budget reconciliation process to pass tax and fiscal matters on a majority basis. As we know, the Dems currently hold more power than the Republicans in Washington, which should be good for their cause.

That said, the possibility of increased taxation and upbeat bond yields could thwart any significant gains for the NAS100 in the near-term.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — January 15

NDX Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 13000, 13100, and 13200.

Demand Levels: 12830, 12793, and 12650.

With the fundamental factors surrounding the NDX, it is unlikely that we will see a bounce to the ATH at 13110 any time soon. However, the prospects of a sustained downside move seem equally unlikely at this time. That said, the Nasdaq 100 is likely to remain rangebound between 13000 and 12800 in the meantime. We should expect to see a modest dip to the lower-12800 in the coming hours.

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Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 12

Nasdaq 100 Price Analysis — January 12

Wall Street saw a red trading session on Monday, as investors cashed out their profits after a bullish start to 2021 and amid worries of the political situation in Washington. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shaved off about 1.5% from its value after hitting a new all-time high at 13100 last week.

Last week’s rally got induced by the Democratic win in the Georgia runoff elections, which investors saw as a pointer for an additional fiscal stimulus package to bolster the pandemic-ravaged economy.

However, some investors are worried that stimulus measures could be put on hold as House Democrats begin processes to impeach US President Donald Trump, as he is accused of inciting an insurrection, following the violent attack on the Capitol by his supporters last week.

Meanwhile, Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts, has noted that investors are worried about more attacks. According to a federal law enforcement source, the FBI has warned that there could be an armed protest for Washington, and across all 50 US states, in the run-up to Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20.

However, the US Treasury bond yields soared as safe-haven assets came under pressure yesterday, with sectors like energy and finance gaining immense demand, while defensive bond proxy sectors like utilities and real estate plummeted.

Nonetheless, investors are still optimistic about additional stimulus measures in the US.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — January 12

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 13000, 13100, and 13200.

Demand Levels: 12900, 12793, and 12650.

The NDX fell yesterday after recording a new ATH at 13110 last week. This fall will likely serve as a correction for the index, albeit a fundamentally-induced decline. That said, the 12900 support has effectively repelled the attempt by bears to take the price lower.

We expect a bounce to the 13000, and possibly higher, once again in the coming hours.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

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Author : Azeez Mustapha

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Azeez Mustapha is an experienced author, trader, markets analyst, signals strategist, and funds-manager.