XAU/USD Price Analysis — September 30

XAU/USD Price Analysis — September 30

Gold (XAU/USD) etched lower through the early European session on Wednesday and was last spotted trading at the $1885 region.

The yellow metal was met with a fresh supply near the $1900 hurdle on Wednesday, which stalled this week’s bullish bounce from the $1849 support. The pullback represented the first bearish move in the past three days and was ignited by a goodish pickup in the US dollar (DXY) demand.

Meanwhile, the first US Presidential Debate between President Trump and Democratic opponent Joe Biden failed to rile the markets up, as many expected would happen. However, Trump’s assertion that the election result might not be agreed upon after Election Day has infused additional uncertainty into the markets. This comes amid the ever-increasing number of COVID-19 cases.

Other than a strong across-board recovery in the USD, an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields has added to the outflow of demand from the non-yielding commodity. Nonetheless, Trump’s comments in yesterday’s debate caused a fresh wave of global risk-aversion across markets.

Moving on, market participants will be looking at the US economic docket today—which features the ADP report, the final Q2 GDP report, Chicago PMI, and the Pending Home Sales data—for clues. Furthermore, influential comments from FOMC members later today will likely influence the greenback’s price dynamics in the North American session.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 30

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1900, $1923, and $1939

Demand Levels: $1876, $1849, and $1844

Technically, the XAU/USD has failed to break the strong $1900 psychological support. In the meantime, we expect a retest of that line, which could be very crucial to what gold does next. Meanwhile, over the past few hours, we’ve seen gold record consecutive lower highs, signaling that we could see the commodity hit the $1876 support before a retest of the $1900 line.

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Gold Poised to Continue On Its Losing Streak In the New Week

Gold Poised to Continue On Its Losing Streak In the New Week

Following a relatively steady opening in the early Asian session this week, Gold (XAU/USD) is starting to see fresh selling signs as bears strive to retest the two-month low at $1849. 

Spot gold ended last week with a fresh August low causing panic for bulls, who have now been intensely weakened. The precious metal is at the mercy of the US dollar (DXY) price dynamics amid the growing economic and political uncertainties, coupled with a resurgence of the deadly Coronavirus disease. 

At press time, the commodity is trading around $1860, a slight recovery from its daily low of $1856. Meanwhile, it appears that USD bulls have regained dominance following last week’s recovery from the prolonged consolidation. 

The greenback built on its recovery in the Asian session today as a result of the increased risk appetite in the global markets, which was triggered by widespread optimism over a strong Chinese economy recovery, following reports of a rise in the country’s industrial profits for the fourth consecutive month now. 

Also, it is expected that talks about the US fiscal stimulus will be renewed this week, which will likely dampen the safe-haven appeal of the dollar. 

Moving on market participants will be repositioning themselves as we head into the first US Presidential election debate and the Non-Farm Payrolls this week. 

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 28

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1876, $1900, and $1923

Demand Levels: $1856, $1849, and $1844

Gold remains heavily under selling pressure as traders continue to flee to riskier assets. In the meantime, the yellow metal is faced with the $1849 demand level. A break below this level opens up the possibility of an $1800 price tag for gold. 

Meanwhile, a new descending channel has emerged on our 4-hour chart, further reinforcing the bearish pressure. 

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Gold Price Analysis — September 23

Gold Price Analysis — September 23

Gold (XAU/USD) continued to etch lower through the early European session on Wednesday and has just recorded a fresh six-week low around $1873 in the past few hours.

Worries over a second wave of the deadly Coronavirus disease continued to bolster the US dollar’s (DXY) demand as the global reserve currency. This, consequently, was one of the major factors that thwarted demand for the dollar-denominated commodity and has caused weakness for the third consecutive session.

Furthermore, the underlying risk tone surrounding the equity markets has marred the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. This is the commodity’s fourth consecutive red day in the last five sessions, which could be further intensified by the fresh selling below the $1900 level.

Meanwhile, market participants will be looking at the US economic docket today—which features the release of the US Manufacturing and Services PMI—for clues. This, coupled with the second day of the congressional testimony with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will have a significant influence on the USD price action in the near-term.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 23

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1900, $1909, and $1923

Demand Levels: $1875, $1864, and $1844

Gold has now succumbed to the lasting bearish pressure and has broken below the $1900 psychological line. The yellow metal is now on territory not seen in over six weeks.

Meanwhile, gold has strayed far away from the recent bearish trendline, further energizing bears. Also, the path of least resistance is to the downside giving bears the leeway to take the price lower in the near-term.

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XAU/USD Price Analysis: Trouble for Gold As a New Bearish Pattern Emerges

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Trouble for Gold As a New Bearish Pattern Emerges

Gold (XAU/USD) appears to be trading under a depressing sentiment on Monday, following the scanty reaction to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Meanwhile, fresh statements from Fed officials later today might keep the yellow metal afloat as the apex bank has vowed to “increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace.”

After having faced strong rejection above the $1950 severally, gold was met with renewed selling pressure, which has erased about $25 from the commodity’s price in just a few hours.

The bearish pressure seen in the yellow metal can be mainly traced to the across-board rebound in the US dollar (DXY), as risk sentiment tightens its hold on Europe as Coronavirus continues to wreak havoc.

Also, it appears that market participants are holding the US currency ahead of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for later on Monday. It is expected that the Fed will maintain its dovish outlook, even into its next interest rate decision on the 5th of November, as the committee remains committed to using everything in their arsenal to bolster the economy in these trying times.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 21

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1940, $1950, and $1960

Demand Levels: $1923, $1909, and $1900

Gold has now been caught in a very tough bearish momentum on Monday as market risk picks up. The yellow metal has now formed a new downward-facing channel and is currently at the base of this channel. To break out of this downward spiral, gold will first have to break above $1950, where a confluence of technical indicators lay (strong supply level, 50 SMA, and the top of our newly formed channel).

Subsequently, other resistance levels will come into the target. Failure to do so means the commodity risks reaching the $1900 psychological support again.

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Gold Price Analysis — September 17

Gold Price Analysis — September 17

Gold (XAU/USD) etched lower through the early European session on Thursday and was last spotted trading under the $1947 resistance.

Traders appeared to be disappointed with yesterday’s Federal Reserve policy statement, which showed that the bank remained committed to keeping interest rates lower for longer to help bolster inflation. With the absence of any quantitative easing, gold traders feel less incentivized to place any aggressive bullish bets.

Gold bears have now been emboldened even further, considering that the US dollar (DXY) is beginning to rally even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the bank will be keeping its interest rates close to zero until inflation rises above 2% at a minimum.

The recent growth of the greenback can be largely attributed to the steady recoveries in major financial markets like China and the US, as recent data shows that the world powers are fast-tracking their economic recovery significantly.

Meanwhile, gold continues to be supported by the growing worries over the Coronavirus pandemic as the total global cases approach 30 million. This, coupled with the grim outlook for a sharp economic recovery in the near-term (particularly in emerging markets), could help gold facilitate a bounce back to the $2000 level.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 17

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1950, $1960, and $1983

Demand Levels: $1940, $1923, and $1909

Following the FOMC meeting yesterday, gold has, once again, gone below our ascending trendline, indicating renewed weakness. Before the meeting, the XAU/USD showed a strong inclination for maintaining a bullish momentum for the time being.

Gold is now battling with the $1940 support, at press time, as staying above that level could help the commodity in reclaiming a bullish stance. Meanwhile, a break below that level could send the precious metal to the $1923 support and lower.

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Gold to Continue Upwards as Analysts Expect a Dovish Fed Outlook

Gold to Continue Upwards as Analysts Expect a Dovish Fed Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) climbed higher through the early European session on Wednesday and was last spotted trading within the $1960 pivot zone.

The yellow metal appears to be regaining its bullish momentum as it etched closer to its two-week high yesterday. The growing weakness surrounding the US dollar (DXY) was seen as the major factor bolstering demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

Additionally, expectations of a dovish outlook by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting and a leg down in the US Treasury bond yields extended further support for the non-yielding metal. Nonetheless, the lasting risk appetite surrounding the global market could cap further price gains for gold.

The global risk appetite continues to be bolstered by the latest developments over a potential vaccine for the deadly Coronavirus disease. AstraZeneca resumed its phase-3 trials for its vaccine candidate and Pfizer has indicated that it could present the late-stage data for its vaccine by the end of October.

Meanwhile, bullish traders are advised to be cautious ahead of the FOMC monetary policy update set for later today, where the Fed is expected to announce its inflation projections. The bank will likely maintain an accommodative approach to inflation and keep interest rates lower.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 16

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: $1983, $1992, and $2000

Demand Levels: $1950, $1940, and $1923

The XAU/USD has shown decent bullish inclinations in the past few sessions as we head into the FOMC meeting. The commodity has reclaimed its position in the $1983 – $1960 pivot area. We expect gold to reach the $1983 level soon, after which we could see a retest of the $1992 resistance.

Meanwhile, gold is now back above the prevailing ascending trendline, indicating that the bullish momentum will likely continue for now.

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Gold Traders Brace for Comments and Outlook By Fed this Week

Gold Traders Brace for Comments and Outlook By Fed this Week

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading on positive sentiment as we head into the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled to begin tomorrow. The uptick appears to be preparing the commodity for a breakout above its recent consolidation range.

A dovish stance by FOMC officials in the two-day meeting will likely re-establish a bullish sentiment for the yellow metal. Comments of fresh implementation of average inflation targeting could also bolster demand for gold in the near-term.

However, if the Fed decides to emphasize the downside risks plaguing the economy and the growing separateness between Wall Street and Main Street, the yellow metal could come under renewed pressure. A pessimistic outlook by the Fed could force gold lower as it incentivizes demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar (DXY).

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 14

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: $1960, $1983, and $2000

Demand Levels: $1939, $1923, and $1906

The path of least resistance for gold appears to be towards the upside. The confluence of support at the $1939 level (strong support line and 50 SMA) will likely keep prop-up the XAU/USD in the near-term.

The commodity attempted yet another breakout today but was strongly resisted by the $1960 resistance/pivot area. However, we could see gold retest that line and likely break it in the near-term as demand picks up. This will help the commodity take back its place above the ascending trendline and battle with the $1983-60 pivot zone.

Meanwhile, the MACD is indicating that an upwards momentum is just beginning and that we could likely see the $2000 again.

On the flip side, a break below the $1939 confluence could propel gold to the $1923 once again, where the commodity will likely find strong demand once again.

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Gold Price Analysis — September 14

Gold Price Analysis — September 14

Gold (XAU/USD) climbed higher on Monday and was last spotted trading within its recent consolidation range, below the $1950 resistance.

The lasting bearish tone surrounding the US dollar (DXY), sponsored by the uncertainty of a US fiscal stimulus measure, is one of the major factors underpinning demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The chances of a massive stimulus are now at zero following the Democrats’ decision to block a Republican bill aimed at providing $300 billion in fresh Coronavirus aid.

Furthermore, the renewed Brexit tensions extended additional support to the yellow metal. However, hopes for a potential vaccine for the deadly Coronavirus disease provided some boost for the global risk sentiment. This has kept a strong lid over any potential gains for gold in the near-term.

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca announced that it would be resuming trials for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, while Pfizer has also announced that its vaccine could be ready by late October.

Additionally, investors are likely going to remain on the sidelines ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting, scheduled to commence tomorrow. This will likely cause a scarcity of volatility across markets in the near-term.

That said, gold is likely to continue on a consolidation pattern amid the absence of any significant economic releases from the US.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 14

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1950, $1960, and $1983

Demand Levels: $1939, $1923, and $1906

Gold has been trading within a consolidation range between $1937 and $1957 for its third consecutive session now, with a failed breakout to the $1966 on Thursday. The commodity remains under the strong ascending trendline, which now acts as a resistance for the commodity in the near-term.

Although bears will have a hard time taking gold below the $1939 line, giving the confluence of the $1939 support line and 50 SMA, a break above the $1950 seems unlikely considering the absence of volatility.

That said, we expect gold to continue trading within its consolidation range well into Tuesday or Wednesday.

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Gold Remains in a Narrow Channel Despite Favorable Factors

Gold Remains in a Narrow Channel Despite Favorable Factors

Gold (XAU/USD) continued on a directionless bias around the $1951 resistance in the early European session. The yellow metal ran out of steam around the $1951 level after a strong $30 overnight gain. The bounce was mainly as a result of some renewed selling around the US dollar (DXY), which usually bolsters demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

The greenback fell across the board after a goodish pickup in the shared currency following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expression of confidence in the economic outlook of the EU. Meanwhile, the ECB will be announcing its monetary policy decision later today. This report is expected to have some effects on the price action of the USD in the near-term and provide further directional clarity.

This together with a recent decline in the US equity futures lent further support to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The risk-off sentiment was further bolstered by a bearish tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which has been referred to as one of the key factors underpinning the non-yielding commodity.

Regardless of the numerous favorable conditions, gold remains under strong bearish pressure causing bulls to stay on the sidelines. That said, traders will be waiting to see a breakout in the short-term before taking any aggressive bet on gold, keeping in mind that some high-stake economic data are coming out of the US later today.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 10

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1951, $1960, and $1983

Demand Levels: $1940, $1923, and $1906

XAU/USD has been in a narrow range between $1951 to $1943 for the past 24-hours. The yellow metal remains in a battle with the long-lasting ascending trendline. A. break above that line could propel the commodity to the $1960 pivot zone. However, failure to climb higher in the near-term could induce a sharp retrace.

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Gold Bulls in Trouble as Bearish Breakout Pattern Emerges

Gold Bulls in Trouble as Bearish Breakout Pattern Emerges

Gold (XAU/USD) traded without any strong directional bias and remained in a tight range near $1930 in the early European session on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s decline was met with strong support at the $1906 line (the 50 SMA on the daily chart), where it was able to facilitate a modest bounce. The bounce was likely as a result of the fresh flight to safety amid a strong sell-off in the US stock markets.

With the global Coronavirus cases still increasing and lingering doubts over a strong US economic recovery in the near-term, AstraZeneca’s recent halt of its Coronavirus vaccine testing spurred panic in investors. This, consequently, bolstered demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.

The global risk sentiment was further disrupted by the renewed risk of a no-deal Brexit. Worries erupted after the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to abandon the Brexit talks if a deal was not agreed on by mid-October.

However, a decent uptick in the US equity futures ensured that the yellow metal stayed beaten-down. Additionally, steady buying interest for the US dollar (DXY) limited further gains for the dollar-denominated commodity, which has kept it range-bound on early Wednesday.

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — September 9

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1940, $1960, and $1983

Demand Levels: $1923, $1906, and $1900

Based on an indication from our chart, gold is on the verge of a strong breakout to the downside. On the daily chart, we can see that a triangle pattern has emerged, which is usually indicative of a breakout. However, given gold’s consistent failure to climb above the upward-facing line, a bearish breakout could occur as bulls have run out of steam.

That said, strong support remains at $1906 (50 SMA). A break below that level could open gold up to the upper-$1800 levels.

On the flip side, a sustained move above the $1940-45 resistance area could ease the bearish pressure significantly.

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