Nasdaq 100’s Current Consolidation Could be Historically Conceived

Nasdaq 100’s Current Consolidation Could be Historically Conceived

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has lost its title as the most consistent price gainer in the equity space, following a displacement of volatility and a rotation in sectoral demand. The tech-heavy index has climbed by about 7% in its month-to-date standings. However, the Dow Jones (DJIA) and the small-cap Russell 2000 index have grown by about 11% and 18%, respectively, in the same period.

As a result, the NDX to DJIA ratio has fallen close to its lowest point in the past five months, indicating the shift in investor interest. Regardless, the overall outlook of all US indices remains on the upside.

The recent announcements of potential COVID-19 vaccines most likely played determining roles in the shift in investor interest across sectors.

However, a crucial unrecognized factor also playing a role in the recent sectoral switch is seasonality.

Apparently, since 1980, October has always been the highest-volatility period on average—based on measurements from the VIX—with subsequent months witnessing a steady decline in panic by investors. That said, the last two months of the year have always been very positive for the Nasdaq 100, Dow, and S&P 500 (SPX) for the past four decades. With this, it could mean that the slowdown seen in the NDX could be a replay of history.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — November 24

NDX Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 12040, 12200, and 12439.

Demand Levels: 11800, 116507, and 11307.

The NDX has remained in a tight consolidation range between 12040 and 11800 for the past two weeks now. With no direction in mind for the meantime, the NDX might fall under the sway of new developments surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting minutes.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

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Gold Price Analysis — November 23

Gold Price Analysis — November 23

Gold (XAU/USD) traded on a directionless bias through the early trading hours on Monday and was last spotted trading close to the $1870 level.

The yellow metal has managed to stall any further declines despite its apparent bearish undertone thanks to the strong selling bias surrounding the US dollar.

The greenback came under heavy selling following speculations of additional stimulus measures by the Fed amid worries over the economic displacement due to the imposition of renewed COVID-19 restrictions across several states in the country. This development was the main factor preventing a sustained decline in the dollar-denominated commodity.

Meanwhile, the recent optimism over two potential vaccines and a treatment medication for the highly-contagious Coronavirus disease continues to bolster the global market risk mood. That said, the risk-on market bias undermined demand for risk-averse assets like gold in the meantime.

Moving on, market participants will be looking at the US economic docket today—which features the release of the flash version of the US Manufacturing and Services PMIs—for clues. Meanwhile, the most critical focus for this week will be on the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday.

XAUUSD – 4-Hour Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — November 23

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1876, $1891, and $1900

Demand Levels: $1865, $1857, and $1849

Gold has remained in a fierce battle with the $1876 resistance for the fourth consecutive session now. A sustained break above this level should help the precious metal get back on track to the $1900 round figure. However, we might witness a prevalence of the bearish momentum for a while longer. A dip from this level will get strongly supported by the $1860 region.

Persistent selling from that level will get further supported by the $1849 support. A break below that level could be disastrous for gold.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

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AUD/NZD Price Analysis — November 23

AUD/NZD Price Analysis — November 23

The AUD/NZD traded on positive in the early European session, following the release of positive data from Australia on Friday.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) released better-than-expected preliminary Manufacturing PMI readings for November. As a result, the Composite PMI saw a decent boost as well.

Also, the ASX 200 extended additional support to the Aussie following its goodish bounce last week.

Meanwhile, it got reported recently that Aussie Treasurer Josh Frydenberg signaled a tax-cut extension for domestic businesses in the country. This recent development, as confirmed by the Australian Financial Review (AFR), bolstered the risk tone surrounding the Aussie.

In other news, New Zealand reported better-than-expected Q3 Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales, indicating a drastic improvement in the country’s economy.

The data added to the positive tone that had been set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policymakers. Although the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr cited a gloomy picture of the global COVID-19 resurgence in his latest speech, the Governor firmly stood against negative rates in the near-term while lauding the performance of the Pacific economy in the face of the pandemic.

AUDNZD – Hourly Chart

AUD/NZD Value Forecast — November 23

AUD/NZD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 1.0600, 1.0650, and 1.0725

Demand Levels: 1.0520, 1.0485, and 1.0400

The AUD/NZD is currently trading with a bullish tone following its recent bounce off the 1.0520 support level. That said, we are likely to see the pair make a break for the 1.0600 resistance soon. This proposed bullish momentum will get negated if the AUD/NZD sees a sustained break below the 1.0520 support.

Nonetheless, given that it’s still the start of the week and volatility is sparse, we should expect some sideways movement in the coming hours.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

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Markets May Continue to Range As USD Weakness Persists

Markets May Continue to Range As USD Weakness Persists

Markets including equities, gold, and currencies were generally limited in ranging mode last week. News of coronavirus vaccines failed to give the mood another boost. Instead, investors are looking for fresh inspiration. The dollar finished as the worst but remained within the previous week’s range, except for the kiwi. The next weakest positions are the euro and the Swiss franc. Jena followed Kiwi in second place and then Sterling.

While breakouts are pending, we look at the outlook for stocks, earnings, dollar, gold, and oil below, as well as possible relationships. Signals are still conflicting as bullish stocks suggest a downside risk for the dollar. However, weakness in gold indicates some resilience in the dollar. Besides, the price of oil fluctuated within an acceptable range, which indicates a not entirely optimistic mood of investors. The same is reflected in the declining yield on 10-year bonds.

Last week, the dollar declined in a relatively corrective manner. While the near-term outlook remains bearish, the downside momentum does not yet guarantee an early breakout. Instead, a solid break of the 55-day EMA (now at 93.28) will extend the consolidation pattern from m91.74 with another upside step through 94.30 resistance. If this happens, it should be accompanied by a drop in stocks and returns, which means a return to risk aversion. However, a decisive break of 91.74 will resume the full decline from 102.99.
Economic Progress Anticipated
The greenback remained weak against most of its major competitors, but the major pairs held their usual levels. Market participants are looking not only at macroeconomic data but also at news related to the coronavirus.

Several of the leading companies developing vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have reported the first results of their Phase 3 test, with encouraging results. However, at the same time, there were 11,752 new coronavirus deaths globally on Friday, making this the deadliest day since the pandemic began.

These numbers lead to various restrictive measures that could lead to a slower economic recovery, which remains to be seen, and a steeper downturn before a return.

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Binance (BNBUSD) Price: Ranging Movement Continues Within $29 and $26 Price Level

Binance (BNBUSD) Price: Ranging Movement Continues Within $29 and $26 Price Level

BNBUSD Price Analysis – November 21

The breakup of the price at the resistance level of $29 and the daily candle closes above the $29 will make the price to reach the resistance levels at $31 and $33. In the same vein, the breakdown and the closing of the daily candle below the support level of $26 will reduce the price to the support level of $24 and $22.

BNB/USD Market
Key levels:

Supply levels: $29, $31, $33
Demand levels: $26, $24, $22

BNBUSD Long-term Trend: Ranging

On the long-term outlook, BNBUSD is in the ranging mode. The crypto remains within the range of $29 resistance level and $26 support level. The coin is displaying a lot of whipsaw movement in the daily chart. The bulls are yet to gain enough momentum to break up the resistance level of $29, likewise, the bears have no strength to break down the support level of $26 and the price is trading within the range.

BNBUSD daily chart, November 21

The two EMAs are close to each other, the price is trading over the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA within the range to indicate that consolidation is in progress. The breakup of the price at the resistance level of $29 and the daily candle closes above the $29 will make the price to reach the resistance levels at $31 and $33. In the same vein, the breakdown and the closing of the daily candle below the support level of $26 will reduce the price to the support level of $24 and $22.

BNBUSD medium-term Trend: Ranging

The Bulls pushed the coin to penetrate the resistance level of $29 but they are unable. In the same way, the bears could not break down the support level of $26 when it was tested many times. The price continues its ranging movement within the $29 and $26 price level.

BNBUSD 4-hour chart, November 21

The 9 periods EMA is interlocked to the 21 periods EMA and the coin is trading around and over the two EMAs to indicate that consolidation is in progress. However, the Relative Strength Index period 14 is bending down at 50 levels which indicates sell signal.

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Mild Reaction on Canada and UK Improved Retail Sales Data

Mild Reaction on Canada and UK Improved Retail Sales Data

The dollar would probably finish with its worst performance in a week, followed by the yen and the Swiss franc. But it stays in the same range as other major pairs and crosses. Investors are struggling to decide which direction to go, despite vaccine news and a rift between the US Treasury and the Fed. The slow progress of the Brexit negotiations and the infection of the EU delegation with the coronavirus were also ignored. Both the UK and Canada released strong retail sales data today but did not generate many reactions.

Data released on Friday showed that retail sales in Canada rose for the fifth straight month in September, climbing 1.1% above the 0.2% consensus. National Bank of Canada analyst Jocelyn Paquet notes that spending exceeded pre-crisis levels in nine of the 11 retail sub-sectors under review after September profits.

Retail sales in the UK in October grew by 1.2% mom, by 5.8% YoY. Retail sales excluding fuel increased by 1.3% mom, by 7.8% YoY. The last three months have seen slower growth, with October 2020 sales 6.7% higher than before the February lockdown.

Also released was the data on net borrowing of the public sector in October to 21.6 billion pounds sterling. The Gfk consumer confidence index fell to -33 in November. Producer price index in Germany in October amounted to 0.1% m / m, -0.7% y / y.
US Dollar Index and Market Reaction
In the meantime, traders continue to track the progress of the coronavirus pandemic in the US and the rest of the world, optimistic that an effective vaccine will lose some of its recent brilliance at the same time.

The index manages to attract some buyers at the end of the week and after six straight losing sessions. The weekly dollar decline appears to have met some serious resistance in the 92.20 regions, however, this area coincides with the 6-month support line (from 2020 peaks on March 20).

The recent DXY decline came to a halt right ahead of the 92.00 area, where some decent controversy appears to have emerged. Meanwhile, the dollar remains focused on the post-election scenario and the outlook for the US economy under the Biden administration, while monitoring the impact of the second wave of the pandemic on economic recovery.

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Nasdaq 100 Gets a Boost as US Lawmakers Resume COVID-19 Stimulus Talks

Nasdaq 100 Gets a Boost as US Lawmakers Resume COVID-19 Stimulus Talks

US equity indexes closed higher on Thursday, as investors’ market confidence got revitalized following mentions of Washington lawmakers coming back together to pass a Coronavirus fiscal stimulus package to ease the pandemic-induced economic crisis.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) rose by 90.72 points or (0.76)and closed at 11985.43, while the Dow Jones (DJIA) and S&P 500 gained 0.36% and 0.39%, respectively.

As mentioned earlier, yesterday’s rally was sponsored mainly by the revived COVID-19 stimulus talks, as the virus continues to ravage the US. at press time, there are 12 million infection cases in the US, with a tragic 258,363 recorded deaths.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Democrat-New York, noted that Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican-Kentucky, had acceded to renew talks on a new COVID-19 aid package relief. Before this point, Democrats and Republicans in Congress could not agree on a suitable size and scope of a potential stimulus bill.

That said, the recent breakthrough was seen as a very positive development and boosted market mood. However, investors remain cautious, as many of them trooped back into large-cap tech-related stocks that thrived in the previous lockdown period.

That said, Wall Street is expected to see some choppiness in the coming sessions as investors monitor fresh Coronavirus developments closely.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — November 20

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 12070, 12200, and 12439.

Demand Levels: 11890, 11650, and 11307.

Although the sentiment surrounding the NDX is upbeat, the index remained within a consolidation range between 12070 and 11770 over the past week.

Meanwhile, the index is trading within a wedge, providing expectations of a sharp breakout—most likely to the upside—soon.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

 

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Amid an Increase in Initial Jobless Claims, USD Continues Recovery

Amid an Increase in Initial Jobless Claims, USD Continues Recovery

The dollar is climbing moderately today despite the first increase in jobless claims in five weeks. Euro and Swiss franc are followed closely. The global markets are still undergoing consolidated trading, with moderate weakness in European equities and US futures. The Australian dollar is pushing the New Zealand dollar down.

However, there is no clear development in the forex market yet. Most major pairs and crosses remain within last week’s range. A breakthrough is still expected. Consolidation trading continues with the dollar as whole rallies during today’s session, followed by the Swiss franc. On the other hand, the pound sterling is partly pulling back this week’s gains, along with the Aussie and the Kiwi.

News about coronavirus vaccines failed to cheer investors up. Instead, there is growing concern about new infections and restrictions around the world. However, in general, major pairs and crosses are limited by last week’s range.
US Initial Jobless Claims Increases to 742k, Continuing Claims Plunged to 6.37m
The latest wave of COVID and renewed efforts to combat its spread are putting pressure on the labor market recovery. The number of jobless claims in the US will remain at around 700,000, indicating stabilization after a gradual decline, but closures and restrictions could trigger a second wave of layoffs.

The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States increased from 31,000 to 742,000 in the week ended November 14, which is higher than expectations of 707,000. The four-week moving average of initial filings fell 14 thousand to 742 thousand. For the week ended November 7, the number of ongoing claims fell from -429 thousand to 6372 thousand.

The number of applications is likely to remain high amid the latest wave of COVID, and the number of long-term unemployed will rise. Also in the US, the PM Index fell to 26.3 in November from 32.3, but beat expectations of 24.0. In Canada, employment in the ADP fell by -7.5 thousand in October.

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EUR/AUD Price Analysis — November 19

EUR/AUD Price Analysis — November 19

The EUR/AUD traded on a bullish tone above the 1.6250, as the focus moved to the European Union (EU) summit set to hold later today, where leaders will likely push for a coronavirus recovery fund.

The Eurozone is on the brink of a renewed economic contraction with the second wave of the Coronavirus sweeping across the currency bloc. That said, a decisive fiscal response is needed to bolster the EUR in the near-term.

According to a recent interview by Reuters, an unnamed French official said that European leaders could forge ahead with the post-COVID-19 recovery fund and EU budget without Hungary and Poland if the two countries continue to delay adopting the proposed long-term budget.

A budget deal will immediately ease the pressure on the European Central Bank to implement additional easing measures and boost inflation expectations, which will improve the demand for Euro.

Meanwhile, Australia’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak remains very effective and successful. Also, Victoria is opening up and has boosted new jobs recorded in October, as the country announced a whopping +179K jobs as opposed to the expected -30K.

However, the tensions between China and Australia continue to escalate even though both nations recently signed the RCEP ‘free trade agreement.’ This rift has caused the Aussie to suffer some weakness in the meantime.

EURAUD – 4-Hour Chart

EUR/AUD Value Forecast — November 19

EUR/AUD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 1.6330, 1.6400, and 1.6512

Demand Levels: 1.6200, 1.6100, and 1.6000

The EUR/AUD has picked some bullish steam, following its recent rejection from the 1.6200 psychological support. We expect to see a healthy stride towards the top end of our descending channel around 1.6400 as the EUR to find some support from the EU meeting later today.

However, it is worth mentioning that the pair has been in a consolidation range between 1.6200 and 1.6330 for the past few days. That said, a decisive break above the 1.6330 resistance should confirm our upward bias.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.

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Dollar and Euro Stay Mild As Gold Pullback Continues

Dollar and Euro Stay Mild As Gold Pullback Continues

There was a mixed sentiment on the risks of coronavirus, as markets watched the pandemic and stocks trade as if it were a post-covid world.

As for the euro, most of the trading took place through the dollar, but European policy may again prove problematic for the single currency.

While the US dollar slipped from its previous lows following housing data, the dollar was still in its fifth straight decline as the Pfizer news gave investors the willingness to take risks. The DXY dollar index fell to 92.21 but has since recovered somewhat to 92.37.
Commodity currencies are somewhat softer, along with the dollar.

Technically, though, Gold’s pullback could be a sign of a comeback in the Dollar. On the other hand, the Swiss franc and the yen are more stable along with the sterling. At the mid-week, the dollar is the weakest at the moment, followed by the Swiss franc. The New Zealand dollar is the strongest, followed by the yen. But in general, major pairs and crosses are mostly limited by last week’s range.

The dollar and the euro are trading slightly lower today in relatively weak consolidation markets. Yen and Kiwi, on the other hand, are more powerful. There is no clear sign of a range breakout yet.
COVID-19 and Fading Vaccine News Impact
At this point, financial markets as a whole have turned into consolidation as vaccine news continues to fade. Pfizer has provided further positive news on coronavirus vaccines. The final results of the later stage of the study showed an efficiency of 95%. The company is ready to apply for an emergency permit in the United States within a few days. However, investors have been showing a cool head so far.

According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. coronavirus death toll is currently 250,029, which is a higher death toll than any other country in the world, and markets are paying close attention to this.

Globally, more than 56 million people have been infected and over 1.3 million have died, according to Johns Hopkins.

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