AUD/USD Pair Remain Pressured at 0.7200 Among Lively China GDP, Milder Retail and Risk-off State

Updated:

AUD/USD penetrates an in-day low around 0.7195, down 0.25% on a day, following the release of China’s major economics during early Monday.

Adding to the mixed data, risk-off state and strong USD also sinks the market’s value.

Factors Affecting the Market

China’s last quarter GDP increased above 0.2% before and 1.1% estimates to 1.6% QoQ while the YoY numbers increased to 4.0% versus 3.6% expected and 4.9% last presentations.

Moving forward, Industrial production for last month (December) increased beyond 3.6% market agreement and 3.8% before to 4.3%. On the other hand, Retail Sales fell below 3.7% market estimates and 3.9% last reading to 1.7% during December.

The coronavirus anxieties and talks about the rate at which the Fed hikes contributed to the sinking of the pair price, majorly due to the perceived risk status.

While in Australia, the fourth successive day of reduced COVID infection was witnessed, with the latest recorded to be about 65,000. It should be noticed that  New South Wales recorded the highest daily COVID-related deaths on Friday of 29 deaths, which recently reduced to 17 deaths.

The Australian health authorities are confident that NSW will witness more reduction in its COVID-19 hospitalization in the coming week, as the state figures track “fairer scenario” forecasted.

Going by the early signs of the stronger US Treasury yield and risk-off state, AUD/USD value is likely to continue being pressured, but a pale calendar for US bank holidays will restrain the market movement.

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Annual Forecast for AUDUSD (2022)

Updated:

AUDUSD Annual Forecast – AUDUSD Is Back in Contention for Higher Price Levels

The annual Forecast for AUDUSD sees it pump back up in contention for higher price levels. Having been seriously battered in the first quarter of 2020, the Australian Dollar took advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to strengthen itself at the expense of the dipping value of the US dollar. The market, therefore, kept rising with strong bullish strides during the enforced lockdown to bring itself back into contention for even higher price levels.


AUDUSD Significant Levels

Supply Levels: 0.77230, 0.80380, 0.87410
Demand Levels: 0.61410, 0.66780, 0.70070

Annual Forecast for AUDUSD (2022)AUDUSD Long Term Plan: Bullish

AUDUSD had halted its decline by utilizing the strong support at 0.70070. Subsequently, the buyers began engineering a breakout to the upside for the market. Therefore, the market went into an annual consolidation that spanned from mid-2015 to mid-2017. The market took the next step upward, only to face a double rejection, which led to a free fall in the market. The price slumped through several key levels till it found respite at 0.61410.

This period coincided with the high period of the COVID-19, during which the Australian Dollar pumped up its value. The upthrust of the price halted suddenly below 0.77230, coinciding with the 2021 new year’s day. The market was well defended at this level, which coincides with the upper border of the Bollinger Band. Following that, the price falls back to the strong support level of 0.70070, trading below the Bollinger Band mid-line.

Annual Forecast for AUDUSD (2022)AUDUSD Medium Term Plan: Ranging

AUDUSD is putting itself back in contention for a higher price level as it begins another session of consolidation. The weekly chart shows that the market has bounced off the demand level and is currently negotiating the middle line of the Bollinger Band on its way upward to test the 0.77230 resistance level. The Stochastic Oscillator also shows its signal line gliding upward in favor of the bulls.

The current consolidation could become annual depending on how long it takes for the bulls to break out of it (or the bears take over). The forecast is for the market to rise to the next resistance at 0.80380.

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AUDUSD Encounters a Setback to Its Upward Recovery

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – January 6

AUDUSD encounters a setback as it strives to regain lost ground. Since dropping to the 0.69980 significant level, the price has immediately rebounded, pushing through the key levels with much effort. However, AUDUSD now encounters a setback at the 0.72660 resistance with depleted strength. Therefore, liquidity has dropped even beyond the next significant level. The price still has a chance if it recovers from the setback early, else it could all go south for the market.


AUDUSD Significant Levels

Resistance Levels: 0.73250, 0.72660
Support Levels: 0.71780, 0.70960

AUDUSD Encounters a Setback to Its Upward RecoveryAUDUSD Long Term Trend: Bullish

From late last year, AUDUSD has been pushing up a trendline, though with downward forces intercepting at intervals, the market remains on the rise. However, on the 19th of November, the market’s rise broke down, and this led to a serious dip in price. AUDUSD plummeted below the uptrend line and broke several key levels to get to the 0.69980 support level. The market then restarted its climb from there.

A three-white-soldier candlestick pattern was therefore employed to restart the market’s ascension. The price got to 0.71780 and entered into consolidation with 0.70960 as the support level. Thereafter, the price breaks upward and encounters another resistance at 0.72660. Another ranging phase commenced, but AUDUSD is weaker at this level and dropped downward. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a drop in market strength as its line also drops below the 50 mark.

AUDUSD Encounters a Setback to Its Upward RecoveryAUDUSD Short Term Trend: Bearish

In dropping below the 0.72660 resistance level, the market has dropped below the MA period 100 on the 4-hours chart. Moreso, the RSI indicator in the same time frame is very close to the oversold bolder. This shows the extent to which the upward impetus of the market has dropped, but it also signifies that we might be expecting an upturn again in price. If this happens, the market will likely recover and charge through the 0.72660 resistance to get to 0.73250.

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AUDUSD Is Recovering off the 0.69980 Support Level

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – December 30

AUDUSD is recovering off a major support level at 0.69980. The price is now recovering from bearish bouts that were sustained as the market plummeted from a high-level resistance at 0.75480. Rejection at that level ensures a 7.30% price drop to the 0.69980 significant level on the 3rd of December. Bears have now exhausted their strength, giving bulls a free run to influence the market.


AUDUSD Major Levels

Resistance Levels: 0.72660, 0.73250, 0.75480
Support Levels: 0.69980, 0.70960, 0.71780

AUDUSD Is Recovering off the 0.69980 Support LevelAUDUSD Long Term Trend: Bullish

Market buyers are seen to clean up after the bears. The price was being forced by the bulls to maintain an uptrend. Bears, however, kept crashing the market against the uptrend line till it finally breaks past it and passed more major levels. The 0.69980 price level, however, remains strong enough to halt the price fall. AUDUSD is now recovering off this price level.

The market’s move higher is rather gradual. This is because bearish forces are still at work in the market. The price rose first above 0.70960, where it accumulated for a short while. Thereafter, AUDUSD pushes from that level to above 0.71780, where the market is now stalling before it continues its advance. A long line of Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) dots can be seen below the daily candle to confirm market bullishness.

AUDUSD Is Recovering off the 0.69980 Support LevelAUDUSD Short Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, the price is stalling below the 0.72660 price level. The Parabolic SAR, just like on the daily chart, signifies bullishness with dots below the 4-hour candles. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought, but there could be a pullback to enable the price to break beyond the current level. Buyers will be looking to break all resistance to reinstate the market back to the uptrend line.

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AUD/USD Reaches Bearish Exhaustion, May Reverse Course at 0.6846

Updated:

AUD/USD Significant Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7400, 0.7600, and 0.7800
Support Levels: 0.7100, 0.6900 and 0.6700

AUD/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
AUD/USD is in a downtrend and it may reverse course at 0.6846 . The downtrend was created after the formation of a bearish double top. The pair was rejected at level 0.7900 overhead resistance. The currency price broke below the moving averages to reach the low of 0.7105. The pair is likely to further decline as it approaches the oversold region of the market. Meanwhile, on November 29 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that AUD/USD will fall but reverse at level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or level 0.6830.

AUD/USD Reaches Bearish Exhaustion, May Reverse Course at 0.6846
AUD/USD – Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart Indicators Reading:
AUD/USD is at level 41 of the Relative Strength Index for period 14. The currency pair is in the downtrend zone and capable of falling on the downside. The currency pair has a bearish crossover. That is, the 21-day SMA crosses below the 50-day SMA indicating a sell order. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping southward indicating the downtrend.

AUD/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the Daily chart, the currency price is in a downward move. The bears broke below the previous low of level 0.7071. The currency price pulled back and retested the previous low indicating a further downward movement of prices. Meanwhile, on December 3 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that AUD/USD will fall but reverse at level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or level 0.6846.

AUD/USD Reaches Bearish Exhaustion, May Reverse Course at 0.6846
AUD/USD – Daily Chart

Daily-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The pair is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. The market is in a bearish momentum. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping downward indicating the downtrend.

General Outlook for AUD/USD
AUD/USD has been in a downtrend since May and it may reverse course at 0.6846. On December 3, the currency pairs fell to the oversold region of the market. The downtrend has reached bearish exhaustion. The Fibonacci tool has indicated a possible trend reversal at level 0.6846.

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AUDUSD Reverses Course After Hitting a Near Two-Week High at 0.7186

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – December 9

The AUD/USD pair continued its steady intraday decline throughout the session, dropping to a new daily low at the time of analysis around the 0.7140-35 level. The advent of fresh US dollar demand was a crucial element that placed pressure on the AUDUSD pair as markets looked beyond better Chinese inflation numbers.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7300, 0.7250, 0.7200
Support Levels: 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Bearish
During the session, the AUDUSD broke through a minor support level of 0.7150. A breakdown is a sell signal, with a target of 0.7100 and possibly as far as solid support at 0.7050 for near-term profit-taking. In all likelihood, the AUDUSD exchange rate might continue to fall over the next trading session.

The 0.7050 level could be a potential target for bears. While the retracement from the 0.7186 level is still happening, there isn’t enough data to confirm a positive trend reversal at this time. That is, it could just represent a reversal of the long-term consolidation tendency. On the plus side, a bullish comeback above the 0.7160 mark will restore buyer confidence.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The momentum indicators on the 4-hour time frame, on the other hand, are currently pointing to a continued sell-off in the near term. The RSI is reverting to its midlevel of 50, while the 4-hour moving averages 5 and 13 are dropping and rising above price while remaining in the negative zone.

However, if the market closes over the small resistance at 0.7150 in the next sessions, it might stoke buying interest and confirm further rises towards the 0.7200 hurdles, which are might start a fresh rally. If there is a strong rebound, the 0.7300 barriers, which were identified as resistance, could be the next target.

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AUDUSD Falls Below 0.7100 After Positive US Jobs Statistics

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – December 2

In recent activity, the AUDUSD fell below the 0.7100 barriers and is currently trading 0.16 percent down on the day, pressured down by positive US data. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s optimistic view of the economy and statement that the bank should press on with policy tightening in face of pandemic threats are backed up by this week’s broadly good US data.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7150
Support Levels: 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6950
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Bearish
After falling below the 0.7555 high, the AUDUSD declines continue running lower under the 5 and daily moving average. The price is below the 0.7100 level, keeping the bears intact in the game. Major bulls, on the other hand, are unlikely to be interested unless they try to make a rebound from the yearly low, which is currently at 0.7062.

Continuous trading below the horizontal support turned resistance at 0.7100 could lead to a further negative scenario, indicating that a bounce is yet far. Traders should keep an eye on the 0.7050 low level. A return above the 0.7150 level, on the other hand, would extend the subsequent rebound from 0.7062 to 0.7250 in case of such a positive move.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
For the time being, the intraday bias for the AUDUSD remains negative. As long as the 0.7050 support level remains firm, further advances are still being considered. If the 0.7150 level is breached, the 0.7350 high regions may be the first target.

A robust breach, on the other hand, might kick-start a stronger rebound from the 0.7100 level. Meanwhile a break lower of the 0.7150 support level, on the other hand, might reverse any upside move made and prolong the recovery optimism that began at the 0.7062 level.

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AUDUSD Continues on the Decline and Stays Below 0.7200

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – November 25

AUDUSD – The Australian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar, down 0.17 percent to 0.7179 intraday low at the time of writing. Despite thin liquidity conditions, European indices are up, owing to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. The intraday profit-taking plunge in the US dollar was tempered by aggressive Fed predictions, which acted as a headwind for the major.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7300, 0.7250, 0.7200
Support Levels: 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.0.6950
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD trend has turned bearish, which is bolstered by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart have driven into negative territory. Follow-through selling below moving averages 5 and 13, around 0.7170, will strengthen the bearish bias and expose the AUDUSD pair to additional weakness.

Any effort at a comeback, on the other hand, risks fizzling out at the moving average 5 resistance breakpoint at 0.7220. This, in turn, should operate as a significant barrier, which, if forcefully overcome, might drive some short-covering and push the AUDUSD pair back towards the round figure of 0.7300.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The momentum indicators on the 4-hour time frame, on the other hand, are currently pointing to a continued sell-off in the near term. The RSI is continually below the oversold level of 40, and the 4-hour moving averages 5 and 13 are falling and above price while remaining negative.

However, a closing price above the near-term high of 0.7300 in consecutive sessions might pique buyer interest and affirm further increases towards the 0.7555 hurdles, which have been high since End of Oct. 2021. On the contrary, the 0.7105 support, which was identified as support in August 2021, could be the next target.

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AUDUSD Recovers After Hitting Six-Week Lows at Sub 0.7300

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – November 18

During the American session, the AUDUSD pair extended its rebound from six-week lows, climbing to the 0.7293 intraday high, but there was no follow-through. The divergence in monetary policy stance between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the (US) Federal Reserve has fueled the recent trend seen since the beginning of this month.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7400, 0.7350, 0.7300
Support Levels: 0.7250, 0.7150, 0.7050
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The bulls are returning and guiding the pair towards the moving averages of 5 and 13, now at 0.7285, towards the intraday high of 0.7293 on Nov. 18, with the 0.7300 mark serving as an interim halt. Strong downside support is also provided by an ascending trend line that dates back to Aug. 20 and is now at 0.7250 levels.

The comeback from the medium-term low of 0.7250 is perceived as reversing the entire long-term negative trend from the high of 0.8000. On the north side, a breach of the 0.7300 resistance level would be the first sign that the rebound is ongoing. Otherwise, even if there is a bounce, the trend may continue to be bearish.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The intraday bias in the AUDUSD remains neutral at this time. More gain is supported as long as the support level of 0.7250 remains constant. On the upside, a break of the 0.7300 level might relaunch the rally from the 0.7170 level, with the 0.7550 level as the next short-term target.

Nonetheless, a decisive break of the 0.7250 level might confirm short-term topping and shift bias to the negative, allowing for a sharper drop. In the short-to-medium-term period, a bullish tilt may extend beyond the short-term moving averages of 5 and 13 as well as the 0.7300 borders.

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AUDUSD Rises Past 0.7550 Despite Rising US T-Bond Yields

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – October 28

The AUDUSD trades higher at 0.7554 at the time of writing, up 0.50 percent during the American session. In the near term, the pair could drop lower but it remains a buy on dips. The US Dollar Index, which gauges the performance of the greenback, falls 0.6 percent to 93.30, despite rising US T-bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark note climbing three basis points to 1.561 percent.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7800, 0.7700, 0.7600
Support Levels: 0.7450, 0.7350, 0.7220
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
On the daily AUDUSD chart, we can see that the moving averages of 5 and 13 are beneath the price, which provides support. Bulls are also keeping an eye on the latest 0.7555-level high for a possible upward breakout. In terms of technical analysis, a simple split beyond favors bulls continuing north.

Relative Strength Index circumstances, on the other hand, may pose a challenge to the bulls after that due to overbought conditions. On the downside, the pair’s losses below 0.7478 may recall sellers targeting 0.7450 support convergence as of mid-July, which included moving averages 5 and 13 with horizontal support.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bullish
On the 4-hour chart of the AUDUSD, the upside rally continues, and the intraday bias is initially bullish. A breach of the 0.7478 support level could imply short-term topping, given the situation of bearish divergence in the short term RSI and price.

To resolve the full 0.7170 level increase pattern, the intraday bias for the 0.7450 support level will be returned to the downside in this scenario. However, if the resistance level of 0.7550 is sustained, the growth could accelerate to 0.7600.

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