AUDUSD Reverses Multi-Month Highs of 0.7546 Amid Risk-Off Market

21 October 2021 | Updated: 21 October 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – October 21

The AUDUSD declined for the first time this week, losing 0.65 percent and trading at 0.7465 at the time of writing. The pair continued to rise to the highest level since early July, and the 0.7546 area saw an intraday turnaround. A goodish uptick in demand for the US dollar fueled the corrective pullback, which was aided by the risk-off impulse and higher US Treasury bond yields.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7600, 0.7550
Support Levels: 0.7450, 0.7350, 0.7220
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
On the daily chart, technical indicators are practically flashing reversal circumstances as the RSI turns south. Meanwhile, the recovery from the medium-term low of 0.7169 is being seen as reversing the entire long-term downtrend from the high of 0.8007.

There is no proof that it has been completed. Bulls should be able to retake the 0.7500 levels with a sustained move above them. Sustained trading below the moving averages 5 (now at level 0.7458) may boost the chances of it being completed and move focus back to the low level of 0.7169.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The AUDUSD has now dropped to as low as 0.7458, and the intraday bias has shifted to neutral. The recent drop is regarded as a complete growth correction from levels of 0.7169 to 0.7546. As a result, the AUDUSD is likely to test the lower levels of horizontal support, which are now below 0.7450.

In the case of a rebound, though, the trend may continue to be optimistic. The recent rise of the dollar, in general, supports the pair’s “pullback” scenario. Despite reversals, the risk on the 4-hour chart remains weighted upward in the short term. A break over 0.7500, the nearest resistance level, should signal a further move north.

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AUDUSD Continues To Rise Amid a Negative Market Outlook

30 September 2021 | Updated: 30 September 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – September 30

During the American session, the AUDUSD gained traction and surged to 0.7257, a new daily high supported by a broad-based US dollar decline. The DXY is down 0.20 percent, marking the first time it has dropped following four days of gains. Despite stable US bond yields and uneven US equity markets, the US dollars dropped.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7557, 0.7450, 0.7350
Support Levels: 0.7150, 0.7050, 0.6900
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The level at 0.7300 is a challenging task for the AUDUSD bulls to tackle because it is a combination of the daily pivot point and a round number. On a break above the latter on September 23, bulls may re-attempt for a 0.7478 medium-term high level.

On the other hand, the daily low of 0.7169 may serve as an initial support level, from which the low of 0.7150 might be tested. However, price moves on the daily chart remained optimistic, indicating the commencement of some dip-buying.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The intraday bias for the AUDUSD is positive, while the trend remains neutral. A corrective trend from level 0.7478 is expected to have another severe decline before the trend corrects. Overall the AUDUSD remains at the mid correction zone. We could also witness a stretch lower from the 0.7300/0.7350 short-term high level.

The initial target, on the other hand, is the 0.7150 support level beneath the 0.7200 marks. However, if the 0.7300 level is breached repeatedly, the whole increase from the 0.7169 level may be restored. A dramatic turnaround for bearish traders might be viewed as a new catalyst, paving the way for a drop to frightening weekly lows near the 0.7170 mark.

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Dollar Drifts, Aussie Resilient Despite China’s Property Woes

27 September 2021 | Updated: 27 September 2021

After both the Aussie and the Kiwi in the dollar pairings plunged 0.80 percent on Friday as risk-proxy indicators, rising commodity prices, fading Evergrande worries, and state reopening plans have brought the AUD/USD 0.35 percent higher to 0.7285 today.

At the end of the prior week, the currency markets in New York dragged to a conclusion, with a jump in US rates erasing the US dollar’s early losses and sending the majors to a nearly flat close. In directionless Asian trading, the dollar index increased 0.21 percent to 92.28, before dropping slightly to 92.24. The index is currently trading in a range of 92.00 to 92.50.

As a result, both Antipodeans are exposed to more selling pressure if news from China continues to deteriorate. As a result, both are likely to be sell-on rallies for the first few days of this week, especially if China’s PMI data on Thursday is quite negative.

Given global concerns over China’s property industry and the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates yet again, the Australian dollar did well to retain its ground last week. In the coming week, the A$ will continue to be focused on China, while Australia’s domestic data schedule will include retail sales and housing.

Aussie Regains Ground, Risk-On Mood Weakens USD

Given that the Aussie is frequently used as a proxy for concerns about China’s economy, the AUD/USD fell to 0.7220, its lowest level since August 24. Even when news broke that Evergrande had missed bond interest payments, 0.7200 remained firm. There was a minimal official statement from Chinese officials, but it quickly became clear that, while investors – notably international investors – would lose money, China’s economy and world markets would not be jeopardized. The stock market has recovered.

With data from US futures markets showing big net short positions as of September 21, around the time concern over China real estate was at its peak, investors may have already priced lots of bad news into the Aussie.

The focus subsequently shifted to the FOMC, the policy-making body of the Federal Reserve. “A slowdown in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” the committee stated, assuming progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability continued. This was pretty much what we expected — no specific timeframe for tapering bond purchases, but “soon.”

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AUDUSD selling gathers traction following poor AUD Job data

16 September 2021 | Updated: 16 September 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 16

AUDUSD pair continued its gradual intraday decline during the early European session, refreshing daily lows around 0.7308. Domestic data revealed that the number of employed persons declined more than expected in August, weighing on the Australian dollar. Governor Lowe went out of his way to argue against market pricing for a higher cash rate in late 2022 and 2023, indicating that the RBA was not in the mood to strengthen the AUD.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7557, 0.7450, 0.7350
Support Levels: 0.7289, 0.7150, 0.7050
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
At the start of the European session, the AUDUSD plunged towards the support level of 0.7300. A breakdown is a sell signal, with a target of sub-0.7300 and possibly as far as solid support at 0.7220 for short-term profit-taking. In all likelihood, the AUDUSD exchange rate will continue to fall over the next trading session.

The 0.7200 level could be a potential target for bears. While the retracement from the 0.8000 level is still happening, there isn’t enough data to confirm a positive trend reversal at this time. That is, it could just represent a reversal of the long-term consolidation tendency. On the plus side, a bullish comeback above the 0.7478 marks will restore buyer confidence.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The momentum indicators on the 4-hour time frame, on the other hand, are currently pointing to a continued sell-off in the near term. The RSI is reverting to its oversold level of 30, while the 4-hour moving averages 5 and 13 are dropping and rising above price while remaining in the negative zone.

However, if the market closes over the small resistance at 0.7350 in the next sessions, it might stoke buying interest and confirm further rises towards the 0.7600 hurdles, which are the June 2021 highs. If there is a strong rebound, the 0.8000 barriers, which were identified as resistance in February 2021, could be the next target.

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AUDUSD Surges Past Mid 0.7300 Zone As Bearish Impetus Fades

9 September 2021 | Updated: 9 September 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 9

The AUDUSD surges by 30 pips, or 0.30 percent, against the US dollar on Thursday. If all other factors remain constant, the exchange rate may continue to rise throughout the next trading session. The 0.7400 level could be a potential objective for positive traders.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7557, 0.7450
Support Levels: 0.7350, 0.7289, 0.7189
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
To maintain the bullish pattern, AUDUSD bulls require a persistent breach above the 0.7400 barriers, as seen on the daily charts. Growth may also be hampered by the 0.7450 zones. Meanwhile, a pullback below the moving average 13 around 0.7350 might temporarily dampen bullish optimism, sending AUDUSD sellers below the weekly low of 0.7345.

In a broader sense, continued trading above horizontal resistance at 0.7389 indicates a medium-term bullish bias. To eventually signify the end of a medium-term downtrend from 0.8000, the AUDUSD may need to reverse the retracement from 0.8000 high to 0.7105 low at 0.7478. Instead, a break of the 0.7478 level would maintain the long-term bullish trend.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The continuation of the uptrend in the AUDUSD is indicated by the rebound from the 0.7350 support level. The intraday bias is rising once more. A climb from 0.7105 to 0.7476 from 0.7350 to 0.7500 next should target the projection of 0.7105 to 0.7476 from 0.7350 to 0.7550. A break of the 0.7350 support, on the other hand, is required to confirm a short-term top.

The trend may remain bullish even if there is a setback. The dollar’s weakness as a whole supports the pair’s “bullish” outlook. Despite RSI midline readings, the risk on the 4-hour chart remains tilted upward in the short term. A break over 0.7426, the nearest resistance level, should signal a further move north.

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AUDUSD Rallies to the Highest Level in Three Weeks Past 0.7400

2 September 2021 | Updated: 2 September 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – September 2

For the third day in a row, the Australian dollar rose to new multi-week highs. The AUDUSD exchange rate continued to rise, reaching 0.7409, its highest level since August 5. Presently it’s hovering past 0.7400. The dollar index, or DXY, is down 0.25 percent, trading at 92.25, its lowest level in a month.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7557, 0.7450
Support Levels: 0.7350, 0.7289, 0.7189
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The advance over a crucial horizontal support breakpoint turned resistance, around the 0.7340 zones past the daily moving average 5, which was considered as a key trigger for bullish traders, according to the technical picture. As a result, the AUDUSD pair was able to build on its recent robust comeback from the 0.7100 level.

Nevertheless, technical indicators on daily charts are already indicating that the market is going towards the overbought region. As a result, any further gains above the 0.7400 round-figure barriers are likely to face heavy opposition and be limited near the 0.7426 support zone. A congestion zone’s top boundary is marked by the mentioned region.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
On the other hand, oscillators on the 4-hour chart reached the overbought zone and continue to gather positive traction, implying that further rises are possible. A prolonged surge towards the 0.7426 range will reaffirm the outlook and cause a new round of short-buying, bringing the AUDUSD pair closer to the crucial 0.7500 psychological level.

On the other hand, any major pullback currently appears to find solid support near 0.7350 around the 4 hour MA 13. Then there’s the 0.7300 round level, which, if violated strongly, might tip the scales in favor of bearish traders. The AUDUSD pair’s corrective decline into the 0.7289 horizontal zones could accelerate if bulls fail to hold.

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AUDUSD Susceptible to Further Lows Amid COVID & China Uncertainties

19 August 2021 | Updated: 19 August 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 19

The AUDUSD fell below the 0.7200 regions and maintains a highly offered bias trading barely above mid-0.7100s, its lowest level since early November. The pair’s weakness continues as the US dollar strengthened and Australia’s coronavirus issues prompted another round of GDP projection downgrades.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7389, 0.7289, 0.7189
Support Levels: 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Bearish
Earlier in the week, the AUDUSD broke through the trend line connecting the Nov 2020 lows and Jul 2021 lows, indicating a downward trend. A negative break of the ascending trend line signals a resumption of the sell-off from the Feb 2021 high of 0.8000. Furthermore, MA 5 crossing MA 13 increases RSI bearish area below 30.

A drop below 30 or a bearish 14-day RSI provides further traction for the lower break. The sustained trading above 0.7150 would bolster optimistic sentiment and signal that the rally is over. The emphasis will shift then back towards the recovery of 0.7300 area. Otherwise, the AUDUSD descent may accelerate to 0.7000 lower low.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD has now dropped to as low as 0.7144, and the intraday bias is still to the downside. The recent drop is thought to be a complete growth correction from former lows to 0.8000. As a result, the AUDUSD is anticipated to test the lower levels of horizontal support, which are now around the 0.7000 level.

A greater decline may be noted beneath the 0.7150 levels, which is a further retracement. On the upside, a violation of the 0.7220 support turned resistance level is necessary to signal the end of the decline. Anything else, even if recovery occurs, the near-term sentiment could remain gloomy.

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AUD Drops Sharply As Yen Surges, on the Back of Dismal Chinese Data

16 August 2021 | Updated: 16 August 2021

With Australia’s lockdowns being prolonged, the AUD remains weak. As the number of cases continues to climb, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Darwin remain under rigorous limitations. Australia is vulnerable to the highly contagious Delta form since just 26% of people over the age of 16 have been properly vaccinated. Today was the bloodiest day of the COVID-19 outbreak in Sydney, Australia’s largest city. To restrict people’s movement, troops and police built up barriers. Australia’s limitations are among the most stringent in the world, with extremely harsh penalties for breaking the lockdown regulations.

The AUD is also being impacted by the slowing Chinese economy, according to data. Annualized retail sales in July in China were 8.5 percent, versus 11.5 percent projected, and annualized industrial production was 6.4 percent, versus 7.8 percent expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to become more dovish (minutes from its last meeting will be released on Tuesday). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), on the other hand, remains one of the world’s most hawkish central banks and is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2014 on Wednesday.

The yen has risen sharply as a result of several risk-off factors, all of which are tied to the pandemic. As the coronavirus resurfaced, a slew of weaker-than-expected data from China signaled that the recovery is losing steam. Infections have increased in Japan, and Australia has imposed more restrictions. Commodity currencies are falling in general, with the Australian dollar being the hardest hit. The major European currencies are currently mixed but remain robust against the US dollar for the time being.

AUD Depreciates Sharply Against the Yen

A couple of risk-off factors have caused the AUDJPY also to fall strongly today. Heavier limits on the Delta variant’s surge are causing concern in Australia. Infections have reached new highs in New South Wales, while Melbourne has reverted to a night curfew. The Australian Capital Territory’s lockdown has been extended for another two weeks. The Northern Territory likewise goes under a three-day lockdown.

The AUD/USD pair got off to a shaky start in the new week, dropping to a daily low of 0.7331 before consolidating. As of this writing, the pair was trading at 0.7340, down 0.4 percent on the day. The US Dollar Index, on the other hand, which fell dramatically on Friday amid falling US Treasury note yields, is trading in a relatively tight range above 92.50 on Monday, allowing AUD valuation to dictate AUD/USD swings.

Retail sales in China increased by 8.5 percent year over year in July, according to figures released earlier in the day. By a large margin, this data fell short of the market consensus of an 11.5 percent increase. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased by 6.4 percent in the same period, compared to experts’ expectations of 7.8%. The China-proxy AUD was hit hard by these poor numbers at the start of the week.

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AUDUSD Stays Beneath Sub 0.7400 As the Market Anticipates US Data

12 August 2021 | Updated: 12 August 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 12

After a minor recovery within its relatively close territory in the prior day, the AUDUSD is currently trading around lows near the sub 0.7400 level. On Thursday, the pair falls as it fails to maintain the previous session’s upward momentum. Traders are currently waiting on the US Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) to provide new trading momentum.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7557, 0.7476, 0.7389
Support Levels: 0.7289, 0.7220, 0.7150
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
For the third week in a row, the AUDUSD has been trading steadily inside the 0.7289–0.7426 band, at the base of a near-term decline, with mild upswings above the moving averages (MA 5 and 13). The price is supported at the 0.7300 lows on the daily chart, and it is trading in a sideways range. The 0.7426 level establishes a difficult-ranging zone.

After overcoming this, the AUDUSD may be limited in its advance to the high level of 0.7450 before attempting the July 6 high of 0.7600 and the neighboring horizontal barrier of 0.7616. The bullish bounce in the pair still needs more data to be confirmed. That is, it could simply be a correction inside the long-term higher trend.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD is currently trading in a range after holding a minor support level of 0.7289. To begin with, intraday bias is unchanged. Breaking past the 0.7389 resistance level, the recovery from the 0.7289 level could proceed on the upside. This would also mark the end of the 0.7600 level correction.

A further surge in this circumstance might lead to a retest of the 0.7600 heights. A firm violation of the 0.7300 level, on the other hand, might suggest a resumption of the correction from the 0.7600 level. Beneath 0.7300, the intraday tendency will shift to the downside, with short-term support at 0.7250.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

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AUDUSD Recovers Bullish Traction, As Potential Upside Stays Confined

5 August 2021 | Updated: 5 August 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 5

The Australian dollar is gradually rebounding, holding past the 0.7400 level, aided by a slight drop in the US dollar overall. During the early American session, the AUDUSD pair saw considerable buying and surge past the 0.7400 round-figure marks on Thursday. Despite the COVID-19 difficulties, a minor increase in USD demand limited any major gains on the Aussie.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7557, 0.7450
Support Levels: 0.7372, 0.7289, 0.7220
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The bullish trend in the AUDUSD has to be confirmed by a persistent break above the 0.7414 to 0.7450 level, as seen on the daily charts. Growth may be further hampered by the 0.7557 zones. Meanwhile, a break below the 5 and 13 moving averages around 0.7372 might temporarily dampen bullish momentum, sending AUDUSD sellers to a weekly low of around 0.7329.

In a broader sense, continued trading above horizontal resistance at 0.7414 indicates a medium-term positive bias. To eventually signify the end of a long-term slump from 0.8000. AUDUSD may need to reverse the retracement from 0.8000 high to 0.7289 low at 0.7426. Instead, a break of the 0.7289 level would maintain the long-term negative trend.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The AUDUSD continues to consolidate at the downward channel, reaching a new high of 0.7426. Intraday bias has returned to the crucial 0.7400 area. A significant bullish outcome could result from a decisive breakout. The upside prediction from 0.7289 to 0.7414 levels from 0.7426 to 0.7557 levels is the next aim.

A break of the 0.7372 support level, on the other hand, would signal a short-term peak. In the event of a retreat, though, the trend may continue optimistic. The uptrend line, which is currently approaching the 0.7300 level, may provide technical support to the AUDUSD bulls. Any move below the level, on the other hand, might stoke the bears.

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