AUD Drops Sharply As Yen Surges, on the Back of Dismal Chinese Data

16 August 2021 | Updated: 16 August 2021

With Australia’s lockdowns being prolonged, the AUD remains weak. As the number of cases continues to climb, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Darwin remain under rigorous limitations. Australia is vulnerable to the highly contagious Delta form since just 26% of people over the age of 16 have been properly vaccinated. Today was the bloodiest day of the COVID-19 outbreak in Sydney, Australia’s largest city. To restrict people’s movement, troops and police built up barriers. Australia’s limitations are among the most stringent in the world, with extremely harsh penalties for breaking the lockdown regulations.

The AUD is also being impacted by the slowing Chinese economy, according to data. Annualized retail sales in July in China were 8.5 percent, versus 11.5 percent projected, and annualized industrial production was 6.4 percent, versus 7.8 percent expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to become more dovish (minutes from its last meeting will be released on Tuesday). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), on the other hand, remains one of the world’s most hawkish central banks and is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2014 on Wednesday.

The yen has risen sharply as a result of several risk-off factors, all of which are tied to the pandemic. As the coronavirus resurfaced, a slew of weaker-than-expected data from China signaled that the recovery is losing steam. Infections have increased in Japan, and Australia has imposed more restrictions. Commodity currencies are falling in general, with the Australian dollar being the hardest hit. The major European currencies are currently mixed but remain robust against the US dollar for the time being.

AUD Depreciates Sharply Against the Yen

A couple of risk-off factors have caused the AUDJPY also to fall strongly today. Heavier limits on the Delta variant’s surge are causing concern in Australia. Infections have reached new highs in New South Wales, while Melbourne has reverted to a night curfew. The Australian Capital Territory’s lockdown has been extended for another two weeks. The Northern Territory likewise goes under a three-day lockdown.

The AUD/USD pair got off to a shaky start in the new week, dropping to a daily low of 0.7331 before consolidating. As of this writing, the pair was trading at 0.7340, down 0.4 percent on the day. The US Dollar Index, on the other hand, which fell dramatically on Friday amid falling US Treasury note yields, is trading in a relatively tight range above 92.50 on Monday, allowing AUD valuation to dictate AUD/USD swings.

Retail sales in China increased by 8.5 percent year over year in July, according to figures released earlier in the day. By a large margin, this data fell short of the market consensus of an 11.5 percent increase. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased by 6.4 percent in the same period, compared to experts’ expectations of 7.8%. The China-proxy AUD was hit hard by these poor numbers at the start of the week.

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AUDUSD Stays Beneath Sub 0.7400 As the Market Anticipates US Data

12 August 2021 | Updated: 12 August 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 12

After a minor recovery within its relatively close territory in the prior day, the AUDUSD is currently trading around lows near the sub 0.7400 level. On Thursday, the pair falls as it fails to maintain the previous session’s upward momentum. Traders are currently waiting on the US Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) to provide new trading momentum.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7557, 0.7476, 0.7389
Support Levels: 0.7289, 0.7220, 0.7150
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
For the third week in a row, the AUDUSD has been trading steadily inside the 0.7289–0.7426 band, at the base of a near-term decline, with mild upswings above the moving averages (MA 5 and 13). The price is supported at the 0.7300 lows on the daily chart, and it is trading in a sideways range. The 0.7426 level establishes a difficult-ranging zone.

After overcoming this, the AUDUSD may be limited in its advance to the high level of 0.7450 before attempting the July 6 high of 0.7600 and the neighboring horizontal barrier of 0.7616. The bullish bounce in the pair still needs more data to be confirmed. That is, it could simply be a correction inside the long-term higher trend.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD is currently trading in a range after holding a minor support level of 0.7289. To begin with, intraday bias is unchanged. Breaking past the 0.7389 resistance level, the recovery from the 0.7289 level could proceed on the upside. This would also mark the end of the 0.7600 level correction.

A further surge in this circumstance might lead to a retest of the 0.7600 heights. A firm violation of the 0.7300 level, on the other hand, might suggest a resumption of the correction from the 0.7600 level. Beneath 0.7300, the intraday tendency will shift to the downside, with short-term support at 0.7250.

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AUDUSD Recovers Bullish Traction, As Potential Upside Stays Confined

5 August 2021 | Updated: 5 August 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – August 5

The Australian dollar is gradually rebounding, holding past the 0.7400 level, aided by a slight drop in the US dollar overall. During the early American session, the AUDUSD pair saw considerable buying and surge past the 0.7400 round-figure marks on Thursday. Despite the COVID-19 difficulties, a minor increase in USD demand limited any major gains on the Aussie.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7557, 0.7450
Support Levels: 0.7372, 0.7289, 0.7220
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The bullish trend in the AUDUSD has to be confirmed by a persistent break above the 0.7414 to 0.7450 level, as seen on the daily charts. Growth may be further hampered by the 0.7557 zones. Meanwhile, a break below the 5 and 13 moving averages around 0.7372 might temporarily dampen bullish momentum, sending AUDUSD sellers to a weekly low of around 0.7329.

In a broader sense, continued trading above horizontal resistance at 0.7414 indicates a medium-term positive bias. To eventually signify the end of a long-term slump from 0.8000. AUDUSD may need to reverse the retracement from 0.8000 high to 0.7289 low at 0.7426. Instead, a break of the 0.7289 level would maintain the long-term negative trend.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The AUDUSD continues to consolidate at the downward channel, reaching a new high of 0.7426. Intraday bias has returned to the crucial 0.7400 area. A significant bullish outcome could result from a decisive breakout. The upside prediction from 0.7289 to 0.7414 levels from 0.7426 to 0.7557 levels is the next aim.

A break of the 0.7372 support level, on the other hand, would signal a short-term peak. In the event of a retreat, though, the trend may continue optimistic. The uptrend line, which is currently approaching the 0.7300 level, may provide technical support to the AUDUSD bulls. Any move below the level, on the other hand, might stoke the bears.

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Swiss Franc Rebounds As AUD and USD Selloff Continues

1 August 2021 | Updated: 1 August 2021

Despite the lack of confirmation, additional Dollar weakness lies ahead, as the near-term trend is reversing. However, in the event of more Dollar depreciation, the Australian dollar would be a currency to avoid. Given its relative strength against the Euro and Sterling, the Swiss Franc is more likely to be a better option than not.

On the other hand, the Swiss franc appears to be strengthening ahead of the traditionally volatile August. EUR/CHF continued its decline from 1.1149 to 1.0740. The oversold state of the daily RSI is not slowing it down, but the daily MACD is suggesting a downside acceleration.

The current focus is on support for the 1.0737 clusters (61.8% retracement from 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0751). Strong trading below that level this week will pave the way for a retest of the 1.0505 low. And, in any case, the short-term outlook will remain bearish as long as support at 1.0802 holds resistance.

Last week’s selloff in the dollar drew a lot of attention, but it eased down at the conclusion. Traders are hedging their bets, for the time being, expecting the release of the July statistics. Indeed, the Australian Dollar was the weakest performer, owing partially to risk aversion in China and Hong Kong and partly to RBA QE predictions. The second-worst currency was the New Zealand Dollar, which was followed by the US dollar.

AUD’s Underlying Vulnerability

Australia is to publish Monday’s AIG Manufacturing Index for July and Commonwealth Bank’s Manufacturing PMI for the same month. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, and investors are looking forward to another dovish stance from Lowe & Co.

The Australian currency was the worst, with AUD/USD ending the week at 0.7330, as the country’s ongoing virus problem kept the Aussie off investors’ attention. The CAD sank against the greenback as well, but only after hitting new highs against its American counterpart.

The AUD/USD pair is down for the fifth week in a row and modestly lower weekly. The pair fell on Friday, pulled down by the gloomy tone of global indices. Since the country adopted local restrictive policies that hampered economic expansion, the Australian dollar has been unable to attract purchasers. Gold prices are falling, putting more pressure on the pair at the end of the week.

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AUDUSD Daily Gains Stay Beneath 0.7400 After FOMC

29 July 2021 | Updated: 29 July 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 29

AUDUSD drew some dip-buying on Thursday and aims to build on the prior day’s rally from the 0.7316 zones. Amid the dominant US dollar selling tendency after the FOMC, the pair was last spotted slightly beneath the 0.7400 marks, towards the upper end of its daily trading range.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7775, 0.7600, 0.7450
Support Levels: 0.7289, 0.7200, 0.7100
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
In the meantime, an upside breakout of the horizontal resistance level of 0.7414 may need to hit the main resistance level of 0.7600 before the bulls can take control. While doing so, the 0.7450 level, which is an upside range zone, may attract investor interest before the previous month’s peak, reaching 0.7775.

Whilst the bears are projected to lose control near the 0.7289 marks, they will target the 0.7200 round level for further control before reinforcing the November 2020 lows after finding channel support near the 0.7100 level. Though from a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD pair has struggled to break past the 0.7400 round figure thus far.

AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD intraday bias is unchanged, with the attention shifting from the 0.7565 weekly support level to the 0.7414 resistance level. As a result, a continuing breach could imply that the 0.7800 pullback was successful. To retest this level, the intraday bias will be shifted back to the upside.

Breaking the AUDUSD level of 0.7414 will signal a resumption of growth from the 0.7289 level. The intraday trend is resuming. The long-term level of 0.7600 is the next aim. A drop below the minor support level of 0.7372, on the other hand, could change the bullish bias and trigger sideways trading.

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AUDUSD Gains Traction for the 2nd Day in a Row As the Dollar Weakens

22 July 2021 | Updated: 22 July 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 22

During the early European session, the AUDUSD pair soared to fresh weekly highs, hovering around the 0.7387 level. The pair recovered positive traction for the second consecutive session, and it is now attempting to build on the previous day’s impressive recovery from sub-0.7300 levels. The risk-on sentiment weakens the dollar and boosted the perceived riskier Australian dollar.

Key Level
Resistance Levels: 0.7600, 0.7500, 0.7414
Support Levels: 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7100
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
From a technical standpoint, the recovery from the low level of 0.7289 propelled the pair towards the psychological level of 0.7400 short of 13 pips. The rebound constituted the construction of an upside continuation chart pattern, given the recent steep pullback from the important 0.7598 levels or July high.

On the other hand, weakness below the weekly swing lows, around the 0.7289 zones, could confirm the retracement setup and drag the pair back to the 0.7220 levels. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for a further depreciating move in the near term, en route to the 0.7000 round-figure marks and support zone.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
On the 4-hour time frame, the AUDUSD trend is unchanged, and the intraday bias initially remains at the downside channel. The fall from the 0.7598 level might continue, with a test of the 0.7289 temporary low near the rising trendline support. However, as long as the 0.7300 confluence level holds, the trend could continue to be optimistic.

On the upside, a break above the minor resistance level of 0.7414 might shift the bias to the upside, allowing for a retest of the 0.7598 level. The break may signal the start of a larger rally from 0.7000. In the meanwhile, a definitive violation of the 0.7300 zones might trigger a steeper decline.

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AUDUSD Declines Under Mid-0.7400, USD Gains on Risk-Off Sentiment

15 July 2021 | Updated: 15 July 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 15

During the early North American session, the AUDUSD pair kept its offered tone, plunging underneath the mid-0.7400 level. The USD benefited from the risk-off sentiment, which added to intraday selling. Following a spike in COVID-19 infections, the Australian state of Victoria was forced into a lockdown on Thursday.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7700, 0.7600, 0.7513
Support Levels: 0.7414, 0.7372, 0.7220
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
At the start of the American session, the AUDUSD broke through a minor support level of 0.7450. A breakdown is a sell signal, with a target of sub-0.7400, however with an initial target possibly on the solid support at 0.7414 for near-term profit-taking. In all likelihood, the AUDUSD exchange rate will continue to fall over the next trading session.

The 0.7350 level could be a potential target for bears. While the retracement from the 0.8000 level is still happening, there isn’t enough data to confirm a positive trend reversal at this time. That is, it could just represent a reversal of the long-term consolidation tendency. On the plus side, a bullish comeback above the 0.7650 marks will restore buyer confidence.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The momentum indicators on the 4-hour time frame, on the other hand, are currently pointing to a continued sell-off in the near term. The RSI remains beneath its midline 50 and heading towards the oversold level of 40, while the 4-hour moving averages 5 & 13 are dropping, they remain above price in the negative zone.

However, if the market closes over the minor resistance at 0.7476 in the next sessions, it might stoke buying interest and confirm further rising towards the 0.7600 hurdles, which is still the current high in July. If there is a strong rebound, the 0.7700 barriers, which were identified as pivot zone in June 2021, could be the next target.

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AUDUSD Stable Past 0.7500, With the Absence of Momentum

7 July 2021 | Updated: 7 July 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 7

Despite a lack of strong follow-through, the AUDUSD pair maintained its bid tone and held solidly above the 0.7500 psychological thresholds during the first half of the European session. Indications that the Fed may maintain its ultra-loose monetary stance for a prolonged period continued to operate as a barrier for the dollar, as AUDUSD gained some support.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7600, 0.7531
Support Levels: 0.7450, 0.7414, 0.7372
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
A sustained break above the 0.7500 levels, as seen on the daily charts, is required to confirm the bullish trend in the AUDUSD. The moving average of 13 also stifles growth. Meanwhile, a break below the 5 moving averages at 0.7500 could temper bullish enthusiasm, for the time being, leading AUDUSD sellers to a weekly low of around 0.7444.

In a broader sense, continuous trading above horizontal resistance at 0.7531 indicates a positive bias in the medium term. To signify the continuation of a long-term rally from 0.7000, the AUDUSD must break out of the 0.8000 yearly highs set on February 25. A break towards the 0.7700 marks, on the other hand, will keep the long-term trend going.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The general AUDUSD gain continues, with the 4-hour chart showing a temporary high of 0.7598. Intraday bias has returned past the critical 0.7500 levels today. A sustained breakout could result in a strong bullish outcome. On Wednesday, despite a weakening US dollar, the AUD/USD pair managed to gain some ground.

In the event of a retracement, a breach of the 0.7476 support band would signal a short-term high; however, the pattern might continue the consolidation. The uptrend line, which is now near the 0.7450 marks, could provide technical support to the bulls in the AUDUSD in case of a decline. Any movement beneath the surface, on the other hand, could enrage the bears.

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AUDUSD Dips to 0.7476 Level As the Dollar Recovers

1 July 2021 | Updated: 1 July 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 1

The AUDUSD fell 27 pips, or 0.23 percent, against the US Dollar on Thursday. During the trading session, the currency pair dips to the prior months’ low of June 18 on the level at 0.7476. At the 0.7480 level, the exchange rate is now trading at the bottom of a declining channel pattern.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7600, 0.7531
Support Levels: 0.7476, 0.7414, 0.7372
AUDUSD Long term trend: Ranging
At the start of the European session, the AUDUSD plunged to June’s low level at 0.7476 level. A breakdown is a sell signal, with targets of 0.7414 and 0.7372 level, possibly as far as solid support around 0.7220 for long-term profit-taking. In all likelihood, the AUDUSD exchange rate will continue to fall over the next trading session.

The 0.7414 level could be a potential target for bears. While the comeback from the 0.7000 level was significant, there is still insufficient data to confirm a bullish trend reversal. That is, it could simply be a reversal of the long-term downturn. A breach of the 0.7414 level on the upside would prolong the rise from 0.7000 level higher.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD is range-bound from the 0.7616 level, with a neutral intraday tendency. With the 0.7476 support level intact, a prolonged climb is being considered. The range trend from 0.7000 to 0.8000 may have completed and now returning to a downward path.

On the upside, a break of the 0.7616 level might lead to a target and a test of the 0.7645 high level. The strong break may trigger a stronger bounce from the 0.7476 level. However, a breach of the 0.7476 minor support level on the downside will likely prolong the range trend from the 0.7616 level with another plummeting phase.

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AUDUSD Rises for the 4th Day in a Row Towards 0.7600

24 June 2021 | Updated: 24 June 2021

AUDUSD Price Analysis – June 24

The AUDUSD pair has been trending upward for the first 4 days of the week, lingering at the top end of its intraday trading range, around 0.7586, heading into the American session. Following a slight bounce in the prior day, the US Dollar Index struggles for traction while focusing switches to the US’ important macroeconomic data releases.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7800, 0.7700, 0.7600
Support Levels: 0.7531, 0.7476, 0.7350
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
AUDUSD is approaching the weekly resistance around 0.7600 in the European session on Thursday. As a result, the Australian pair validates its rebound from the ascending trendline support at 0.7476 level. After trading below the weekly high in the first half of the day, keeping AUDUSD’s constrained, the bulls are back.
 
However, buyers remain optimistic due to strong momentum and trading past the weekly rising support line. As a result, AUDUSD traders should wait for a clear break of the area between the indicated moving average (5 and 13) which is now around 0.7600 and 0.7531 levels, respectively.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
Beyond the mid 0.7500 marks, the AUDUSD continues in a range, with the intraday tilting first towards the 0.7600 level. A further gain could ensure that the 0.7600 thresholds is been crossed. The short-term gain from 0.7476 to 0.7599 might reach 0.7700 levels.

However, given the prolonged consolidation state in the 4 hour RSI, a return to the 0.7476 support level could imply a short-term topping. The intraday bias will be shifted back to the downside as the market corrects towards a weaker support level at 0.7400.

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