Swiss Franc Rebounds As AUD and USD Selloff Continues

Updated:

Despite the lack of confirmation, additional Dollar weakness lies ahead, as the near-term trend is reversing. However, in the event of more Dollar depreciation, the Australian dollar would be a currency to avoid. Given its relative strength against the Euro and Sterling, the Swiss Franc is more likely to be a better option than not.

On the other hand, the Swiss franc appears to be strengthening ahead of the traditionally volatile August. EUR/CHF continued its decline from 1.1149 to 1.0740. The oversold state of the daily RSI is not slowing it down, but the daily MACD is suggesting a downside acceleration.

The current focus is on support for the 1.0737 clusters (61.8% retracement from 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0751). Strong trading below that level this week will pave the way for a retest of the 1.0505 low. And, in any case, the short-term outlook will remain bearish as long as support at 1.0802 holds resistance.

Last week’s selloff in the dollar drew a lot of attention, but it eased down at the conclusion. Traders are hedging their bets, for the time being, expecting the release of the July statistics. Indeed, the Australian Dollar was the weakest performer, owing partially to risk aversion in China and Hong Kong and partly to RBA QE predictions. The second-worst currency was the New Zealand Dollar, which was followed by the US dollar.

AUD’s Underlying Vulnerability

Australia is to publish Monday’s AIG Manufacturing Index for July and Commonwealth Bank’s Manufacturing PMI for the same month. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, and investors are looking forward to another dovish stance from Lowe & Co.

The Australian currency was the worst, with AUD/USD ending the week at 0.7330, as the country’s ongoing virus problem kept the Aussie off investors’ attention. The CAD sank against the greenback as well, but only after hitting new highs against its American counterpart.

The AUD/USD pair is down for the fifth week in a row and modestly lower weekly. The pair fell on Friday, pulled down by the gloomy tone of global indices. Since the country adopted local restrictive policies that hampered economic expansion, the Australian dollar has been unable to attract purchasers. Gold prices are falling, putting more pressure on the pair at the end of the week.

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AUDUSD Daily Gains Stay Beneath 0.7400 After FOMC

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 29

AUDUSD drew some dip-buying on Thursday and aims to build on the prior day’s rally from the 0.7316 zones. Amid the dominant US dollar selling tendency after the FOMC, the pair was last spotted slightly beneath the 0.7400 marks, towards the upper end of its daily trading range.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7775, 0.7600, 0.7450
Support Levels: 0.7289, 0.7200, 0.7100
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
In the meantime, an upside breakout of the horizontal resistance level of 0.7414 may need to hit the main resistance level of 0.7600 before the bulls can take control. While doing so, the 0.7450 level, which is an upside range zone, may attract investor interest before the previous month’s peak, reaching 0.7775.

Whilst the bears are projected to lose control near the 0.7289 marks, they will target the 0.7200 round level for further control before reinforcing the November 2020 lows after finding channel support near the 0.7100 level. Though from a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD pair has struggled to break past the 0.7400 round figure thus far.

AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD intraday bias is unchanged, with the attention shifting from the 0.7565 weekly support level to the 0.7414 resistance level. As a result, a continuing breach could imply that the 0.7800 pullback was successful. To retest this level, the intraday bias will be shifted back to the upside.

Breaking the AUDUSD level of 0.7414 will signal a resumption of growth from the 0.7289 level. The intraday trend is resuming. The long-term level of 0.7600 is the next aim. A drop below the minor support level of 0.7372, on the other hand, could change the bullish bias and trigger sideways trading.

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AUDUSD Gains Traction for the 2nd Day in a Row As the Dollar Weakens

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 22

During the early European session, the AUDUSD pair soared to fresh weekly highs, hovering around the 0.7387 level. The pair recovered positive traction for the second consecutive session, and it is now attempting to build on the previous day’s impressive recovery from sub-0.7300 levels. The risk-on sentiment weakens the dollar and boosted the perceived riskier Australian dollar.

Key Level
Resistance Levels: 0.7600, 0.7500, 0.7414
Support Levels: 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7100
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
From a technical standpoint, the recovery from the low level of 0.7289 propelled the pair towards the psychological level of 0.7400 short of 13 pips. The rebound constituted the construction of an upside continuation chart pattern, given the recent steep pullback from the important 0.7598 levels or July high.

On the other hand, weakness below the weekly swing lows, around the 0.7289 zones, could confirm the retracement setup and drag the pair back to the 0.7220 levels. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for a further depreciating move in the near term, en route to the 0.7000 round-figure marks and support zone.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
On the 4-hour time frame, the AUDUSD trend is unchanged, and the intraday bias initially remains at the downside channel. The fall from the 0.7598 level might continue, with a test of the 0.7289 temporary low near the rising trendline support. However, as long as the 0.7300 confluence level holds, the trend could continue to be optimistic.

On the upside, a break above the minor resistance level of 0.7414 might shift the bias to the upside, allowing for a retest of the 0.7598 level. The break may signal the start of a larger rally from 0.7000. In the meanwhile, a definitive violation of the 0.7300 zones might trigger a steeper decline.

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AUDUSD Declines Under Mid-0.7400, USD Gains on Risk-Off Sentiment

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 15

During the early North American session, the AUDUSD pair kept its offered tone, plunging underneath the mid-0.7400 level. The USD benefited from the risk-off sentiment, which added to intraday selling. Following a spike in COVID-19 infections, the Australian state of Victoria was forced into a lockdown on Thursday.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7700, 0.7600, 0.7513
Support Levels: 0.7414, 0.7372, 0.7220
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
At the start of the American session, the AUDUSD broke through a minor support level of 0.7450. A breakdown is a sell signal, with a target of sub-0.7400, however with an initial target possibly on the solid support at 0.7414 for near-term profit-taking. In all likelihood, the AUDUSD exchange rate will continue to fall over the next trading session.

The 0.7350 level could be a potential target for bears. While the retracement from the 0.8000 level is still happening, there isn’t enough data to confirm a positive trend reversal at this time. That is, it could just represent a reversal of the long-term consolidation tendency. On the plus side, a bullish comeback above the 0.7650 marks will restore buyer confidence.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The momentum indicators on the 4-hour time frame, on the other hand, are currently pointing to a continued sell-off in the near term. The RSI remains beneath its midline 50 and heading towards the oversold level of 40, while the 4-hour moving averages 5 & 13 are dropping, they remain above price in the negative zone.

However, if the market closes over the minor resistance at 0.7476 in the next sessions, it might stoke buying interest and confirm further rising towards the 0.7600 hurdles, which is still the current high in July. If there is a strong rebound, the 0.7700 barriers, which were identified as pivot zone in June 2021, could be the next target.

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AUDUSD Stable Past 0.7500, With the Absence of Momentum

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 7

Despite a lack of strong follow-through, the AUDUSD pair maintained its bid tone and held solidly above the 0.7500 psychological thresholds during the first half of the European session. Indications that the Fed may maintain its ultra-loose monetary stance for a prolonged period continued to operate as a barrier for the dollar, as AUDUSD gained some support.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7600, 0.7531
Support Levels: 0.7450, 0.7414, 0.7372
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
A sustained break above the 0.7500 levels, as seen on the daily charts, is required to confirm the bullish trend in the AUDUSD. The moving average of 13 also stifles growth. Meanwhile, a break below the 5 moving averages at 0.7500 could temper bullish enthusiasm, for the time being, leading AUDUSD sellers to a weekly low of around 0.7444.

In a broader sense, continuous trading above horizontal resistance at 0.7531 indicates a positive bias in the medium term. To signify the continuation of a long-term rally from 0.7000, the AUDUSD must break out of the 0.8000 yearly highs set on February 25. A break towards the 0.7700 marks, on the other hand, will keep the long-term trend going.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
The general AUDUSD gain continues, with the 4-hour chart showing a temporary high of 0.7598. Intraday bias has returned past the critical 0.7500 levels today. A sustained breakout could result in a strong bullish outcome. On Wednesday, despite a weakening US dollar, the AUD/USD pair managed to gain some ground.

In the event of a retracement, a breach of the 0.7476 support band would signal a short-term high; however, the pattern might continue the consolidation. The uptrend line, which is now near the 0.7450 marks, could provide technical support to the bulls in the AUDUSD in case of a decline. Any movement beneath the surface, on the other hand, could enrage the bears.

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AUDUSD Dips to 0.7476 Level As the Dollar Recovers

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – July 1

The AUDUSD fell 27 pips, or 0.23 percent, against the US Dollar on Thursday. During the trading session, the currency pair dips to the prior months’ low of June 18 on the level at 0.7476. At the 0.7480 level, the exchange rate is now trading at the bottom of a declining channel pattern.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7645, 0.7600, 0.7531
Support Levels: 0.7476, 0.7414, 0.7372
AUDUSD Long term trend: Ranging
At the start of the European session, the AUDUSD plunged to June’s low level at 0.7476 level. A breakdown is a sell signal, with targets of 0.7414 and 0.7372 level, possibly as far as solid support around 0.7220 for long-term profit-taking. In all likelihood, the AUDUSD exchange rate will continue to fall over the next trading session.

The 0.7414 level could be a potential target for bears. While the comeback from the 0.7000 level was significant, there is still insufficient data to confirm a bullish trend reversal. That is, it could simply be a reversal of the long-term downturn. A breach of the 0.7414 level on the upside would prolong the rise from 0.7000 level higher.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Bearish
The AUDUSD is range-bound from the 0.7616 level, with a neutral intraday tendency. With the 0.7476 support level intact, a prolonged climb is being considered. The range trend from 0.7000 to 0.8000 may have completed and now returning to a downward path.

On the upside, a break of the 0.7616 level might lead to a target and a test of the 0.7645 high level. The strong break may trigger a stronger bounce from the 0.7476 level. However, a breach of the 0.7476 minor support level on the downside will likely prolong the range trend from the 0.7616 level with another plummeting phase.

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AUDUSD Rises for the 4th Day in a Row Towards 0.7600

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – June 24

The AUDUSD pair has been trending upward for the first 4 days of the week, lingering at the top end of its intraday trading range, around 0.7586, heading into the American session. Following a slight bounce in the prior day, the US Dollar Index struggles for traction while focusing switches to the US’ important macroeconomic data releases.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.7800, 0.7700, 0.7600
Support Levels: 0.7531, 0.7476, 0.7350
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
AUDUSD is approaching the weekly resistance around 0.7600 in the European session on Thursday. As a result, the Australian pair validates its rebound from the ascending trendline support at 0.7476 level. After trading below the weekly high in the first half of the day, keeping AUDUSD’s constrained, the bulls are back.
 
However, buyers remain optimistic due to strong momentum and trading past the weekly rising support line. As a result, AUDUSD traders should wait for a clear break of the area between the indicated moving average (5 and 13) which is now around 0.7600 and 0.7531 levels, respectively.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
Beyond the mid 0.7500 marks, the AUDUSD continues in a range, with the intraday tilting first towards the 0.7600 level. A further gain could ensure that the 0.7600 thresholds is been crossed. The short-term gain from 0.7476 to 0.7599 might reach 0.7700 levels.

However, given the prolonged consolidation state in the 4 hour RSI, a return to the 0.7476 support level could imply a short-term topping. The intraday bias will be shifted back to the downside as the market corrects towards a weaker support level at 0.7400.

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AUDUSD Bounces off Support, Requires Sufficient Strength To Sustain

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – June 10

The AUDUSD is holding its gains but stays underneath the 0.7775 level, increasing 0.36 percent to 0.7756 at the time of writing from a low of 0.7717 and slightly below the day’s high of 0.7763. The AUDUSD is stabilizing underneath the 0.8000 high, with a little noticeable upward thrust.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.8136, 0.7980, 0.7800
Support Levels: 0.7725, 0.7645, 0.7557
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
On the daily chart, the AUDUSD is set to flip the MA 5 and MA 13 convergence into support. Within the barriers, the pair has traded in a confined range, with a session low of 0.7717 and a daily high of 0.7763 at the time of this post. The next high of 0.7800 might be exposed if a convincing break higher occurs.

However, the MA 5 is now heading north, indicating bullish pressure, and may add to the increase. As a result, a sustained advance over 0.7800 appears probable. Nonetheless, given the established resistance levels above 0.7800, the path of least resistance appears to be lower.

AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
On the four-hour time frame, the AUDUSD pair is in a range within the middle channel and appears to be aiming for the 0.7800 marks. If the remains within the channel, selling pressure is anticipated to build, resulting in a decline towards a low of 0.7745. If all other factors remain constant, the currency rate may continue to consolidate throughout the next trading session.

The area near known support at 0.7645 could be a potential target for negative traders. The AUDUSD pair is only negative when trading below 0.7725, with significant support at the 0.7645 marks. The AUDUSD pair is only bullish if it is trading above 0.7725; significant resistance levels are at 0.7800 and 0.7980.

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Aussie: After a Delayed Recovery, Is AUDUSD Ready To Make a Turnaround?

Updated:

The Aussie has risen further, reaching a new high of 0.7745. After a 70-pip rebound from the lows, it has remained at the top, erasing the majority of the week’s losses. The Aussie rise was sparked by a general decrease in the US dollar following the release of the US employment report. Payrolls increased by 559K in May, falling short of forecasts and defying the chances of a good surprise following Thursday’s employment statistics.

The dollar had been in a strong position to conclude the year but was regrettably brought down by a good, but disappointing non-farm payroll report. The data hasn’t changed Fed officials’ underlying view, so it’s just time to speak about talking about tapering for now. The influence of vaccine and inflation dynamics will take some time to fully manifest.

However, the New Zealand Dollar has been the weakest performer, retracing some of its recent gains. Despite some strong statistics, the Euro was the second-worst. Therefore, if the ECB implies that it is ready to slow down the pace of asset purchases this week, the Euro could see some upside, at least against the dollar and the Yen. Surprisingly, the Australian Dollar was the strongest, and it has the technical capacity to outperform in the future.

As Aussie Rises, DXY Fell Below the 50-Day Moving Average

Last week, the dollar index’s recovery stalled once more, failing to even reach the 50-day MA (now at 90.71). With the 90.90 barriers intact, the near-term view remains bearish, as the decline from 93.43 might extend to a retest of the 89.20 low. At this time, the daily RSI’s negative momentum does not necessitate a major break there.

With another rise and a break of resistance at 90.90, the consolidation pattern from 89.20 will be extended back to 93.43. A firm breach of 89.20, on the other hand, will resume the downtrend from 102.99 to 88.25 long-term support and below. Surprisingly, the Aussie ended up as the strongest, thanks to a late rebound. Technically, there is a chance that the Australian dollar will recover from its three-month slump.

In particular, the AUD/USD pullback from 0.7890 appears to have ended around 0.7644. This week’s initial emphasis is on the 0.7772 resistance level. A big break of the 0.7890 resistance will reinforce this bullish thesis and lead to a larger rise over the 0.7890 resistance. With a sustained breach of 0.7890, the broader rising trend from 0.5506 is expected to resume through the 0.8006 high.

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AUDUSD Pair Trades Flat Beneath Mid-0.7700s on COVID Lockdowns

Updated:

AUDUSD Price Analysis – May 27

During the first half of the European session, the AUDUSD pair oscillates amid mild gains and modest losses and was last seen trading in the neutral zone, just below the mid-0.7700s. The recent COVID lockdowns in Australia, as well as a milder risk tone, limited the Aussie’s upward potential.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.8000, 0.7890, 0.7800
Support Levels: 0.7700, 0.7650, 0.7600
AUDUSD Long term Trend: Ranging
The downside risks pushed the Australian Dollar lower against the US Dollar after the prior day’s trading session, the exchange rate fell 54 pips or 0.70 percent. In the larger scheme of things, the entire downtrend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have already ended at 0.5506 (2020 low).

The gain from 0.5506 could represent the start of a long-term uptrend, or it might be a corrective climb. The reaction to the crucial resistance level of 0.8136 will tell which situation it is. However, as long as 0.7414 resistance turned support persists, the medium-term surge is projected to continue.
AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging
Despite remaining above the 0.7700 support zone, the AUDUSD intraday mood remains in a range. The resistance level of 0.7800 remains steady at the top of the chart; an additional drop is likely. The initial constraints, on the other hand, could be related to the horizontal support floor at 0.7725.

A breach of 0.7725 will, on the other hand, resume the corrective slide from 0.7890, with a 38.2 percent retracement objective of 0.4877. A firm breach of the 0.7800 level, on the other hand, would lead to a retest of the 0.7890 high. The intraday bias may shift to the downside seeking 0.7531 support and potentially further lower.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

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