USDCAD testing the low of the bullish structure

USDCAD testing the low of the bullish structure

Key Support: 125.50
Key Resistance: 1.2610 – 1.2750

The USDCAD has pulled back -2.2% from last week’s highs right to the 50% and the low of the bullish structure.

Price is currently trapped inside of a range below the weekly pivot whilst printing good bullish divergence should this be the next higher low.

Last week/this week’s low is not yet considered a new higher low in this structure because price has not yet broken with the immediate lower high.

The idea here is to buy that exact breakout to ride the next bullish momentum to the retest of last week’s highs.

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USDCAD: Uncertainty in Crude Oil Triggers Massive Swings

USDCAD: Uncertainty in Crude Oil Triggers Massive Swings

As crude oil prices rose in the past year, the USDCAD rate has declined. Canada is an oil export-oriented country and the price of oil affects the price of the Canadian dollar. Hence, USDCAD trades in inverse proportion to oil. In June, the pair split from oil as the two assets started moving in the same direction.

The upbeat stock market rekindled economic hopes and allowed dollar buyers to rest on Wednesday. This gave added strength to the price of WTI crude, a key Canadian export product, which posted the strongest daily gain since April.

However, the increase in the official oil reserves, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), by + 2.11 mln. Against the forecast of -4.46 mln. And -7.89 mln. Earlier, it affected oil prices. In addition, the escalation of Delta covid variants with multi-day high infection rates in Australia and Tokyo, not to mention the gradual increase in daily cases in the UK and China, is putting additional pressure on USDCAD prices.

During the Asian session on Thursday, USDCAD rallied around 1.2580, gaining 0.20% during the day. The Canadian dollar pair fell the most in six weeks on the previous day, marking a two-day drop before turning back from a weekly low during the day.

USDCAD Bounces Back, Snaps Two-Day Decline

During Thursday’s session, the USDCAD trades around 1.2580, up 0.20 percent intraday. The previous day, the loonie pair fell to its lowest level in over six weeks, marking the start of a two-day decline, before reversing from the weekly low thus far during the day.

Although the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still trading sideways after retreating from a three-month high, the recent drop in oil prices appears to have helped USDCAD investors. It’s worth noting that the pair’s recent performance could be linked to their recent weakness in Australia, which coincides with the coronavirus outbreak.

Concerns about the potential economic consequences of the emergence of the highly contagious Delta version of the coronavirus appeared to have faded. This was evidenced by a generally upbeat mood in the stock markets, which reduced demand for conventional safe-haven currencies like the dollar. The overnight strong rebound in crude oil prices, on the other hand, continued to boost the commodity-linked loonie and helped to hold any major gains for the USD/CAD pair.

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USD/Cad Falls to Level 1.2525 Low, Resume Up Trending

USD/Cad Falls to Level 1.2525 Low, Resume Up Trending

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.1900, 1.1800, 1.1700

USD/CAD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
USD/CAD downward move has reached bearish exhaustion as the market resumed upward move. Since July 20, the currency pair has been in a downward move as price fell to level 1.2525 and pulled back. Meanwhile, on July 19 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will rise to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or level 1.3316.

USD/CAD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
USD/CAD has risen to level 57 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the pair is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. The currency pair has a bullish crossover as 21-day SMA crosses over the 50-day SMA. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward.

USD/CAD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD is in a downward move. The downtrend has subsided but bullish candlesticks are indicating an upward movement of the pair. Buyers are expected to emerge in the oversold region of the market.

USD/CAD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
USD/CAD is below the 20% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in the oversold region of the market. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.

General Outlook for USD/CAD
USD/CAD pair has commenced resumption of an upward move. The bearish trend ended at the low of 1.2525. The uptrend will resume if price breaks the level 1.2800 resistance level. According to the Fibonacci tool, the currency pair will rise to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or level 1.3316.


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USDCAD under pressure as DXY weakens

USDCAD under pressure as DXY weakens

Key Resistance: 1.2550
Key Support: 1.2500 – 1.2450

The USDCAD rallied yesterday on the Bank of Canada monetary report and rate decision to keep it at 0.25% and continue its asset purchasing program.

This is bearish for the currency and the reason the USDCAD rallied.

In the long term, the USDCAD has dipped more than 18% from the pandemic highs to the lows of the long term move. From the lows of the move (1.20 level) it has rallied about 4.90% to a very thick key level. This is the level where we will see a lot of sellers jump in and yesterday´s spike on monetary policy report can be very short lived.

The DXY saw a very bearish day yesterday and has printed a new daily low with price testing the weekly pivot. Today the DXY retested the previous broken key level (92.50) and continued its move down signaling a bearish continuation.

The USDCAD has failed 4 times already to break above the 1.2560-1.2590 level which indicates heavy selling pressure here.

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USD/CAD Is In an Uptrend, Battles the Resistance at Level 1.2600

USD/CAD Is In an Uptrend, Battles the Resistance at Level 1.2600

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.1900, 1.1800, 1.1700

USD/CAD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
USD/CAD is in an upward move. Since March, the currency pair has been battling to break the resistance at level 1.2600. The uptrend will resume if the resistance level is breached. The sideways trend will continue if the resistance remains unbroken. Meanwhile, on July 8 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will rise to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or level 1.2865.

USD/CAD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
USD/CAD has risen to level 62 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the pair is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. It is also approaching the overbought region of the market. . The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward.

USD/CAD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD is in an uptrend. The currency price reached the resistance level and was repelled. The currency pair fell to level 1.2440 and resumed upward. Meanwhile, on July 13 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will rise to level 1.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.2595.

USD/CAD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
USD/CAD is above the 60% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum and it is approaching the overbought region. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.

General Outlook for USD/CAD
USD/CAD pair upward move has been stalled below level 1.2600. The uptrend will resume if the resistance is breached. According to the Fibonacci tool, the currency pair will rise to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or level 1.2865.

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USD/CAD Upwards Continuation Signaled!

USD/CAD Upwards Continuation Signaled!

USD/CAD maintains a bullish bias after escaping from a minor chart pattern. Also, it has managed to stay above the daily pivot point (1.2498) indicating strong buyers.

Higher inflation reported by the US boosted the greenback in yesterday’s session. USD/CAD has slipped lower in the short term, but the bias remains bullish. You should be careful later today and the BOC Rate Statement and the BOC Press Conference could bring high volatility and sharp movements.

USD/CAD H1 Technical Analysis!

USD/CAD has decreased from 1.2539 yesterday’s high and now it has found support on the daily pivot point of 1.2498. It has developed a minor Falling Wedge pattern, so an upside breakout could bring continuation.

Coming back and stabilizing above the 78.6% retracement level could attract more buyers. The upside scenario could be invalidated if USD/CAD drops and stabilizes under the daily pivot point (1.2498).

Conclusion!

USD/CAD could resume its growth if the DXY jumps higher. Technically, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the daily pivot point!

 

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Olimpiu Tuns graduated with a Master in Business Administration and is a seasoned Market Analyst / Trader / Trainer with 10 years of experience in the financial markets having expertise in Forex, Commodities, Index, Cryptocurrencies, and Stocks. He worked as a Market Analyst for three major brokerage companies, as a prop trader, and as a contributor/content creator for news portals and educational platforms.

USDCAD dip buys in play

USDCAD dip buys in play

Key Support: 1.2450
Key Resistance: 1.2515 – 1.255

The USDCAD has rallied 4.88% from the June 1st lows. That about a 585 pip move from low to high. After hitting those highs around 1.2590 on July 8th we´ve seen a -1.17% pullback (-147.5 pips) right to the previous broken key level.

This level confluence with the weekly pivot and we are seeing a massive bullish divergence here. The highest probability trade here is a buy since this level is were we saw buyers jump in at the beginning of last week.

the overall structure in this market is very bullish short-mid term as the USD continues to see buying pressure due to the Fed hinting 2 rate hikes by  2023.

The Canadian Dollar is suffering from higher inflation and lower than expected GDP growth which is bullish for the USDCAD also.

This setup has a very high probability of success and we are riding a 2R on this trade.

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USD/CAD Is In a Brief Uptrend but May Reverse at Level 1.2544

USD/CAD Is In a Brief Uptrend but May Reverse at Level 1.2544

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.1900, 1.1800, 1.1700

USD/CAD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
USD/CAD has resumed an upward move after reaching the low of 1.2300. The currency pair has broken the previous resistance at level 1.2450 as the pair approaches the target price of 1.2750. Meanwhile, on June 18 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will rise to level 1.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.2767.

USD/CAD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
USD/CAD has risen to level 67 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the pair is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. It is also approaching the overbought region of the market. . The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward.

USD/CAD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD is in an uptrend. The price has broken the previous high. Meanwhile, on July 6 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will rise to level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or level 1.2544 and reverse. From the price action, the market has reached thigh of level 1.2522.

USD/CAD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
USD/CAD is above the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum and has reached the overbought region. However, sellers are likely to emerge in the overbought region. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.

General Outlook for USD/CAD
USD/CAD pair has resumed upward move. The currency pair is likely to rise on the upside but may face rejection. It is presently trading in the overbought region as the pair will soon drop to the downside.


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USD/Cad Declines as It Faces Rejection at Level 1.2500

USD/Cad Declines as It Faces Rejection at Level 1.2500

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.1900, 1.1800, 1.1700

USD/CAD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
Since June 21, the USD/CAD upward move has been interrupted. The currency pair is facing rejection at the 1.2500 resistance level. The market is declining on the downside. If price breaks below the moving averages, it will accelerate the downward move. On March 17 downtrend, a retraced candle body tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will fall to level 2.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.1771.

USD/CAD -Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
USD/CAD has fallen to level 56 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the pair is still in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping downward.

USD/CAD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD is in a downward move. The currency price is attempting to break below the moving averages. A break below the moving averages will signal the resumption of selling pressure.

USD/CAD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
USD/CAD is above the 25% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum. However, the stochastic bands are pointing downward indicating the downtrend. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping downward indicating the downtrend.

General Outlook for USD/CAD
USD/CAD pair is now in a downward move. On the daily chart, if price falls and finds support above the moving averages, the uptrend will resume. However, the downtrend will continue if price breaks below the SMAs or the trend line.

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USDCAD bearish breakout in play

USDCAD bearish breakout in play

Key Resistance: 1.2500
Key Support: 1.2350 – 1.2300 – 1.2200

After last week’s big rally the USDCAD hit a big key level, the previous broken base at the 1.2500 level. This level is key because it held as support for more than 1 month (Feb. 25 – April 26) before the bearish move continued.

This market is still very much bearish with the Canadian Dollar strength overwhelming the USD weakness (long term). Price has now broken with the short term bullish structure whilst printing massive bearish divergence at the top of the structure on a reversal pattern.

We are targeting a pullback here on possible USD weakness (DXY’s pullback at the top of the bullish structure, explained on the daily watchlist) towards the weekly pivot area at the break of today’s lows.

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