US Dollar Stays Weak Amid Lack of Momentum in British Pound

US Dollar Stays Weak Amid Lack of Momentum in British Pound

The US dollar remained fairly weak yesterday, even though the yield on 10-year US bonds rose slightly, and the market’s attention turned to the CPI for March. Note that US CPI growth is expected to accelerate in March, and if that happens, it could heighten expectations of further inflationary pressures in the US economy, which will boost US yields.

In terms of monetary policy, it should be noted that Boston Fed President Rosengren said yesterday that the economy has recovered substantially, given adaptive monetary and fiscal policies, but still has a long way to go, especially in the labor market. On the other side of the Atlantic, the UK vaccination program is ongoing and the goal of offering the Covid vaccine to all people over 50 was reportedly met by mid-April.

At the same time, it should be noted that lockdowns have eased even further since yesterday as the UK allowed non-essential stores to reopen. We can see that investors will pay attention to the financial reports for February, especially the monthly GDP rates.

The outlook for GBP/USD remains unchanged amid a lack of momentum while the intraday outlook remains neutral. Some consolidation is possible, but the risk remains a downside as long as resistance at 1.3917 is held.
Amid Renewed Greenback Weakness USD/CAD Pair Gains
Earlier in the day, rising US Treasury yields supported the dollar, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a session high of 92.32, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising more than 1%.

However, the DXY reversed direction as the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to negative territory after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual core CPI rose to 1.6% in March. While this figure was slightly above market expectations of 1.5%, it remained below the Fed’s target of 2% and hurt the US dollar. The DXY is currently down 0.1% to 92.00.

Earlier in the day, rising US Treasury yields supported the dollar, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a session high of 92.32, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising more than 1%.

During European trading hours, the USD/CAD pair climbed to a daily high of 1.2626 before falling in the second half of the day. The pair was nearly unchanged regularly at 1.2561 at the time of publishing.

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GBP/USD Continues Downtrend After Rejection at Level 1.3900

GBP/USD Continues Downtrend After Rejection at Level 1.3900

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
GBP/USD has been in a downward move after its rejection from level 1.4200. After the initial fall, the Pound is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. On March 5, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement implies that the pound will fall to level 1.618 Fibonacci extensions or level 1.3493.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day and 50-SMAs are sloping horizontally. The pair has fallen to level 44 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Pound is in the downtrend zone and capable of falling on the downside.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has resumed a downward move. On April 8 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the pair is likely to fall to level 1.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.3641.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bearish momentum. The SMAs are sloping southward indicating the downtrend.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is in a downward ward move. The recent downtrend was a result of rejection from level 1.3900. According to the Fibonacci tool, the Pound will fall to level 1.3493.


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GBP/USD Resumes Upward Move, Targets Level 1.4909

GBP/USD Resumes Upward Move, Targets Level 1.4909

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bullish
The British Pound downtrend has been terminated on March 24 as bulls bought the dips. The pair has been in an upward movement since March 25. The pair’s price has broken above the SMAs.On March 5, a retraced candle body tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement implies that the pound will rise to 2.618 Fibonacci extensions or level 1.4909.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day and 50-SMAs are sloping upward. The pair has risen to level 55 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Pound is in the uptrend zone and capable of rising on the upside.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has resumed an upward move. On April 2, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the pair is likely to rise to level 1.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.3906. From the price action, the market is testing the Fibonacci level at 1.618.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently above the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in the overbought region. Sellers are likely to emerge. The SMAs are sloping northward indicating the uptrend.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is now in an upward move. The daily stochastic is indicating that the pair is in the overbought region of the market. However, the pound will continue to rise in a trending market. The overbought condition may not hold in a trending market.

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GBP/USD Resumes Downward Move, Targets Level 1.3491

GBP/USD Resumes Downward Move, Targets Level 1.3491

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
The British Pound has been in a downward move after its rejection at level 1.4200. The pair has fallen and broken below the moving averages. The implication is that the selling pressure will persist. On March 5 downtrend, a retraced candle body tested the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement implies that the pound will further decline to 1.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.3491.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day and 50-SMA are sloping downward. The pair has fallen to level 45 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Pound is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline 50. The pair is likely to further decline on the downside.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling after a range-bound movement in March. In February and March, the Pound was fluctuating between levels 1.3850 and 1.4000. On March 19, level 1.3850 was broken by price.
The selling pressure resumed after price pulled back and retested level 1.3850. The pair fell to level 1.3700. The market corrected upward to retest level 1.3850 before resuming downward.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently above the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in the overbought region. Sellers are likely to emerge. The SMAs are sloping southward indicating the downtrend.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is now in a downward move. The pair has retested level 1.3850 for the resumption of the downtrend. The downtrend is likely to reach 1.618 Fibonacci extension or level 1.3491.

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GBP/USD Has Fallen Into the Oversold Region, an Upward Move Likely

GBP/USD Has Fallen Into the Oversold Region, an Upward Move Likely

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bullish
GBP/USD upward move has been interrupted at level 1.4200. The pair fell to level 1.3800 support and resumed fluctuation between levels 1.3800 and 1.400. The pair has retested the resistance at level 1.400 but faces rejection. The market will resume an upward move if the resistance is breached. The currency pair has fallen to the lower price range. The support is likely to hold as there are bullish signals.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The moving averages are sloping upward indicating the upward move. The pair has fallen to level 45 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Yen is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline 50.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the market is presently falling. The pair has fallen to level 1.3820 and pulled back. Meanwhile, a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on March 22. The retracement indicates that price will fall to level 1.272 Fibonacci extension.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently below the 20% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bearish momentum. Buyers are likely to emerge. The SMAs are sloping horizontally.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is trading in the oversold region of the market. GBP/USD fell to level 1.3820 and pulled back. The long candlestick tails indicate that there is buying pressure at a longer price level. The Fibonacci tool has indicated a reversal at level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or 1.3776.


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GBP/USD Suffers Dip as US Treasury Bond Yields Drive Dollar Rally

GBP/USD Suffers Dip as US Treasury Bond Yields Drive Dollar Rally

The GBP/USD failed, once again, to scale the 1.4000 resistance and has fallen to the 1.3900 area, indicating that Wednesday’s post-dovish FOMC monetary policy effect on the market has worn off. The decline is getting its drive by the broad recovery of the US dollar, which is getting boosted by soaring US bond yields.

The GBP/USD has gotten rejected from the 1.4000 resistance for the fifth time this month, and we could see bears move in to drive the price to the 1.3800 area.

The rallying US government bond yields are the primary factor behind the decline GBP/USD on Thursday; nominal US 10-year yields have risen by more than 11 base points to take the asset above 1.75%, fresh cycle highs.

Meanwhile, the UK government bond yields also saw a rally today, although not as substantial as the US’ with the nominal UK 10-year yield up by six base points. This disparity means that the US/UK rate advantage has expanded, which is bearish for the GBP/USD.

Excerpts from the BoE Monetary Policy
As anticipated, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintained its QE program with a total of £895 billion, as the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to complete another £150 billion in asset purchases by the end of 2021.

 

In its monetary policy statement, the BoE noted that its current policy stance was appropriate and that news of plans to reopen the economy aligned with a slightly stronger economic outlook. However, the bank restated that it will not tighten its policy until undeniable progress towards eliminating spare capacity can be seen, and it achieves its 2.0% inflation target.

 

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GBP/USD Retraces After Rejection From Level 1.4000

GBP/USD Retraces After Rejection From Level 1.4000

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bullish
GBP/USD had been in an uptrend. The pair has been facing rejection at level 1.4200. On February 24 uptrend, a retraced candle body tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This retracement indicates that the Pound will rise to level 2.618 Fibonacci extension or the high of level 1.5303.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the upward move. The pair has fallen to level 52 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Pound is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is retracing. On March 12 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The Yen is likely to fall to level 2.0 Fibonacci extensions or the low of level 1.3722.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently below the 50% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bearish momentum. . The SMAs are sloping upward indicating the previous trend.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is presently retracing. The selling pressure may reach the low of 1.3722 before the resumption of uptrend.



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GBP/USD Reaches Bearish Exhaustion, May Reverse at Level 1.3805

GBP/USD Reaches Bearish Exhaustion, May Reverse at Level 1.3805


Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bullish
GBP/USD had been in an uptrend. The pair is currently retracing to the previous low. The price has broken the 21-day SMA but it is approaching the 50-day SMA. Once the price breaks the 50-day SMA, the market may further decline. On the other hand, if price finds support above 50-day SMA, the selling pressure is exhausted.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the upward move. The pair has fallen to level 47 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Yen is in the downtrend zone and below the centerline 50.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is in a downward move. On March 2 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The Yen is likely to fall to level 1.272 Fibonacci extensions or the low of level 1.3758 and reverse.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently above the 25% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum. . The SMAs are sloping horizontally.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is presently retracing. The retracement has reached bearish exhaustion. According to the Fibonacci tool analysis, the pound will reverse at level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or 1.3758.

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GBP/USD Retraces on the Downside, May Find Support Above Level 1.3807

GBP/USD Retraces on the Downside, May Find Support Above Level 1.3807

Key Resistance Levels: 1.4200, 1.4400, 1.4600
Key Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3200, 1.3000

GBP/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bullish
GBP/USD had been in an uptrend. The market is still retracing after the recent rejection at level 1.4200. It is likely the retracement will find support above the 21-day SMA or the trend line. In the previous price action, the pair retraced to the 21-day SMA support and resumed the uptrend.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the upward move. The pair has risen to level 72 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the Yen is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50.

GBP/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling after recent rejection. On February 26 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The Yen is likely to fall to level 1.272 Fibonacci extensions or the low of level 1.3807.

GBP/USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The GBP/USD pair is currently above the 25% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum. . The SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.

General Outlook for GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is in an uptrend. The Pound is currently retracing on the downside. According to the Fibonacci tool analysis, the pound will retrace to level 1.272 or 1.3807 and reverse.


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GBPUSD continues with last Friday’s sentiment

GBPUSD continues with last Friday’s sentiment

Key Resistance: 1.40
Key Support: 1.38

Mid Term View
After hitting and rejecting the 1.4200 level the GU crashed 358 pips (-2.50%) and broke with the 1.40 level to close lower on Friday. Sunday´s open brought buyers to push the Pound up to this previous level.

1H Chart Analysis
The retest of the 1.40 + previous lows + weekly pivot with the USD opening very strong gives us a great opportunity to short the Pound against the US Dollar for a retest of the previous week´s lows around the 1.3890 level.

The avg. weekly range of the past 3 weeks is around 240 pips here so we do have room for a nice move down. We will however closely monitor this trade and will close it on any sign of strength

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Author : Orlando Gutierrez