AUDJPY Bears Are Taking Another Round at Plunging the Market

20 September 2021 | Updated: 20 September 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – September 20

AUDJPY Bears Are trying to drown the market again after an initial failure at 78.300. Price broke downward out of distribution to reach for the 78.300 support, but unlike previous times where the market bounced up to break through the support, price kept moving up till it got to the 80.260 key level. Price moved to retest this level before pushing above it, thereby breaking the hold of the bears over the market. AUDJPY would go on to climb to 81.450, but the bulls weakened, and price slump down.


AUDJPY Key Levels

Resistance Levels: 80.260, 81.450
Support Levels: 79.300, 77.190

AUDJPY BearsAUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bearish

Price began a downtrend after forcing its way below the 84.220 key level. On its way down, the market adopted an undulating method of falling in which it bounces off support before drilling through it forcefully. This continued until price fell into distribution between 81.450 and 80.260, in which price had to bounce twice on 80.260 before plummeting down to 78.300, where price suffered rejection and was redirected.

AUDJPY beat a retreat from the 78.300 support to climb above 81.450, but renewed bearish pressure caused it to begin another downtrend as bears are determined to continue plunging the price. The EMA period 20 (Exponential Moving Average) has returned above the daily candles to show that bears are pushing to continue their bearish action. The EFI (Elders Force Index) temporarily moved positively but has now plummeted to a negative value to show bearish dominance.

AUDJPY Bears AUDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish

On the 4-hour chart, price is falling gently, but at intervals, the market tries to rally back up but bears often overpower the market. This happened on the 10th and 17th of September where AUDJPY temporarily rose above the EMA period 20. Those two instances cause the EFI power line to bump into a positive value before dropping below the zero level again.

Generally, AUDJPY remains a bearish market and we expect to see the price fall to 78.300 before further reactions.

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AUDJPY Faces the 80.760 Support Level in Its Downtrend

14 September 2021 | Updated: 14 September 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – September 13

AUDJPY faces the 80.760 key level as it slips downward. The market began an uptrend after price beat a retreat at the 78.200 support level. The market kept climbing upward till it reached 82.090, at which point the market was knocked down. On its way downward, however, AUDJPY now faces the 80.760 key level which is preventing it from falling further.


AUDJPY Important Zones

Resistance Zones: 81.500, 82.090, 82.900
Support Zones: 78.200, 79.460, 80.760

AUDJPY faces AUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bearish

The AUDJPY market for the past 3 months can generally be described as bearish. This is because, since the 16th of June 2021, price has been falling. Bears faced a confrontation in the fall, majorly at 82.900 and then at 80.760. However, when the market fell to 79.200 on the 19th of August, the downtrend was reversed and price began a fresh uptrend. The market grew 5.27% to reach 82.090, where AUDJPY met brutal resistance and started plunging again.

AUDJPY now faces the 80.760 key level again. The last time the price fell to this level, it took about 20 days to recover. The MA period 10 (Moving Average) has shifted to the top of the latest daily candle to push it further down. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing decreasing bullish histogram bars and its lines are converging towards the zero level. These emphasize the weight of bearish pressure in the market. But the 80.760 level will fancy its chances of keeping price up.

AUDJPY faces AUDJPY Short Term Trend: Ranging

AUDJPY 4-hour timeframe reveals that price has begun a ranging pattern below the 81.500 key level as 80.760 has been defending price. The MA period 10 remains above the 4-hours candlesticks, which is a sign of continuous market depression. The MACD Histogram has been all bearish since the 6th of September. Moreso, its lines are about to cross beneath the zero level. This shows that there is a tendency for the market to break lower from the 80.760 key level. When this happens, the price will fall to 80.100.

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AUD/JPY retesting historic key level

8 September 2021 | Updated: 8 September 2021

Key Resistance: 82.00
Key Support: 80.50 – 79.50 78.00

The AUD/JPY has been in a big rally (up 5.32% from August lows) but the overall structure in this market is very much bearish. If we look at the highs printed on May 10th to the lows printed on August 21st the AUD has declined -9.26% against the Yen.

The rally from the past couple of weeks is a 50% pullback from the entire bearish move. More so, it’s also a 61.8% pullback from July highs-to-August lows AND a 113% pullback of the entire August range. We have a Fibonacci cluster here.

We can also see price retesting the 82.00 level, which has been historically strong and this is the first retest of this level since it was broken back in July 15th.

My short position here follows the rationale of JPY strength AND USD strength. The USD rallying at the moment is bearish for the AUD and the JPY bouncing from key support is also bearish for the AUDJPY.

Double whammy.

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AUDJPY finally breaks out after initial capitulation

6 September 2021 | Updated: 6 September 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – September 6

AUDJPY finally breaks out from a descending trend after its initial failure to push out. Price has been on the decline for a total of 11 weeks before it finally breaks through. There was an initial cause for optimism on the 5th of August 2021, when the market edged out of the descending channel utilizing the 80.760 key level. Price held on for 5 days, but resistance from 81.500 weakened buyers to lead to a precipitous fall in the market, in which price slumped to 78.200.

AUDJPY Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 81.500, 82.090, 82.900
Support Levels: 78.200, 79.800, 80.760

AUDJPY finally breaks out

AUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish

The plunge in the market from 81.500 to 78.200 was a 3.98% drop in price. This emphasized the dominance of bears in the market at that time. However, buyers employed a morning star candlestick pattern to turn the market in their favor. This helped the Bulls retaliate with a massive 5.39% price increase to reach the 82.090 price level, thereby shrugging off the bears and breaking out of the decline that has plagued the market for weeks.

There is now a pullback in price to the 81.500 support. The retracement at this level is a signal for more bullish actions, as done previously at the 79.800 key level and on the MA period 20 (Moving Average) line. In the Stochastic Oscillator, the signal lines have risen to the overbought region. A cross of the signal lines reflects the current market retracement, but bulls need to be alert to prevent bears from taking over the market.

AUDJPY finally breaks out AUDJPY Short Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, the MA period 20 is seen acting as a support and upholding upward market movement. The retracement of the market is still above the MA line and it is expected to bounce off it to go higher. The Stochastic Oscillator, however, has its signal line break to the downside of the overbought region border after much downward tugging.

The market now hangs in the balance and price could move either way. There is, however, more optimism that the MA period 20 will keep price up and help it pass 82.090 to get to 82.900.

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AUDJPY Will Bounce off Key Zones Before Bearish Movement Continues

31 August 2021 | Updated: 31 August 2021

AUDJPY Market Analysis – August 30

AUDJPY will bounce off some key levels in a bid to keep moving downwards. For some time now, price has been on a descent. Price has been sliding downwards and bypassing the key levels. After a retest activity at the 81.600 key level, AUDJPY continued moving downward. AUDJPY dived below the trend-line and a major demand level at 80.200 before slipping past another significant key region at 79.000. Bullish pressure, which is causing a change in the market, has risen considerably. AUDJPY is creating a new lower high before price continues its slump.


AUDJPY Important Levels

Supply Levels: 81.600, 80.200
Demand Levels: 79.000, 77.900

AUDJPY will

AUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bearish

AUDJPY continues to fall due to violating the 80.200 demand level. Price should make a steady retracement before bearing on its bearish agenda. This retracement will be caused by upward pressure, and bulls will endeavor to rise somewhat before AUDJPY continues diving.

AUDJPY keeps climbing up, with the price aiming to break over 80.200 before retreating. Price initially offers a potential buy on the daily time frame when it changes direction at the 77.900 demand zone. However, this was caused by AUDJPY breaking out of the Bollinger Band. Price is now poised to overcome the middle band and rise to retest the upper band before price continues dipping.

AUDJPY will AUDJPY Short Term Trends: Bearish

AUDJPY is predicted to climb beyond 80.200, retesting significant zones in the 4-hour time frame before bearing on its bearish movement. Before retracement, the market may break over the trend line and react at 81.600. The Bollinger Band indicator displays market responses at the upper band. This suggests a bearish reversal when the market pulls back to that zone. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) is displaying bullish histogram bars suggesting upward movement and crosses showing losses in bullish impetus. This, however, plainly indicates that sellers will soon dominate the market.

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AUDJPY Is Likely to Make a Progressive Pullback Before It Continues Its Bearish Trend

24 August 2021 | Updated: 24 August 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – August 23

AUDJPY is likely to make a progressive pullback before resuming its current bearish trend. After breaking through the trendline and then a key support zone at 80.200, AUDJPY broke another significant key area at 79.000. There is a change in the market as bulls start to apply pressure, which has noticeably increased. The market is likely to make a retracement to 79.00 and then make a rebound or break above it.


AUDJPY Significant Zone

Resistance levels: 77.900, 79.000
Support level: 80.200, 81.600

 

AUDJPY is likely

AUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bearish

Following a massive breakout at the 80.2 support zone, AUDJPY kept falling. It is now likely to make a progressive pullback before continuing in its bearish trend. This pullback will be due to the buyers’ pressure, and the price will then try to go up a little before the progression of the bearish trend. This pullback by AUDJPY will then create a lower high.

At this point, the market is probably going to make a retest at the old support level of 77.90. It may further pull back from the support zone of 80.200. The Stochastic Oscillator clearly shows a golden cross near the 0.00 level. Therefore, this means that there is a change in the direction of the price movement. The price will tend to react up before the bearish trend continues.

AUDJPY is likely

AUDJPY Short Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, there appears to be a gradual pullback as the market begins to reverse its direction. The parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicates the emergence of a new direction. It displays three dots beneath the lower low. This confirms a progressive pullback. The stochastic Oscillator also shows a significant upward push. The market appears to be making a gradual return to the previous significant zone of 79.000. It could either break it upwards or retest it and continue in the bearish trend direction.

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Successful AUDJPY Break and Retest Strategy Would Push Price Higher

16 August 2021 | Updated: 16 August 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – August 16

A successful AUDJPY break and retest strategy would move the price to higher levels. The market had also executed this strategy when it was falling off the 82.900 price level. Price had been knocking down on this level for 95 trading days before the market fell, eventually on the 7th of July 2021. AUDJPY descended into a downward channel after executing a successful break and retest strategy below the 82.900 critical level.


AUDJPY Key Levels

Resistance Levels: 82.900, 81.500, 80.760
Support Levels: 79.800, 79.250, 78.200

 successful AUDJPY break and retest strategyAUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish

The market began descending steadily down a channel since its successful break and retest strategy. This downtrend continued till the beginning of August, when things began to take a different turn. Bulls cunningly phased the market out of the downtrend channel using the 80.760 support level on the 5th of August. Bears halted AUDJPY’s premature climb immediately at 81.500. Hence the price has now pulled back to carry out another break and retest strategy to surge upwards.

The retracement began on the 12th of August, and price has been longing to retest the channel’s upper border. A powerful confluence of the upper border and the 79.800 significant support await the market. The Elders Force Index has taken a slight plunge below the zero mark to reflect current market retracement. Not plunging very intensely at this point shows that a significant volume of buyers is still upholding the market.

 successful AUDJPY break and retest strategyAUDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish

Falling from the 80.760 key level, there has been much intensity shown by a line-up of 6 bearish candles on the 4-hour chart. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows strong and increasing bearish bars to reflect that intensity. The market is now driving towards the confluence zone. If the price drops with its current bearish intensity on the confluence, the market will proportionally spring up very high.

Bears could yet exploit the current bearish intensity of the market to break through a weakness and plunge back to the descending channel. But aside from this, price should retest the confluence and spring higher. The key level is in sight is 82.900.

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AUD Drops Sharply As Yen Surges, on the Back of Dismal Chinese Data

16 August 2021 | Updated: 16 August 2021

With Australia’s lockdowns being prolonged, the AUD remains weak. As the number of cases continues to climb, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Darwin remain under rigorous limitations. Australia is vulnerable to the highly contagious Delta form since just 26% of people over the age of 16 have been properly vaccinated. Today was the bloodiest day of the COVID-19 outbreak in Sydney, Australia’s largest city. To restrict people’s movement, troops and police built up barriers. Australia’s limitations are among the most stringent in the world, with extremely harsh penalties for breaking the lockdown regulations.

The AUD is also being impacted by the slowing Chinese economy, according to data. Annualized retail sales in July in China were 8.5 percent, versus 11.5 percent projected, and annualized industrial production was 6.4 percent, versus 7.8 percent expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to become more dovish (minutes from its last meeting will be released on Tuesday). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), on the other hand, remains one of the world’s most hawkish central banks and is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2014 on Wednesday.

The yen has risen sharply as a result of several risk-off factors, all of which are tied to the pandemic. As the coronavirus resurfaced, a slew of weaker-than-expected data from China signaled that the recovery is losing steam. Infections have increased in Japan, and Australia has imposed more restrictions. Commodity currencies are falling in general, with the Australian dollar being the hardest hit. The major European currencies are currently mixed but remain robust against the US dollar for the time being.

AUD Depreciates Sharply Against the Yen

A couple of risk-off factors have caused the AUDJPY also to fall strongly today. Heavier limits on the Delta variant’s surge are causing concern in Australia. Infections have reached new highs in New South Wales, while Melbourne has reverted to a night curfew. The Australian Capital Territory’s lockdown has been extended for another two weeks. The Northern Territory likewise goes under a three-day lockdown.

The AUD/USD pair got off to a shaky start in the new week, dropping to a daily low of 0.7331 before consolidating. As of this writing, the pair was trading at 0.7340, down 0.4 percent on the day. The US Dollar Index, on the other hand, which fell dramatically on Friday amid falling US Treasury note yields, is trading in a relatively tight range above 92.50 on Monday, allowing AUD valuation to dictate AUD/USD swings.

Retail sales in China increased by 8.5 percent year over year in July, according to figures released earlier in the day. By a large margin, this data fell short of the market consensus of an 11.5 percent increase. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased by 6.4 percent in the same period, compared to experts’ expectations of 7.8%. The China-proxy AUD was hit hard by these poor numbers at the start of the week.

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AUD/JPY Imminent Upside Breakout!

11 August 2021 | Updated: 11 August 2021

AUD/JPY rallied in yesterday’s trading session signaling that the downside is limited. It stands below the immediate downtrend line, so an upside breakout may signal continuation. It has moved sideways in the short term, but this sideways it cannot last indefinitely.

JP225 Technical Analysis! 

JP225 (Nikkei) has registered a valid breakout through the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (UML) and now is almost to take out the weekly R1 (28,112.8) resistance. Further growth signals that the Japanese Yen could depreciate versus its rivals.

AUD/JPY H4 Chart Technical Analysis!

AUD/JPY stands right below the downtrend line. Its failure to stabilize under the weekly (80.861) signaled that the buyers could take it higher. It has failed to come back down towards the lower median line (lml) signaling strong buyers.

Making a valid breakout above the downtrend line and registering a new higher high may signal an upwards movement ahead. AUD/JPY is trapped between the median line (ML) and the lower median line (LML). Jumping and stabilizing above the median line (ML) could really signal further growth.

Conclusion!

A valid breakout through the triangle’s resistance may bring further upwards movement in the short term.

 

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The 80.760 Support Lifts AUDJPY Above the Descending Channel in Bullish Tactics

9 August 2021 | Updated: 9 August 2021

AUDJPY Price Analysis – August 9

The 80.760 support has been used by buyers to lift AUDJPY out of depression. The market has been unsuccessful in trying to push out of 85.000 for several months since March. Bears have exploited this weakness to plummet the market below 82.900. AUDJPY has thus far been sliding down a descending channel. 82.900 support also tried to keep price afloat, but ultimately bowed to pressure from bears.


AUDJPY Significant Levels

Resistance Levels: 85.000, 82.900, 81.500
Support Levels: 80.760, 79.800, 78.200

The 80.760 support AUDJPY Long Term Trend: Bearish

The middle line of the descending channel is responsible for the cranking movement of the price as it slides downward. The 80.760 support already showed its tendencies to rebel against the downtrend from the 27th to the 29th of July 2021, but the bears bypassed it. By the time price retraced above it, it took advantage of being at the edge of the upper border to shift the market from the channel pathway.

A reaction from the sellers is expected at this junction and already the daily candles have fallen back to the 80.760 support. It remains to be seen if the support can be tenacious enough to at least force the market into a ranging movement. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows that AUDJPY lies in the selling zone of the chart and the action of the bulls is just a bump in the road on the way downwards. Bearish pressure therefore remains.

The 80.760 support AUDJPY Short Term Trend: Ranging

Bulls will capitalize on the shift of the price out of the descending channel to force the market into consolidation before they try to shift the market in their direction. If the 80.760 price support becomes too weak to withstand the bearish pressure, buyers will fall back to stronger weekly support at 79.800 to push their agenda.

If the market holds above 80.760, the price will likely begin consolidation with 82.900 resistance. But if bears force the market down, 79.800 will be stronger to carry out this agenda.

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