I-Euro Ibhekene Nokungaqiniseki Phakathi Nokwehla kwamandla emali nokukhathazeka ngokukhula

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IZIPHUMA

Kulokho okubonakala kuwunyaka othembisayo nge-euro, uhlobo lwemali lube nokwenyuka okumangalisayo okungu-3.5% uma kuqhathaniswa nedola, lihamba ngaphansi nje kuka-$1.10 mark. Abatshalizimali bebelokhu benethemba elikhulu njengoba bebheja ngokukhuphuka kwe-euro, beqagela ukuthi i-US Federal Reserve izomisa umjikelezo wayo wokunyusa amanani ngaphambi kokuba i-European Central Bank (ECB) iguquke.

Kodwa-ke, imininingwane yakamuva evela embikweni obanzi we-Reuters isikhanyisela ngezinselele ezingaba khona ezisazobhekana ne-eurozone. I-ECB izithola ibhekene nenkinga ebucayi: amanani entengo akhuphukayo ahambisana nomnotho obuthakathaka. Le conundrum inamalungu ama-hawkish amaningi e-ECB acabangela ukuphela kwezinyathelo zabo zokuqinisa njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphola futhi ukukhula kuqala kancane.

Isikhulu se-ECB sithi Ukunyuka Kwezinga Elingeziwe Akwenzeki

NgoLwesine olwedlule kuphela, i-ECB yenze isinqumo esiwujuqu inyusa izinga layo lenzalo elingukhiye ngamaphuzu angu-25, afinyelela eminyakeni engu-23 ephakeme engu-3.75%, emzamweni wokunciphisa ukwehla kwamandla emali okukhuphukayo, okukhuphukele ku-4.1% okwesabekayo ngoJuni, okweqa kakhulu umgomo we-ECB wokuwugcina ungaphansi kuka-2%.

Kodwa-ke, ukuphawula kukaMongameli we-ECB uChristine Lagarde kukhombisile lokho kungase kungabi yindawo enkulu ukuze kukhushulwe amanani angeziwe, njengoba ibhange liqapha ngokucophelela idatha engenayo ngaphambi kokunquma nganoma yimiphi iminyakazo yesikhathi esizayo.

Izinkulumo zikaLagarde zokuqapha zibe nomthelela osheshayo ekusebenzeni kwe-euro, okubangele ukuthi yehle ngo-0.9% uma kuqhathaniswa nedola njengoba izimakethe zibona ushintsho olungase lube khona endleleni exakile. Ngenxa yalokho, izimakethe zezimali zilungise ukuqagela kwazo, manje zilinganisela ithuba elingama-40% lokunye ukwenyuka kwezinga le-ECB lekota-point ngoSepthemba, phansi kusukela esilinganisweni sangaphambili sama-60%.

Indlela yokuqapha ye-ECB inesisekelo esihle ngempela, uma kubhekwa izivunguvungu eziningi okwamanje ezibhekene nomnotho we-eurozone.

I-Euro Eqinile Ingase Ibe Yimbi ku-ECB Njengamanje

Amandla e-euro abeka inselele eyengeziwe ku-ECB. Inkomba ye-trade-weighted, igeji ye- ama-euro inani uma liqhathaniswa nobhasikidi wezinhlobo zemali, selisondele ekuqophelweni okuphezulu. Nakuba lokhu kungase kubonakale kukuhle ngaphandle, kuthinte kabi ukuncintisana kokuthengiswa kwe-eurozone futhi kwenze ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kwashibhe, okubangele imiphumela emibi ekukhuleni kukonke kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali.

Ngenxa yalezi zenzakalo, abanye abahlaziyi manje bazwakalisa ukungabaza mayelana nokusimama komhlangano we-euro. Bakholelwa ukuthi i-ECB ingase ithathe isinyathelo ngokushesha, ikakhulukazi njengoba idatha yezomnotho ebuthaka iqala ukuba nomthelela ekuxhumaneni kwayo nezinqumo zenqubomgomo.

Okwengeza kulokhu kungaqiniseki, i-euro ingase ibhekane nenye ingcindezi uma i-US Federal Reserve ibonisa ukuthi ihlose ukuphazamisa uhlelo lwayo lokuthenga ibhondi ngo-August noma ngo-September, okungase kuqinise umnotho. amadola ukusebenza. Nakuba i-Fed isanda kuphakamisa amanani, imakethe icabanga ukuthi lokhu kungase kube umnyakazo wokugcina okwamanje.

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