USD/CHF Larger Retreat?

23 June 2021 | Updated: 23 June 2021

USD/CHF is trading in the red on the H4 chart and it could drop deeper if the US data will disappoint later today. The pair drops as the DXY has resumed its temporary decline. The US Dollar Index moves down within a down channel.

The US is to release its Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI later. Better than expected data could bring us a new upside momentum on USD/CHF. You should be careful around these publications as the volatility will be high.

Some poor US data could really force the pair to go down towards new lows. Personally, I really hope that we’ll have a good opportunity later today.

USD/CHF H4 Chart Technical Analysis!

USD/CHF failed to stabilize above the 50% retracement level signaling some selling pressure. The descending pitchfork’s median line (ml) is seen as a dynamic support. Dropping and stabilizing below it could signal a deeper drop.

I’ve drawn a Fibonacci retracement on the last swing higher. A valid breakdown below 23.6% could activate a further decline. The downside scenario could be invalidated by a bullish fly above the 50% retracement level.

Conclusion!

USD/CHF current retreat is natural after the last upwards movement. Dropping and closing under 0.9165 could signal a broader decline.

 

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USDCHF Sustains Weaker Footing Above Mid 0.8900, After a Two-Day Rally

15 June 2021 | Updated: 15 June 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – June 15

In lackluster trading during Tuesday’s European session, the USDCHF eases to 0.8965 low, down 0.10 percent intraday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback, adds to the minor losses witnessed, as USDCHF slides back to the mid-0.8900 range on Tuesday, reflecting the sluggish market action.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9129, 0.9053, 0.9000
Support Level: 0.8950, 0.8887, 0.8757
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
The USDCHF was hit by fresh selling at the start of the day at 0.9002, and it proceeded to fall due to broad-based USD weakening on risk sentiment. With no sign of recovery, the price fell to an intraday low of 0.8965. Likewise, the fall from 0.9472 is considered as the third phase of the trend from 1.0027 in the larger context (high).

That is, the greater downtrend from 1.0027 may still be ongoing. The pair is now significantly below the sliding moving average 5 and 13, confirming medium-term bearishness. If the 0.8950 low is broken, the 61.8 percent estimate of 1.0237 to 0.8757 from 0.9471 at 0.8757 will be the next target.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish
The USDCHF fell to a low of 0.8965. The current intraday bias is still bearish. In the event of a second recovery, the upside of the USDCHF could be limited by the 0.9000 support turned resistance level, signaling the start of a new downturn.

On the downside, a persistent break of the 0.8950 level might lead to the 61.8 percent estimate of 0.9902 to 0.9000 levels from 0.9200 to 0.8930 levels. Marginal weakness is expected as long as the 0.9000 level persists, but the 0.8950 level is likely to stay. Only over the 0.9000 level is there a chance of again towards the 0.9053 level.

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USDCHF Continues a Downward Trend As Risk Flows Dominate

25 May 2021 | Updated: 25 May 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – May 25

USDCHF pair is still on track for daily losses. It is currently trading at 0.8955, down 0.17 percent on the day. For the time being, the pair tends to rangebound at the moment. As risk flows dominate the markets, the US Dollar Index continues to fall. If the price falls below 0.8930, a further downside is expected.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9200, 0.9100, 0.9000
Support Levels: 0.8900, 0.8800, 0.8700
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
The pair has been consolidating near the 0.8950 marks on the daily chart, indicating the development of several bottoms. The pair is also in the same range as they were in late February. As a result, it is a critical stage for determining the pair’s price behavior.

If the price moves consistently below the session’s low of 0.8930, market participants can see substantial selling opportunities. The first stop for the bears will be at 0.8920, the low from February 9. It would pave the way for a further drop to the February 10 low of 0.8890.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish
Despite a steep drop from its recent high of 0.9000, the USDCHF is still trading above the 0.8920 psychological support mark. However, the intraday bias remains on the downside. As long as the 0.8920 support level remains, another rise is possible.

At this time, the USDCHF intraday bias is already on the downside. The current drop from 0.9000 could lead to a test of the low of 0.8871. However, a breach of the 0.9000 resistance level would signal a short-term bottom. The intraday bias will be shifted back to the upside in anticipation of a stronger rebound.

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USDCHF Trades Beneath 0.9000 Level, Risk Aversion Boosts Franc

18 May 2021 | Updated: 18 May 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – May 18

Early in the European session, the USDCHF pair slips beneath 0.8998 to multi-month lows, with sellers now looking to expand the downward trend below the 0.8950 low level. The decline was fueled solely by sustained US dollar sellers, as Investors’ risk aversion boosts demand for safe-haven Franc.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9304, 0.9160, 0.9045
Support Levels: 0.8950, 0.8887, 0.8757
USDCHF Long term Trend: Bearish
The USDCHF was hit by fresh selling at the start of the day at 0.9034, and it proceeded to fall due to broad-based USD weakness on risk sentiment to an intraday low of 0.8965 at the time of this post. The present bias stays on the downside towards breaching the horizontal support at $0.8950.

In the event of a second rebound, the upside of the USDCHF may be limited by the 0.8998 support turned resistance level, signaling the start of a new decline. In any case, a break of 0.9000 marks is required to signal medium-term bottoming. Otherwise, the trend may stay bearish in case of a rebound.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish
The USDCHF is now trapped beneath a temporary peak of 0.9034 and continues to fall. The initial intraday sentiment is bearish. If there is another turnaround, the 0.8998 former support level, which has now turned into a resistance level, signaling the start of a new decline, should limit upside potential.

On the downside, if the 0.8950 level is breached, the 61.8 percent projection of 0.9164 to 0.8998 levels from 0.9093 at 0.8950 levels could be targeted next. Marginal weakness is expected as long as the 0.8998 level persists, but the 0.8950 level is likely to hold. Just above the 0.8998 level is there a chance of a move towards the 0.9045 level.

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USDCHF Buyers Smash Through Daily Resistance of 0.9150 on Wide Range Strengthening of US Dollar

4 May 2021 | Updated: 4 May 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – May 4

During the European session, the USDCHF brings the buyers’ interest to the test, with the possibility of a recovery from the downside pressure to crack the sellers’ grasp. As technicals reveal a dominant selling side, buyers smashed through the barrier at 0.9150. The dollar is being boosted by expectations of stronger economic growth in the United States.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9472, 0.9300, 0.9160
Support Levels: 0.9080, 0.9045, 0.8998
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
The US dollar remains bullish against the Swiss franc at the beginning of the week, as the pair’s intra-day correction finds buyers at 0.9110 level, up from 0.9104. In a broader sense, the drop from 0.9472 medium-term high is considered the 2nd pattern period since the plunge from a recent high of 0.9901.

For the time being, there is no sign that the range will be completed. In continuation, the next goal will be a 138.2 percent projection from 0.9901 to 0.8757 from 0.9472 at 0.9080 levels. A successful break of the 0.9200 resistance level, however, will be an early sign of trend reversal and a change of focus back to the 0.9300 key resistance level for confirmation.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish
The short-term risk in the USDCHF market appears to be seeking to retain its downside in the 4-hour time frame, in addition, trend signals remain mixed for now, indicating that any price strength may be transitory.

Overall, the outlook for USDCHF remains unchanged, and the intraday bias is initially neutral. The trading range starting at 0.9472 is widening. In the event of a steeper fall, the 38.2 percent retracement of 0.9080 to 0.9160 levels at 0.9127 could absorb the downside step and usher in a stronger recovery.

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USDCHF Downward Trend Continues Owing to Ongoing USD Selling Bias

20 April 2021 | Updated: 20 April 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – April 20

During the first half of the European session on Wednesday, the USDCHF pair continued its downward trend, falling to seven-week lows near 0.9135 level. In the wake of USD weakness, the pair appears to be having trouble staging a meaningful rebound. As of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.9160 level, unchanged on the day.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9472, 0.9375, 0.9213
Support Levels: 0.9129, 0.8998, 0.8757
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
USDCHF is currently trading below its 5 and 13 moving average, suggesting a downward trend. Markets may suggest that price would test a new low at 0.9093 if the ascending trendline is breached. A turnaround from the downtrend channel’s upper boundary would be another warning in favor of the downtrend’s continuation.

At the present moment, the failure of the 61.8 percent pullback of 0.9901 to 0.8757 at 0.9472 suggests that the bounce from 0.8757 was most likely just a corrective step. That is, the larger downturn from 1.0237 could still be ongoing. Traders’ eyes will be on the downside momentum of the fall from 0.9472 to see if the 0.8757 low can be broken.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish
The USDCHF is still stuck in a range that started at a temporary high of 0.9472. The intraday sentiment is initially bearish. If there is another rebound, upside capacity should be restricted by the 0.9213 former support level, which has now turned into a resistance level, signaling the start of a new decline.

A breakout of 0.9129 low, on the other hand, could result in a 61.8 percent projection from 0.9902 to 0.8998 from 0.9304 at 0.8757 next. The pair struggled to profit from the previous session’s rebound attempts, and a strong break below 0.9150 does not prevent the 0.9100 level from being tested.

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USDCHF Bounces off Lows Around 0.9200 Regions Amid US Inflation Figures

13 April 2021 | Updated: 13 April 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – April 13

After plunging for 5 consecutive days, the USDCHF pair bounces off lows around 0.9200 early on Tuesday’s European/American session. The pair’s rebound is up around 0.9259 intraday high and at the time of this post was hovering around the 0.9213 level. The US dollar is in a cautious mode as traders react to inflation data which would dictate the next movement.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9472, 0.9375, 0.9300
Support Levels: 0.9213, 0.9150, 0.9093
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
The US dollar’s attempt to strengthen against the Swiss franc has gained traction at the recent low of 0.9213 level, with the pair gaining almost 31 pips after finding support around the 0.9200 prior days low level. The USDCHF pair needs to break the 0.9300 resistance level to balance the overall forecast. Medium to long term analysis continues to suggest that USDCHF downside bias is over around the ascending trendline support and its rebound will continue higher.

In a broader context, the decline from 1.0231 is seen as the concluding phase of the trend from 1.0342 (high). There are no clear signs of confinement. The next target is 138.2% forecast from 1.0342 to 0.9187 from 1.0231 at 0.9300. In such a scenario, a break of the 0.9304 resistance level is required to signal a mid-term session.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Ranging
With slight resistance at 0.9300 intact, the correction from 0.9472 could continue lower. However, the 38.2 percent retracement of 0.8756 to 0.9472 at 0.9213 should limit the downside and allow for recovery. On the upside, a break above 0.9300 would shift the bias to the upside, allowing for a return to the 0.9472 high.

However, a sustained break of 0.9213 would result in a more significant drop to the 61.8 percent retracement level of 0.9045. If the pair manages to break resistance levels and surge higher, it would immediately face the resistance of the horizontal line at 0.9375 level.

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USDCHF Selloff Halts Beyond Mid 0.9300 on Renewed USD Strength

6 April 2021 | Updated: 6 April 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – April 6

The USDCHF pair eases from the prior day’s high of 0.9438 while taking downside pressure to fresh lows, the selloff halts beyond the mid 0.9300 level during Tuesday’s European session. Renewed USD strength and mixed reports about US stimulus give investors a pause after sending US stocks to record highs.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9901, 0.9547, 0.9472
Support Levels: 0.9354, 0.9304, 0.9220
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
USDCHF capitalized on its bounce at lows and rally to trade positively to intraday highs at 0.9388. Meanwhile, in a broader context, the fall from 1.0237 should have ended at 0.8756, which is an upbeat daily position. The current rally from 0.8756 should first reach the 0.9901 resistance.

There are no clear signs of withdrawal at this time. A break in this zone in the medium term will lead to the target at 1.0237 / 0342. Now this will remain the preferred option as long as the resistance at 0.9045 turns into support. Despite the rally, the overall daily trend remains in range after the initial bounce.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Ranging
USDCHF’s plunge to fresh lows of 0.9354 level in the prior day and its rebound today suggests the uptrend may continue despite the minor correction. The intraday bias stays on the upside. And yet subsequent aim is 61.8% forecast of 0.9901 to 0.8998 from 0.9354 at 0.8756 levels.

Any such breach lower may pave the path to a long-term forecast level at 0.8639 level. On the upside, a breach of 0.9472 near-term resistance is required to indicate short-term bottoming. Yet still, the near-term trend stays in a range despite the anticipated recovery.

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USDCHF Bulls Tighten Grip Towards Mid 0.9400 Level as US Dollar Index Rally to Fresh Highs

30 March 2021 | Updated: 30 March 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – March 30

The USDCHF upside move regained traction after a brief pause around 0.9380 level during Tuesday European session. The pair’s buyers are building on fresh momentum beyond the mid 0.9400 marks. The US dollar pushes higher as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies to fresh highs in the area above the 93.00 hurdles.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9608, 0.9547, 0.9457
Support Levels: 0.9375, 0.9220, 0.9150
USDCHF Long term Trend: Bullish
As observed on the daily, USDCHF is trading bullish. The pair’s rallies are bought into as anticipated. Beyond the mid 0.9400 level, traders may see a continuation towards 0.9500 level and also beyond 0.9547 towards 0.9600 levels. As for the near future, the exchange rate is likely to continue to edge higher.

Bullish traders could target the resistance level at 0.9547 during the present trading session. While the momentum is steady, a likely retracement to the lift-off zone of 0.9400 may occur but in rather smaller rallies. The latest breakout of the level at 0.9400 is a confirmation that buyers have regained control and the price could be on its way to 0.9500 and beyond.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bullish
The intraday bias in USDCHF stays at the upside for further a rally past the 0.9375 support zone. The downside may be contained well above the 0.9220 support level to usher in a resumption of the upside rally. Considering the bullish moving average of 5, the latest run will eye the 0.9500 thresholds.

On the upside, the breach of 0.9457 level may increase the advance from 0.8870 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8870 levels at 0.9457 level. A sustained breach there may approach the 0.9901 resistance level next. However, the quote’s further upside will be challenged by the local barriers at the upside before a meaningful advancement.

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USDCHF Gathers Strength To Trade Past 0.9300 Level Amid Firmer US Stocks

23 March 2021 | Updated: 23 March 2021

USDCHF Price Analysis – March 23

The USDCHF pair found new buyers at the start of Wednesday’s European session with renewed strength to trade past 0.9300 level. The momentum indicators are painting an optimistic picture for the pair in the near term. US stocks turn firmer as the recent fears of high inflation in the United States eased.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9547, 0.9457, 0.9375
Support Levels: 0.9220, 0.9150, 0.9093
USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging
At present, the USDCHF will contend with the upside barrier at 0.9300 level which has stayed as resistance a few times. If the bulls claim that number, the way will open towards the swing high of 0.9375 level. Higher, the rally is expected to take a breather around 0.9400 round figure.

On the downside, the ascending trendline puts a stop at 0.9220 level and the surface of the lower channel may attempt to balance any downside correction. However as USDCHF continues to strengthen its position amid the bullish rebound towards 0.9300, a downside correction may come into play in subsequent sessions.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Ranging
From the 4-hour time frame perspective, the short-term risk seems to seek to maintain its upside in the USDCHF market, but trend signals remain mixed for now, suggesting that any strength in the price could be transitory.

Overall, the outlook in USDCHF stays unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral initially. The range trading from 0.9375 level is expanding. In the scenario of a steeper decline, the anticipation of a downside move may be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8870 to 0.9375 levels at 0.9150 to usher in an increased rebound.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

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