Category: crude oil

USOIL (WTI) Is in a Downtrend, Targets Level $55.52

USOIL (WTI) Is in a Downtrend, Targets Level $55.52

Key Resistance Levels: $66.00, $70.00, $74.00
Key Support Levels: $48.00,$44.00,$40.00

USOIL (WTI) Long-term Trend: Bearish
USOIL is in a downward move after the rejection from $68 high. The price has fallen to the low of $58.25. The price has broken the 21-day SMA and it is approaching the 50-day SMA. The selling pressure will persist if price breaks below the SMAs.

USOIL – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
USOIL (WTI) is at level 43 of Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that price is in the downtrend zone and it is below the centerline 50. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping northward indicating the uptrend.

USOIL (WTI) Medium-term bias: Bearish
On the 4 hour chart, the USOIL is in a downward move. On March 10 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the USOIL will fall to level 2.618 Fibonacci extensions or the low of $55.52.

USOIL – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
WTI Crude oil has fallen below the 30% range of the daily stochastic. The crude oil is in a bearish momentum. The SMAs are sloping downward indicating the downtrend.


General Outlook for USOIL (WTI)
USOIL (WTI) is in a downward move. WTI crude oil has been trading in the overbought region. The price has fallen to the low of $58. The USOIL is now consolidating above the $58 support. The selling pressure will resume if the support is breached.


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Author: Azeez Mustapha

Last Updated: March 19th, 2021

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Crude Oil: WTI Trades Underneath Bearish Pressure After Plunging Beneath the $63.50 Level

Crude Oil: WTI Trades Underneath Bearish Pressure After Plunging Beneath the $63.50 Level

USDWTI Price Analysis – February 26

At the time of writing, WTI remains on the back foot trading at $62.53 after sellers’ pressure pushed the USDWTI pair to a $61.82 daily low. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit its highest level in more than a year at $63.79 during the prior session, however, staged a rebound on Friday.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: $70.10, $67.52, $63.73
Support Levels: $60.72, $57.40, $53.90
USDWTI Long term Trend: Bullish
From a technical perspective, USDWTI reflects a clear bullish market on the daily chart. A step above the $63.79 barrier could trigger the next upside breakout. However, the RSI is on a corrective journey before its next leg up. A pullback from the weekly top at $63.79 beneath the MA 5 and 13 threshold may generate additional buying.

The following pullback, however, may not last long as buyers may buy the dip at the $60.72 level. Hence, WTI sellers should keep their eyes on the MA 13 support line, at $60.50 during further declines. However, any further weakness will be probed by the three-week-old horizontal support near the $57.40 level.
USDWTI Short term Trend: Ranging
WTI price action is currently trading around $63.18 and $61.78 intraday levels beyond the near-term lower end of the channel range at the $60.72 level. With the upward level of resistance shown at $63.79 in the near term, analysts expect prices to trade within that range.

On the upside, a break beyond the $63.79 level would see oil prices challenging the $67.52 psychological level of resistance. Prices are somewhat likely to stay subdued in the short term and risk selling pressure, particularly with economic recovery concerns now lingering.

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Author : Azeez Mustapha

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Author: Azeez Mustapha

Last Updated: February 26th, 2021

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Azeez Mustapha is an experienced author, trader, markets analyst, signals strategist, and funds-manager.

USOIL (WTI) Retraces to $59, Resumes Upward Move

USOIL (WTI) Retraces to $59, Resumes Upward Move

Resistance Level: $64, $65, $66
Support Level: $58, $57, $56

USOIL (WTI) Long-term Trend: Bullish
USOIL has been in an upward movement since November 2020. WTI crude oil has risen from $33.67 to $60.12 high. The RSI has indicated that the crude oil price has reached the overbought region of the market. In this case, sellers may emerge to push prices down. The market is presently falling but there is the appearance of bullish candlesticks. This will signal the resumption of the uptrend.

USOIL – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the previous trend. Presently, the share is at level 70 of the Relative Strength Index. It indicates that the USOIL is in the uptrend zone and it is capable of resuming upward movement.

USOIL (WTI)) Medium-term Trend: Bullish
On the 4-hour chart, the price is in an upward move. On the February 15 uptrend, a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that the market will fall to level 1.272 Fibonacci extension and reverse. That is the high of $61.89. The price will reverse to 78.6% where it originated. The price action has confirmed these levels.

USOIL – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
USOIL is above the 20%range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market is in a bullish momentum. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend.

General Outlook for USOIL (WTI)
WTI crude oil is in an uptrend. After the recent retracement, the USOIL has resumed a fresh uptrend. If the market rises and breaks above the previous high of $62, the uptrend will continue.


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Author : Azeez Mustapha

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Author: Azeez Mustapha

Last Updated: February 19th, 2021

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Azeez Mustapha is an experienced author, trader, markets analyst, signals strategist, and funds-manager.

Crude Oil Demand & Supply Imbalance Caps Upside Advance

Crude Oil Demand & Supply Imbalance Caps Upside Advance

Crude oil prices are narrowly consolidating around an 11-month high. After bouncing about 20% from the March low, upward momentum appears to be weakening. Traders are increasingly worried about the outlook for demand, which could be hurt by a resurgence of coronavirus cases in China. Sentiment aside, the short-term supply & demand forecast suggests that the risk is biased towards the downside.

A resurgence of coronavirus cases in China in the weeks leading up to the Lunar New Year festival could weaken demand from the world’s second-largest oil consumer. The data suggests that travel to and from Chinese cities has become moderate since early December, about -6% below pre-pandemic levels.

The Chinese government reported 793 new cases last week, up from less than 300 two weeks ago. While Chinese data is always prone to problems with accuracy and transparency, this is the highest number in 10 months. Isolation measures escalated with 11 million people in Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital in northern Hebei.

Meanwhile, more than 5 million people are being detained in Suihua in northern Heilongjiang province. Stricter isolation measures could reduce traffic and economic activity, thereby weakening demand for crude oil and petroleum products.
Crude Oil Price Softens As Bears and Bulls Tussle
Crude oil prices have softened as the dollar strengthened while the latest restrictive measures in China will wreak havoc on the Lunar New Year journey. Oil demand in China is at the core of the current recovery in prices, so any deeper restrictions should put some pressure on the sale of Brent and WTI crude.

OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo’s optimistic comments at the Iranian IPEC conference had little effect on oil prices. Barkindo reminded energy traders that the worst for the global oil market is over and that investment in oil has fallen 30% in 2020. The most impressive comment he made was that the rate of virus spread will continue to slow recovery. Barkindo stuck to the scenario and did not offer any new insights into the demand outlook.

A significant development in the energy sector was the decision by S&P Global Ratings to put under negative scrutiny the majority of major oil companies such as Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell. Rating agencies are always late and this warning seems long overdue.

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Last Updated: January 26th, 2021

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Azeez Mustapha is an experienced author, trader, markets analyst, signals strategist, and funds-manager.

Brent breaks the Pandemic gap fill level

Brent breaks the Pandemic gap fill level

In hopes of an increase of demand of petroleum based products due to the news of the Coronavirus vaccines being over 90% effective, a massive increase in air travel, the easing of lockdowns measures and the normal winter rally, crude oil futures (WTI and Brent) have rallied above massive levels.

Brent in particular has broken with the 45.35 level which is the gap fill from the pandemic crash that saw prices in crude futures (WTI) go negative. This level is important because not only it was a psychological resistance but also bulls were not able to break it even with the new measures in output placed by the OPEC to support oil prices.

the next big level is the 56 mark which also the calculated targets of the flag breakout and the retest of the overall structure.

 

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Author : Orlando Gutierrez