USDMXN AT KEY LEVEL

18 October 2021 | Updated: 18 October 2021

Key Resistance: 20.50 – 20.60
Key Support: 20.31

Last Friday, late in NY trading the MXN started to rally hard against the USD from the the highs of the day. During that rally the USDMXN crashed 1.35% breaking with August highs in the process.

August highs are the previous broken highs after the big rally from September lows. This move is also a 61.8% pullback from last week’s range.

The MXN has pulled back to retest October 7th lows against the USD on what seems a perfect dip buy opportunity. Remember that I’m talking about the MXN here, so to dip buy this possible bullish continuation we need to sell the USDMXN which is why I’ve placed those sell stops below the previous immediate low.

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USDMXN Double top set to breakout

30 August 2021 | Updated: 30 August 2021

Key Resistance: 20.25
Key Support: 20.17 – 20.15

The USDMXN rejected last week’s highs on Friday printing a lower high before crashing to last week’s lows on Powell’s very Dovish speech at the end of the Jackson Hole symposium.

This created a big double top with the neck line right at last week’s lows. This week’s open in Sunday and price action until now is giving us an insane R on a short setup with high probability should this scenario play out.

Should price break with last week lows it would also be breaking with the reversal pattern (double top) we pointed out earlier AND the short-mid term bullish structure.

This breakout will be in play ONLY if our bearish continuation scenario on the USD plays out.

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USDMXN bullish continuation in play!!

24 August 2021 | Updated: 24 August 2021

Key Support: 22.28
Key Resistance: 20.44

The USDMXN has been in a very strong bullish move since the beginning of this trading week (up 3% from low to high) without any deep pullbacks. Yesterday we tried a bullish continuation that stopped us out at a loss but the setup presented itself again and like I said on yesterday’s live show, I would take this setup over and over in a vacuum because it’s mathematically very profitable.

Today we got the same setup but with a much better R and we took it at the break of today’s lows targeting this week’s highs where we saw sellers jump in aggressively yesterday.

this play is a rejections of yesterday’s lows + a break of today’s highs on high bullish volume / momentum.

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USDMXN shorts on a weekly pivot rejection

13 August 2021 | Updated: 13 August 2021

Key resistance: 20.00
Key Support: 19.88 – 19.80

The USDMXN has been trading sideways in a very choppy range (on the daily and higher TFs) for about 6 weeks but since Tuesday, we have seen a very structured bearish move (-1.52% from high to low).
I’ve been hunting these shorts since yesterday on a retest of the 20.00 level. This level, historically, has been key when price trades around it, and the breakout that we saw on Wednesday was extremely strong. My rationale here is to short on a pullback to this exact level.

After the last hourly candle closed very bearish above the daily lows and having rejected the weekly pivot and the previous broken level (20.00) I decided to put a sell stop below the daily lows to get triggered on further bearishness since the highest probability trade in this market today is to the downside. More so with the US Dollar showing weakness in early European trade.

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USDMXN bouncing from Historic key level

13 April 2021 | Updated: 13 April 2021

Key Support: 20.00
Key Resistance: 20.55 – 20.90 -21.60

The USDMXN has been in a very strong bearish move for more than a month since it peaked back in March 8th. That´s a -7.35% move. This level is also the 0.764 pullback of the last long term bullish move.

Also, this last 5-week bearish move is perfectly structured inside of a mid term falling wedge.

Since we are counter trend trading we need for price to brake with the immediate bearish structure by breaking with the week´s highs and trading above the weekly pivot. By doing so the falling wedge would also brake

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USDMXN retests August 2019 highs

8 April 2021 | Updated: 8 April 2021

Key Support: 20.10
Key Resistance: 20.45 – 20.60 – 20.90

The USDMXN has dropped 4% in the past 3 weeks and 6.92% since its March 2021 highs.

In the short term price has been dipping inside a very structured bearish move and now we are retesting the August 2019 highs. Back in August 2019 this level was a massive resistance and when it hit price dropped 8.35%.

Back in March 2020 when price finally broke with this resistance level we saw a massive bullish move of +39.30% from low to high.

this level is where we will see big buyer jump in. In order to get triggered we need a break of the current bearish structure and the DXY to start rallying from the 92.20 level retest.

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USDMXN bouncing from key structure

9 March 2021 | Updated: 9 March 2021

Key Support: 21.20
key Resistance: 21.40 -21.50 – 21.65

Mid Term View
After bottoming in January around 19.50 the USDMXN has rallied 10.60% from low to highs and is now trying to break a massive zone of resistance.

15M Chart Analysis
After topping around the 21.60 level the USDMXN has pulled back to a previous resistance turned support (21.20) and it´s retesting the bullish structure it´s trading in.

This is a high probability trade because of technicals but also because the US Dollar is currently in a bullish move.

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USD/MXN bounces from weekly pivot

1 March 2021 | Updated: 1 March 2021

Key support: 20.70
Key Resistance: 20.85 – 21.00

Long Term View
The USD/MXN has been on a +7.70% bullish move from low to highs since the lows in late January 2021. We have been trading the upside the past couple of months and our bias remains very bullish as long as price keeps trading inside the long term bullish structure.

1H chart Analysis
The USD/MXN opened lower but quickly recover to trade above the weekly pivot and the very important 20.70 level.

It boke with a falling wedge , which is in this case a reversal pattern but we needed price to break the previous lows. This is why we used a buy stop above the 20.80 level

The 21.00 level is a massive area of resistance so it´s crucial to take profits here.

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USDMXN holds key base

18 February 2021 | Updated: 18 February 2021

Key Support: 20.15
Key Resistance: 20.45

Mid-Term View
The USDMXN has rallied from the lows of a long term range around the 90.19 to 20.00 levels inside a very structured move.

Short-Term Readings

After missing the first impulse at the bottom of the move I´ve been watching this pair the entire week and today it created a perfect base at the retest of the previous broken level and 50% pullback of the first bullish impulse.

The continuation pattern is very clear here and should the bullish momentum continue at the break of the pattern price could reach the highs of the range around the 20.45

 

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USDMXN BREAKS MASSIVE BULLISH STRUCTURE

8 February 2021 | Updated: 8 February 2021

The UM finished last week very bearish breaking with a mid term bullish structure after rejecting the top of a range that has capped the MXN going lower against the USD.

We´re looking to short this pair at the break of Friday´s lows / Last week´s lows with a tight stop above today´s highs.

Think about taking profits on the next key level around the 19.60 and possible runners to the calculated targets (1.618 retracement of the last bullish wave) around the 19.80

 

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