GBP/CHF Price Analysis — February 8

GBP/CHF Price Analysis — February 8

The GBP/CHF traded on a sideways bias in the early European session on Monday, despite heavy demand for the Pound over the past few days.

The British Pound is currently finding strong support from the recent Bank of England statement. On Thursday, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it would leave its interest rates unchanged at 0.10% in its January policy meeting and left its Asset Purchase Facility steady at £895 billion. This development boosted investor sentiment around the currency, causing it to soar against other large currencies.

However, the central bank decreased its forecast for growth in 2021 to 5% from its November forecast of 7.25% but boosted its expectations for 2022 to 7.25% from 6.25%.

Meanwhile, the country has shown astute efficiency in its COVID-19 vaccination campaign, as the nation expects to have its entire population vaccinated by the end of June and have its vulnerable groups vaccinated before the end of February.

Moving on, Friday’s GDP figures are expected to show that the UK economy expanded in the fourth quarter, albeit at a slower rate than the previous quarter when the economy was reopening. That said, economists are expecting a 0.5% (QoQ) growth this Friday. However, this was before widespread lockdown measures across the region, putting this forecast on shaky grounds.

GBPCHF – 4-Hour Chart

GBP/CHF Value Forecast — February 8

GBP/CHF Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 1.2400, 1.2500, and 1.2582

Demand Levels: 1.2295, 1.2250, and 1.2205

The GBP/CHF pair began this week on a sideways momentum, following a recent bull run that stopped a few points away from our target resistance level at 1.2400. That said, we expect an additional retrace to the 1.2330-20 area before this pair facilitates another bounce to the 1.2400 resistance and higher over the coming hours and days.

On the flip side, a fall from its current price level (1.2350) could be strongly repelled by the ascending trendline around the 1.2250 support level.

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GBP/CHF Price Analysis — February 1

GBP/CHF Price Analysis — February 1

GBP/CHF resumed its bullish momentum in the early European session, as the GBP picks up demand and market mood soars. Meanwhile, the pound is likely to gain more traction as the European Union holds off from putting the UK on the export restriction list.

President of the EU Ursula Von Der Leyen’s recent comment about an additional 900,000 Covid vaccines for the bloc appears to be the trigger for Brussels’ decision to keep the UK off its export restriction list.

Meanwhile, the market risk got bolstered by the UK’s 600,000 vaccinations a day program and the easing number of COVID-19 infections in Britain. Meanwhile, the market mood got an additional boost following the optimism surrounding British Trade Secretary Liz Truss’s ability to secure a decent trade deal from the US.

Furthermore, the Financial Times recently mentioned that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are preparing for an anticipated recovery, with a “pre-Budget recovery plan,” which pumped market risk mood further.

However, chatter on social media about Silver’s sudden rally and possible limitations on market and the Irish Taoiseach’s move to dampen the EU-Uk vaccine row could frustrate market risk mood. Also, the civil unrest across Brussels, Budapest, and Vienna could limit the profit potential of the GBP a bit.

GBP/CHF – 4-Hour Chart

GBP/CHF Value Forecast — February 1

GBP/CHF Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 1.2300, 1.2345, and 1.2400

Demand Levels: 1.2250, 1.2205, and 1.2154

The GBP/CHF resumed its bullish momentum from last week, as the pair finally snapped the one-year-strong 1.2250 resistance (now support) a few hours ago. This rally could continue to the 1.2400 psychological level in the coming days if the market maintains its current risk mood.

That said, we expect a mild correction to the 1.2250 support level in the coming hours, followed by a bullish continuation in the coming days.

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GBP/CHF Price Analysis — January 25

GBP/CHF Price Analysis — January 25

The GBP/CHF traded on a sideways momentum in the mid-European session on Monday and was last spotted trading at 1.2128, as the pound came under renewed pressure.

One of the major factors weighing the pound down is the UK’s delay in distributing the second jab of the COVID-19 vaccine. The world’s leading nation in mass vaccination, Israel, has asserted that a high level of immunity against the deadly virus can only be achieved through booster jabs. That said, unless the UK government ramps up its jab distribution, the GBP will come under additional pressure.

A second reason for the weakness in the GBP is from the renewed Brexit friction springing up in recent days. Officials at the Department for International Trade have begun advising exporters to “set up shop” in Europe to avoid border closure-related issues.

Another factor frustrating demand for the pound comes as Scotland is clamoring for another independence referendum. Fresh support for a poll and leaving has risen with Brexit, putting Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a tough spot once again.

These factors, coupled with the growing worries over the British variant of the coronavirus, could put the GBP on the backfoot and drive demand for the Swiss franc in the coming days.

GBPCHF – 4-Hour Chart

GBP/CHF Value Forecast — January 25

GBP/CHF Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 1.2154, 1.2205, and 1.2250

Demand Levels: 1.2095, 1.2050, and 1.2000

The GBP/CHF has been trading in a sideways pattern since the open of the market in the Asian session between 1.2146 and 1.2116. That said, a break above the 1.2154 resistance could confirm a bullish momentum, causing the price to climb higher. However, this bullish momentum—if it gets triggered in the coming hours—will be heavily resisted by the 1.2205 resistance and could trigger a sustained decline to the 1.2100 (and lower) for the pair.

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GBP/CHF Price Analysis — January 18

GBP/CHF Price Analysis — January 18

Despite widespread expectations that the Coronavirus crisis in the UK will be depleted soon, the British Pound against the Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) continues to slide. As expected, the prevailing risk-off mood is benefiting the safe-haven CHF against other currencies.

Meanwhile, Britain has seen its coronavirus case-count maintain an upward trajectory since December, despite three national lockdowns. However, the region’s infection rate saw a significant slowdown last week, although it failed to provide any support for the GBP.

Nonetheless, there’re expectations that the condition of the Pound will improve soon. Many analysts predict that the GBP/CHF will recover gradually as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine programs take on new leaps.

The vaccination campaign in the UK is getting a lift, as citizens over 70 have been asked to come in for their shots. Britain has the highest percentage of vaccination in the Western world, as 6% of its total population have been vaccinated. Another bolstering factor for the GBP is the improving situation of COVID-19 infections in the region, showing that the lockdown measures have effectively tackled the highly-contagious variant.

Risk appetite is expected to get a bump in the coming days, and with it comes a bullish recovery in the GBP/CHF.

GBPCHF – Hourly Chart

GBP/CHF Value Forecast — January 18

GBP/CHF Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 1.2094, 1.2154, and 1.2205

Demand Levels: 1.2049, 1.2000, and 1.1943

The GBP/CHF saw its ascent last week cut short by the 1.2154 resistance, which triggered a selloff for the pair. However, the selloff got caught by the 1.2094 support (now resistance), where the GBP/CHF attempted a rebound. Needless to say, the attempt was futile and triggered a fresh selloff for the FX pair towards the 1.2049 support—where the price is hovering over at press time.

Considering the absence of risk-boosting factors in the meantime, the GBP/CHF will likely continue on its downwards journey towards the 1.2000 psychological support and lower.

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GBP/CHF Price Analysis — January 11

GBP/CHF Price Analysis — January 11

GBP/CHF traded on a sideways momentum in the mid-European session, as the Coronavirus situation in the UK worsens and the prevailing risk sentiment undermines demand for the CHF. The ramping up of the vaccine campaign in Britain and additional stimulus measures could cause the Pound to slide even further.

Meanwhile, support for the GBP could come from the government, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is scheduled to speak in parliament later today to talk about the current state of the economy and the prospect of more fiscal relief.

Meanwhile, analysts have pointed out the UK government’s efforts to tackle the virus by setting up special immunization centers and increasing vaccine distribution. Britain has approved the use of three vaccines, including those from Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and homegrown AstraZeneca, across the region.

So far, the UK has administered vaccines to only 2% of the population, despite being one of the first to begin mass vaccination in the Western world. Although the UK has vaccinated more citizens compared to some European countries, there is still a need for the government to amp up vaccination considering the number of vaccines at hand and the mounting pressure on hospitals in the region.

In other news, the recent breakdown in the global risk sentiment could thwart demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc and prevent a dip in the GBP/CHF.

GBPCHF – 4-Hour Chart

GBP/CHF Value Forecast — January 11

GBP/CHF Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 1.2100, 1.2154, and 1.2250

Demand Levels: 1.1914, 1.1800, and 1.1735

The GBP/CHF continued to trade on a sideways momentum into the new week, as the 1.1914 support stays unbroken. The pair has been trading on this momentum since the beginning of the year.

That said, we expect a steady climb to the 1.2100 in the coming days, where buyers will likely feel incentivized to take the price higher. Regardless, a fall beneath the 1.1914 support seems very unlikely at this point.

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