EUR/GBP Remains Rangebound Ahead of Event-Filled Week

EUR/GBP Remains Rangebound Ahead of Event-Filled Week

The EUR/GBP maintained a sideways bias into today’s trading session despite several supporting fundamental factors on both sides.

The UK press announced over the weekend that the UK might be able to offer every adult in the country the first vaccination by June 10, several weeks earlier than the government’s target.

Meanwhile, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, made an unexpected speech close to the BoE rate decision. The governor had an upbeat tone as regards the prospects for the UK economy and downplayed worries that inflation could rise beyond the bank’s 2% cap.

In other news, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recently released weekly asset purchase data illustrated that, net-net, the bank’s assets purchases increased to €14 billion from €12 billion from last week.

The ECB noted last week that it would increase the pace of its purchases drastically over the coming quarter, with some economic commentators suggesting that the monthly purchases could spike to €100 billion from €60 billion in February.

EURGBP – 4-Hour Chart

EUR/GBP Traders to Take Market Clues from Thursday’s Events
Today’s purchase numbers were disappointingly low, to say the least. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned about the possibility of such an outcome in last week’s press conference.

That said, the focus has shifted to next week’s data, as market participants anticipate a net purchase of at least €20 billion.

Moving on, this week’s EUR price dynamics will likely get influenced by the barrage of comments from several key ECB officials on Thursday, while GBP traders will take clues from the BoE’s rate decision on Thursday as well.

 

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EURGBP Double Bottoms

EURGBP Double Bottoms

Key Support: 0.8555
Key Resistance: 0.8600 – 0.8675

Long Term View
The EURGBP has been in a really strong bearish market since it broke with the 0.8870 level of support. This level held as support for 250 days.

Rigot now we are retesting the next key level at the 0.8550

2H Chart Analysis
Last Wednesday bears took price down to retest this level after being in control for over a month on a 380 pip bearish ride from the 0.8850  breakout.

Here´s where buyers were placed and price rallied 190 pips. It then  came down to retest it again right before a pop of about 20 pips. This double bottom is our buy opportunity with good risk t reward.

We are seeing also strong bullish divergence printed.

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The Pound is down against all majors

The Pound is down against all majors

Key support: 0.8593
Key Resistance: 0.8720 – 0.8535

Long Term View
Since the highs in December the Pound has rallied 7.5% against the Euro (-7.50% move in the EUR/GBP) and last week it rejected the 0.8550 level which is a massive area of resistance turned support from May 2020.

1H Chart Analysis
Price is trading inside of a falling wedge below the weekly pivot and this 1H candle has engulfed the last 6 1H candles in a very bullish move breaking with the wedge.

The Pound is falling against all major currencies (GBP/USD -0.55%). This dip in the Pound has created a bullish move in the EUR/GBP for a possible retest of the weekly highs.

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EURGBP bounces from multi year lows

EURGBP bounces from multi year lows

Key Support: 0.8549
Key Resistance: 0.8640

Long Term View
The EURGBP has moved down 8.25% from the September 9th 2020 highs ia a very choppy way. This market lacks structure but key levels are very well respected.

1H Chart Analysis
The EUR/GBP rejected a multiyear level of support (0.8550) which gave us a buy setup on high probability trade.
There were talks about lifting restriction in the U.K. earlier today which pushed the Pound up and in the case of the EUR/GBP this bullish momentum in the Pound push this pair down almost 3/4 of a percent! BIG move earlier today.

This move clearly rejected our key level around the 0.8550 and we decided to jump in long at the first pullback.

We are still inside of a very strong mid term bearish structure but even high impact data appreciating the GBP is not strong enough to break this multi year level.

We are long and managing our buy position very aggressively because we are trading a mean reversal on a market that clearly bears have under control.

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