The AUD/NZD traded on a sideways momentum in the mid-European session, amid renewed market risk appetite.
This year, the Aussie and the Kiwi are expected to perform positively, as they would be bolstered by several factors, mostly hinging on the Coronavirus. Both Australia and New Zealand have shown efficiency in nipping the spread of the virus in the bud through adequate contact-tracing methods.
Optimism that the economy could recover from the COVID-19-induced financial crisis is in full swing, considering a successful rollout of vaccines. Also, additional fiscal stimulus from governments will provide further support for the currencies.
Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to see a modest bounce in the coming months, which has raised the demand for Australian commodities like iron ore. This fundamental factor is one of the reasons why the AUD is expected to trade strongly against the NZD in the coming days and 2021 as a whole. That said, the prospects for the Aussie against other forex pairs in 2021 trumps that of the Kiwi.
The main concern for both economies in 2021 is the labor market. At New Zealand’s end, the outlook is very uncertain. According to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), “closed borders mean a smaller economy and recessionary impacts of this are unavoidable.” Negative rates for New Zealand in March could be actualized if the economy fails to maintain a steady recovery.
AUDNZD – 4-Hour Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — January 4
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Sideways
Supply Levels:1.0700, 1.0750, and 1.0800
Demand Levels: 1.0670, 1.0600, and 1.0550
The AUD/NZD is currently trading in a sideways momentum near the 1.0700 psychological resistance. That said, we expect to see a bounce off the 1.0678 area (50 SMA) to the upper-1.0700 levels.
As illustrated above, the price dynamics are currently in favor of the AUD, thereby limiting the prospects for a decline in the near-term.
Note:Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The reserve banks of Australia (RBA) and New Zealand (RBNZ) have both published slightly pessimistic outlooks for 2021, which in turn, would affect the Aussie and Kiwi.
The AUD/NZD, which represents the value of the Australian dollar in terms of the Kiwi, is rounding off the year higher than it began amid plummeting global equity and energy prices. That said, the Aussie had a healthier year compared to the NZD.
Meanwhile, both the RBA and the RBNZ have cut their interest rates this year. The RBA has cut its short-term target from +0.75% to +0.25%, while the New Zealand bank cut its rates from +1.00% to +0.25%.
The AUD is the riskier of both currencies, which means it tends to benefit more from positive risk sentiment and suffers more in negative risk markets than the NZD. However, the factor that would likely keep supporting the AUD in 2021 is the size of the Australian economy.
In 2018, New Zealand’s GDP was at US$205 billion, while Australia’s figures came in at a whopping US$1.43 trillion—about seven times larger than that of New Zealand’s. That said, a larger economy typically intensifies FX swings—which provides the underlying currency with immense liquidity and demand—compared to a smaller one.
With all that in mind, it remains somewhat unclear what the future holds for both currencies individually, considering the risks surrounding the commodities, energy, and equity markets, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, 2021 looks more favorable for the AUD over the NZD.
AUDNZD – Weekly Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — 2021
AUD/NZD 2021 Bias:Bullish
Supply Levels:1.1000, 1.1200, and 1.1300
Demand Levels:1.0550, 1.0400, and 1.0200
Despite having a choppy year, the AUD/NZD is rounding off better than it started the year. Already, the prospects for 2021 (from a technical perspective) seems very bullish for the pair, considering that it bounced off the base of our ascending channel in early December and is now on its way to the top of the channel.
That said, our highest expectation for the AUD/NZD in 2021 stands at 1.1300 (a six-year-strong resistance), while our lowest price expectation for the new year is 1.0000 (the lowest-ever recorded price).
Note:Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD maintained a bullish momentum through the trading session on Monday, amid a risk-off market mood. The declining risk mood seen at the start of the week has put the Aussie and the Kiwi on a backfoot against other major currencies. The risk sentiment got triggered by fears over the newly-found strain of the deadly Coronavirus in the UK.
Earlier today, the government of New South Wales announced that some travelers coming in from the UK were carrying the new strain of the Coronavirus.
Australia and New Zealand have handled the COVID-19 outbreak, as Australia reported just 15 cases after conducting 38,000 tests on Monday. Nonetheless, Australian states are enforcing entry restrictions on Sydney residents to keep the new strain of the virus contained in New South Wales only.
Currently, the Aussie has not reacted to the news of the latest outbreak, but speculators predict that the report will take its toll on the currency soon.
In other news, recent data from New Zealand showed that Credit Card Spending in November fell by 5.6% YoY. However, this positive development has gone unnoticed or ignored by market participants.
Also, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported its Interest Rate Decision in the mid-Asian session today. This report has also failed to boost market mood since its release.
AUDNZD – Hourly Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — December 21
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Bullish
Supply Levels:1.0725, 1.0800, and 1.0830
Demand Levels:1.0670, 1.0650, and 1.0600
The AUD/NZD continues to trade up our ascending channel, despite weakness in both currencies. The pair seems decisive in its ascent and could likely hit the crucial 1.0725 resistance soon.
Any fall from the current level should get repelled by the 1.0670 level (the base of our channel). A subsequent fall should get supported by the 1.0650 line.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD traded on a sideways momentum through the early trading hours on Monday, as it struggled to break the 1.0650 resistance. At press time, the forex pair is trading at 1.0649, up by 0.07% on the day.
Job advertisements in Australia rallied for the seventh consecutive time in November, as the country’s second-most populous state, Victoria, came out of lockdown. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) reported that total job advertisement grew by 14% in November in its most recent figures report.
That said, the group reported in its last week statement that job ads are likely to get back to their pre-COVID levels and even higher by the end of 2020
Meanwhile, a measure of Australian consumer sentiment rallied for the fourth consecutive month in December and has hit a 10-year high as the country eases its coronavirus lockdown restrictions and reopen several state borders. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index consumer sentiment, which was released last Wednesday, rose to 4.1% in December from 2.5% in the preceding month.
In other news, last week was positive for the Kiwi, following the goodish reports from New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. The MAnufacturing Sales figures came in at +10%, while the BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index rose to 55.3 in November.
Moving on, the market focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) December Meeting Minutes, scheduled to be released tomorrow. Furthermore, China will be releasing its Industrial Production and Retail Sales reports tomorrow as well, which would have a significant influence on the dynamics of the Aussie and Kiwi.
AUDNZD – Hourly Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — December 14
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Sideways
Supply Levels:1.0650, 1.0700, and 1.0725
Demand Levels:1.0600, 1.0550, and 1.0500
The AUD/NZD has failed, on several attempts, to break above the 1.0650 resistance line as consolidation sets in for the pair. However, the currency pair is trading within an ascending channel, indicating that bulls are in full control.
A decline into the previous prevailing descending channel should find support at the 1.0600 round figure. However, a break below this line could put the current uptrend into contention by bears.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD traded on a slightly bearish tone in the early European session on Monday, as it retreated from last week’s bull run.
Earlier today, China published its Trade Balance for November, which beat market expectations of $53.5 billion and came in at $75.4 billion. Also, the country reported that its Exports rose by 21% this year.
Despite the upbeat data from China, the Aussie and the Kiwi remained unmoved against other currencies, as investors avoid taking any aggressive bets on Monday.
Meanwhile, both currencies rallied last week as the global market risk mood got a lift, following positive developments surrounding potential COVID-19 vaccines.
In other news, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its rates unchanged last week as expected. The apex bank left its cash rate at a record low of 0.1% and also maintained its A$100 billion quantitative easing program.
Traders will be looking forward to the National Australia Bank’s Business Conference and Q3 House Price Index number from tomorrow for clues to what this pair might do next.
AUDNZD – 4-Hour Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — December 7
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Sideways
Supply Levels: 1.0600, 1.0650, and 1.0700
Demand Levels:1.0520, 1.0480, and 1.0400
The AUD/NZD has recorded a slight pullback from last week’s rejection from the base of our descending channel near 1.0400.
At press time, the pair has seen a minor pullback to the 1.0520 price point, where we could likely see a bounce to the top of our descending channel 1.0650. However, a break below the 1.0520 support zone could trigger a fresh selling spree around the AUD/NZD.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD traded on negative bias in the early European hours on Monday, with both currencies struggling for dominance as they both have favorable factors surrounding them.
Commodities continue to bolster the Aussie, with the daily measure of Australia’s commodity export nearing a 7-year high, as iron ore trades above $125 per tonne.
November was a good month for Australia’s economy as we saw positive data from retail sales and jobs, while border reopening across the country extended more confidence that the RBA easing measures would yield the intended results.
Meanwhile, Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure dropped below expectations in the third quarter of 2020, as data published by the countries statistics bureau (ABS) showed last week. Total new capital expenditure fell by 3% in the September quarter as opposed to the widely expected -1.5%.
In other news, the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI grew beyond market expectations and came in at 52.1, while Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.4 in November. This data release was favorable, particularly for the Kiwi, which was further bolstered by a positive outlook from the recent ANZ Business Confidence of New Zealand.
With fundamental factors favoring both currencies, we turn to technical signals to provide insight into what the AUD/NZD could do in the near-term.
AUDNZD – Hourly Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — November 30
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Bearish
Supply Levels: 1.0520, 1.0600, and 1.0650
Demand Levels:1.0485, 1.0400, and 1.0350
The AUD/NZD has fallen below the 1.0520 line and has failed on several occasions to retake that line. That said, we could expect to see a steady decline in this pair towards the base of our descending channel and subsequently to the 1.0400 area. Only a decisive break above the 1.0520 line can negate the current bearish momentum.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD traded on positive in the early European session, following the release of positive data from Australia on Friday.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) released better-than-expected preliminary Manufacturing PMI readings for November. As a result, the Composite PMI saw a decent boost as well.
Also, the ASX 200 extended additional support to the Aussie following its goodish bounce last week.
Meanwhile, it got reported recently that Aussie Treasurer Josh Frydenberg signaled a tax-cut extension for domestic businesses in the country. This recent development, as confirmed by the Australian Financial Review (AFR), bolstered the risk tone surrounding the Aussie.
In other news, New Zealand reported better-than-expected Q3 Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales, indicating a drastic improvement in the country’s economy.
The data added to the positive tone that had been set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policymakers. Although the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr cited a gloomy picture of the global COVID-19 resurgence in his latest speech, the Governor firmly stood against negative rates in the near-term while lauding the performance of the Pacific economy in the face of the pandemic.
AUDNZD – Hourly Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — November 23
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Bullish
Supply Levels:1.0600, 1.0650, and 1.0725
Demand Levels:1.0520, 1.0485, and 1.0400
The AUD/NZD is currently trading with a bullish tone following its recent bounce off the 1.0520 support level. That said, we are likely to see the pair make a break for the 1.0600 resistance soon. This proposed bullish momentum will get negated if the AUD/NZD sees a sustained break below the 1.0520 support.
Nonetheless, given that it’s still the start of the week and volatility is sparse, we should expect some sideways movement in the coming hours.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD traded with a sideways bias through the early European session on Monday, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 0.25% and promised to keep its rates the same until March 2021.
The Aussie and the Kiwi traded strongly against other top cryptocurrencies last week as a result of the renewed demand for riskier assets on the back of positive news relating to a COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer.
However, the risk tone got killed by new information about the vaccine’s distribution methods, dosage, and shelf life. The risk most was further dampened by the erratic rise of COVID-19 cases in the United States, which threatened to derail any significant economic recovery in the near-term.
Meanwhile, the recent announcement by the RBNZ about leaving their OCR unchanged continues to strengthen the prospects of the NZD against the AUD and other currencies. The RBNZ initiated a new funding program last Wednesday that aims at reducing costs for lenders while keeping its interest rate at record lows. The bank also mentioned its readiness to shift to negative rates to support the economy if need be.
That commitment and the new funding -for-lending program (FLP) for banks forced markets to eradicate the prospects of negative rates. This stance drove the Kiwi higher last week, and we could see a continuation of the surge this week.
AUD/NZD – 4-Hour Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — November 16
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Sideways
Supply Levels:1.0725, 1.0844, and 1.0934
Demand Levels:1.0600, 1.0500, and 1.0400
The AUD/NZD bulls remain in a fight to secure the 1.0600 psychological support. A break below that level could precipitate renewed declines to the 1.0500 support and lower.
Given the current strength surrounding the NZD, a downward continuation in the AUD/NZD seems very likely at the moment.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
The AUD/NZD traded in a tight range between 1.0685 and 1.0725 in the mid-European session on Monday and was last spotted trading at the 1.0725 resistance.
On Friday, Australia released its AIG Performance of Services Index, which showed a decent improvement from 36.2 in September to 51.4 in October.
Meanwhile, the Aussie recorded a short-lived decline on Tuesday, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision. As was widely expected, the RBA announced that it would be cutting its interest rate to a record low of 0.01%. Also, RBA policymakers disclosed that they planned on buying AUD 100 B of 5y-10y bonds over the next six months. Although this could have some damaging effects on the AUD, RBA Governor Philip Lowe remains optimistic about the near-term prospects of the country’s economic progress, adding that it is highly unlikely for the bank to publish negative rates.
That said, AUD/NZD traders’ focus will now be shifted to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision on Wednesday.
Although it is expected that RBNZ policymakers will leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, they are also expected to announce a new monetary policy tool in Wednesday’s meeting to boost borrowing costs for lenders and boost economic growth.
AUDNZD – 4-Hour Chart
AUD/NZD Value Forecast — November 9
AUD/NZD Major Bias:Sideways
Supply Levels:1.0750, 1.0800, and 1.0844
Demand Levels:1.0650, 1.0600, and 1.0500
The AUD/NZD is currently trading in a sideways momentum as markets reel from last week’s US elections-induced volatility. This pair is trading within a descending channel and we expect the ensuing momentum to be bearish, given the state of affairs surrounding the AUD.
That said, we could see a temporary break above the 1.0725 resistance, followed by additional declines to the 1.0600 level.
Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
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