This week in the foreign exchange market, we are seeing a divergence in trend sustainability. While powerful trends in pairs like NZDCHF and EURNZD continue to press forward, others are showing clear signs of exhaustion or indecision. The bullish momentum in AUDNZD and EURGBP has stalled near recent highs, and AUDCAD has settled into a neutral phase after last week’s volatility. Traders will be closely monitoring whether momentum can be reignited or if corrections are imminent.
AUDCAD
Major Bias: Neutral
Following last week’s failed breakout and subsequent sell-off, AUDCAD has found stability around the 0.90679 level. The sharp bearish momentum has dissipated, and the pair has entered a sideways consolidation phase. The MACD indicator is showing waning bearish momentum, and the RSI is hovering near the 50 midline, confirming a state of market equilibrium. The bias is now neutral as the pair awaits a new directional catalyst to break out of this tight range.
EURGBP
Major Bias: Cautiously Bullish
While the overall trend for EURGBP remains bullish after its recent breakout, the upward momentum has noticeably slowed. The price action has turned into a shallow drift sideways, suggesting buyer exhaustion or profit-taking near the recent highs. The MACD confirms this loss of momentum as its lines are beginning to converge. The bias remains bullish, but with caution. A period of consolidation or a minor pullback could occur before the uptrend attempts to resume.
NZDCHF
Major Bias: Bearish
The dominant bearish trend in NZDCHF continues with relentless force. Sellers remain in complete control, pushing the pair to new lows with no significant relief for buyers. The MACD is deeply negative and expanding, indicating that downside momentum is still accelerating. Although the RSI is in extremely oversold territory (below 25), this is currently a reflection of the trend’s strength rather than an imminent reversal signal. The bias is firmly bearish.
AUDNZD
Major Bias: Bullish (with increased caution)
AUDNZD continues to trade at multi-year highs, but warning signs of trend exhaustion are becoming more apparent. The pair is consolidating at the top of its explosive rally, and the RSI is at an extremely overbought level of 82. Furthermore, a potential bearish divergence is forming on the MACD, where price has made higher highs while the momentum indicator has not. While the primary trend remains bullish, the risk of a sharp corrective pullback has increased significantly.
EURNZD
Major Bias: Bullish
The bullish trend in EURNZD remains strong and intact. The pair continues to advance after breaking out to new all-time highs, with consistent buying pressure evident in the price action. The MACD is expanding to the upside, signaling healthy and sustained momentum. While the RSI has entered overbought territory, it is rising in line with the price, which often occurs in a strong, trending market. The bias remains firmly bullish, with the path of least resistance still pointing higher.
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