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Last week, the Japanese yen fortunes were reversed as US government yields accelerated higher following the FOMC’s hawkish meeting and projections. US stocks showed significant resiliency as well, closing mostly higher and recovering previous losses.
Sterling, on the other hand, defied the BoE’s hawkish stance and finished as the second-weakest currency. Concerns about China’s Evergrande in Asian markets were felt by Australian and New Zealanders.
The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, was the greatest performance, thanks to a sustained rally in oil prices. The Swiss Franc and the US Dollar were the next strongest currencies. However, the Dollar’s upward momentum hasn’t been very impressive. The greenback’s ability to ride the aggressive Fed to pick up further buying is a significant question.
Last week’s FOMC announcement met expectations for a hawkish slant. If “development continues largely as expected,” the statement plainly said that “a reduction in the pace of asset purchases may soon be needed.” The anticipation was that an announcement would be made during the November meeting.
Members have also pushed out the date of the first interest rate hike. Nine out of 18 members said it will happen in 2022, according to the median dot plots. The policy rate was projected to rise to 0.3 percent next year, according to the staff projection.
Fed funds futures are currently pricing in only a 25.43 percent likelihood of the federal funds rate being at 0-0.25 percent in December 2022, according to the most recent data. That’s down significantly from 44.87 percent a week earlier. To put it another way, markets are now pricing in a nearly 75% chance of at least one rate hike by the end of 2022.
Last week, the US treasury yield increased significantly, and it continued to rise after the FOMC meeting. With a close of 0.957, the 5-year yield is very close to the 0.988 high. From there, consolidation should have finished around 0.606 by now, and the uptrend from 0.192 should be set to resume. Based on the current upside momentum, a break of 0.988 is imminent, with FVX aiming for a 61.8 percent projection of 0.192 to 0.988 from 0.606 at 1.098 as the next objective.
By breaking past the 1.420 near-term barriers, the benchmark 10-year yield made significant headway as well. Overall, the development supports the theory that the drop from 1.765 has ended at 1.128, following the 50% retracement of 0.504 to 1.765 at 1.134. The odds are now in favor of a retest of the 1.765 high. The question is more about the strength of the following rally’s momentum.
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