I-EUR/USD Ibhekisa Kwabaphansi Okusha kwe-1.0500 Ngenxa Yesimo Esibi, Nokwehlukana Kwezinkathazo Phakathi Kwe-Fed ne-ECB

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Okubhaliselwe kwanyanga zonke kuqala ku-£58.

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I-EUR/USD isiphinde yaqala ukwehla ngemuva kokuhluleka ukuhlehlisa ukuthambekela ngoLwesihlanu, njengoba izingxoxo zokugwema ubungozi zibe nomthelela ekwehlukeni kwenqubomgomo yezimali ye-ECB (European Central Bank) kanye ne-Fed (Federal Reserve).

Umongameli we-Federal Reserve u-Jerome Powell akazange avumelane nesinyathelo sokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo ngo-75bps, njengokukhathazeka ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali okuthwalisa kanzima ukukhula komnotho. Intuthuko ephilayo ezungeze umbiko wemisebenzi yase-US wenyanga edlule yeza ezinsukwini ezi-3 ezedlule, okusho ukuthi i-Fed izogcina isikhundla sayo se-hawkish.

Izinga lokungasebenzi lihlala lifana kumaphesenti angu-3.6, kuyilapho i-US Non-farm payroll ikhiphe i-428,000 edlula i-391,000 eyayibikezelwe.

Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi uJames Bullard (uMongameli webhange le-Fed lase-Saint Louis) uphindaphinda isisekelo sakhe se-bullish, esidonsele iFederal Reserve esilinganisweni samaphesenti angama-3.5.

Ezinye Izinto Ezishayela I-EUR/USD kanye Nokulindelwe Ngalolo suku

Ngokuphambene nalokho, ilungu le-European Central Bank ezinsukwini ezingu-3 ezedlule lathi "I-European Central Bank akumele ivumele ukwehla kwamandla emali ukuthi kuqiniswe ngokuqinile kulokho okulindelwe abantu" njengoba kudalulwe yiReuters. Ngaphambi kwakhe, u-Joachim Nagal oyisikhulu seBhange Elikhulu laseJalimane uthe ithuba lokuthi i-ECB iqhamuke nenqubomgomo yezimali liya ngokuya lishabalala. Noma kunjalo, uFrancisco Villeroy de Gala uthe "Kunengqondo ukukhulisa inzalo, amanani abheke endaweni enhle ekupheleni kwalo nyaka".

Ngakho-ke, inqubomgomo njengoba ihlobene nakho kokubili i-EUR ne-USD ziyazabalaza zodwa, kodwa umnotho wase-Europe awunawo amandla njengalowo wase-US, okunikeza i-Federal Reserve inzuzo yokunyuka kwezinga elisheshayo. Lokhu kuphinde kwasekela isivuno soMgcinimafa wase-US, okuyenza ifinyelele amazinga aphezulu amasha angakaze afinyelelwe kusukela ngo-2018, inyuke ngo-2 bps yaya ku-3.15% njengangesikhathi sokubhala. Okufanayo kuphinde kwaqhubekisela phambili i-DXY (inkomba yedola) yaya eminyakeni engu-20 ukuphakama kwe-104 okwamanje.

Amacala abhebhetheka kakhulu e-coronavirus eChina - okuphoqe izwe ukuthi livale umnyango, kuhlanganiswe nempi phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine - enyuse ingcindezi yomhlaba wonke eRussia njengoba ukulwa kuya ngokushuba esifundeni esisempumalanga ye-Ukraine, nakho kuthinta isimo.

Ukuqhubekela phambili, njengoba kunezingqinamba ezimbalwa zezomnotho namuhla, lokhu kungase kubangele i-EUR/USD ukuba ihluke. Noma kunjalo, i-US CPI (Inkomba Yamanani Abathengi) kanye nenkulumo kaChristine Largade okumele ikhokhwe ngolwesithathu, izobaluleka ekuthwaleni isikhashana.

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