Inzala engalunganga: isebenza njani ngokusebenza?

UMichael Fasogbon

Ukuhlaziywa: 2 Disemba 2023

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Inzala ibaluleke kakhulu kutshintshiselwano lwangaphandle iimarike. Inzala yelizwe ichazwa yibhanki enguvimba.

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Iipesenti ezingama-71 zeeakhawunti zotyalo mali zilahleka xa kuthengiswa iiCFD kunye nalo mboneleli.

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Sisixhobo sokulawula uqoqosho – mhlawumbi ngokunyusa izinga lenzala ukunqanda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, okanye ngokuthoba inzala ukukhuthaza ukukhula.

Kutheni izinga lenzala libalulekile?

Umgangatho wenzala

Izinga lenzala linemisebenzi emininzi:

Ziindleko ezibizwa yibhanki enguvimba kwiibhanki zelizwe ngokuziboleka imali zize zona ziyisebenzise njengesiseko semali ezihlawulisa abaxhasi bazo ngemali.

Ixabiso lenzala likwayiyo ibhanki eyintloko ehlawula abatyali-mali kwizixhobo zetyala ezikhuphayo.

Oku kwenza kube sisixhobo sebhanki eliphakathi elineempembelelo kwixabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukukhula kunye nezinga lokutshintshiselana: ukuba inzala iphantsi kwaye i-credit iphantsi, abantu bazimisele ukuchitha imali, oku kunokuvelisa ukukhula, kodwa kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yokuba kukho. imfuno engaphezulu; Ukuba izinga lenzala liphezulu, ixabiso letyala liya kuba phezulu, ukukhula kuya kuba ngaphantsi kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kuba ngenxa yokuba imfuno iyancipha.

Ukunyuka kwamazinga enzala

Xa ibhanki ephakathi iphakamisa inzala yayo, inefuthe lokomeleza ixabiso lemali yayo ngokuchasene nezinye iimali.

Ngokwenene, izinga eliphezulu lenzala liqinisekisa umvuzo ongcono kubatyali-mali (ngeentengiselwano zotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle).

Ngokomzekelo, ukuba i-Fed iphakamisa amaxabiso ayo, izikhundla zeedola zinenzuzo ngakumbi kwaye abatyali-mali baya kuguqula ngakumbi kwii-asethi ze-dollar ukuze basebenzise le mbuyekezo.

IDola ke ngoko iya kuxabisa kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle.

Amaxabiso oMdla oNgxaki

Iibhanki ezingoovimba ezininzi ziye zathoba inzala yezalathiso ukuya kumanqanaba angalunganga.

Oku kuthetha ukuba iibhanki zorhwebo zifumana ilahleko xa zifaka imali yazo engaphezulu kwibhanki enguvimba, kuba emva koko zifumana ngaphantsi kwaleyo beziyidipozithe.

Inzala engalunganga yinkuthazo kwiibhanki ukuba ziboleke uluntu imali, nto leyo enokunyusa ukukhula koqoqosho kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, izinto ekujoliswe kuzo yibhanki enguvimba kumazwe anexabiso lentengo eliphantsi kakhulu kunye nokukhula okuphantsi.

Basenokuchaphazela izinga lotshintshiselwano, kuba kukho inkuthazo yokutyalomali kwii-asethi ezikhethiweyo kwezinye iimali ezinenzala ephezulu.

Oko kukuthi, bakhuthaza ukuhla kwezinga lotshintshiselwano. Ukuhla kwexabiso lemali kuchaphazela ukukhula, kuba kukhuthaza ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.

Nangona kunjalo, ngumlinganiselo wenoveli kwaye kukho amava amancinci kunye namazinga enzala angalunganga. Iingcali zezoqoqosho zilandela ngomdla le nto intsha.

Ezinye iziphumo ezibi zisenokuba kukuhla kwengeniso yeebhanki kunye nokugqithiswa komngcipheko othathwe ngabatyali-mali ngenxa yengeniso ephantsi.

Kukho umngcipheko wokudala amaqamza kumacandelo athile, afana ne-real estate.

Abahlalutyi abaninzi babona amazinga enzala angalunganga njengamanyathelo anzima okufikelela usukelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziyingozi kwinkqubo yezemali kunye nokuzinza kwezoqoqosho.

Amazwe ngoku anenzala engalunganga yiDenmark (-0.65%), iSwitzerland (-0.75%), iSweden (-0.35%) kunye neJapan (-0.1%).

I-European Central Bank (ECB) nayo inenzala engalunganga ye-0.3%.

Ukuba bayasebenza, ngaba sisekuqaleni kwexesha elitsha lehlabathi lenzala engalunganga? Zeziphi iimpembelelo ezinokuthi amazinga enzala angalunganga abe nawo kuqoqosho?

Iqondo lenzala elibi kwiManyano yaseYurophu

I-European Central Bank (ECB) igcine inzala ye-zero ukususela phakathi kwe-2012 kunye ne-negative ukususela phakathi kwe-2014, ukuphepha ukulindela i-deflationary.

I-ECB inomgomo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngonyaka we-2%, ngelixa ukulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwi-2015 bekuyi-1% kwiminyaka eyi-4 ezayo.

Umahluko wezinga lenzala phakathi kweYurophu neMelika ube negalelo ekwehleni kwexabiso le-Euro xa ithelekiswa neDola.

Umyinge wenzala oNegative eJapan

NgoFebruwari 2016, iBhanki yaseJapan iya kwamkela amazinga enzala angalunganga ukuphepha ukulindela ukuhla.

Izinga lokukhula kwamaxabiso li-0.2% (unyaka nonyaka ngoDisemba 2015), ngelixa i-inflation target iyi-2%. Inzala yi-0.1%.

I-Japan ihlupheka kwimeko yokukhula ephantsi (kwi-2015 i-GDP yehla nge-0.1%) idibaniswe nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphantsi.

Urhulumente waseJapan sele ezame ukwandisa ukukhula ngokunyuka kwenkcitho yoluntu kunye nokwandiswa kwemali.

Izinga lenzala elibi lithathwa njengomlinganiselo ophunyezwayo emva kokuba amanye amanyathelo emveli engaphumelelanga.

Abasemagunyeni bakhankanya imeko embi yoqoqosho lwaseTshayina kunye nokuguquguquka okuphezulu kweemarike zezemali zehlabathi njengezinto zoqikelelo olubi loqoqosho lwaseJapan.

Izinga lokukhula kwemveliso ye-Japan ngomntu ngamnye liyachatshazelwa yinto yokuguga kwabantu kwaye, ngokungafaniyo namazwe aseYurophu, phantse i-zero imgration.

Izinga leNzala eNegative eSweden

Kwimeko yaseSweden, ibhanki ephakathi (i-Risk bank) ifuna ukufezekisa injongo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso yonyaka ye-2%. Uqikelelo lwexabiso lentengo eSweden kulo nyaka beluphakathi kwe-0.7% kunye ne-1.3%.

Ibhanki yoMngcipheko inobunzima ekufikeleleni kwithagethi yayo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yokuhla kwexabiso lempahla ekrwada kunye namaxabiso aphantsi eemveliso.

Ukuhla kwexabiso le-Euro kubangele ukuba iindleko zokungeniswa kwempahla evela eSweden ziwe, nto leyo yaba nefuthe elihlayo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Ngokukhuthaza iibhanki ukuba ziboleke uluntu endaweni yokubeka imali kwi-Riskbank, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso luyadalwa.

Ngelo xesha, ukubanjwa kwemali yesizwe (i-krona yaseSweden) idikibala, eyenza uxinzelelo lokuyinciphisa. Ukuhla kwexabiso kunempembelelo entle ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso.

Ngokungafaniyo neJapan, uqoqosho lwaseSweden alunangxaki yokukhula, kuba lukwi-3%.

Inzala yeRiskbank yangena kwindawo engalunganga ngo-2014.

Umyinge wenzala oNegative eDenmark

Umgangatho wenzala

Ireferensi yenzala eDenmark yi-0.0172%

IDenmark inemali (isithsaba saseDanish) ebotshelelwe kwi-Euro kunye nenguqu enokwenzeka ye-2.25%.

Inzala engalunganga yebhanki yeSizwe yaseDenmark (ibhanki ephakathi yaseDenmark) ibe kwindawo engafanelekanga ukususela phakathi kwe-2012, ukuze kugcinwe ixabiso leDanish Crown kufuphi ne-euro.

Njengoko i-European Central Bank (ECB) yehlisa izinga layo lenzala ukulwa ne-deflation, ibhanki yeSizwe yaseDenmark nayo kwafuneka ithobe izinga lenzala ukuthintela isithsaba saseDanish ukuba sixabise.

Ukuba ibhanki yeSizwe yaseDenmark ayizange ithobe izinga lenzala, abatyali-mali babeza kuthenga iimpahla ezichongiweyo kwiDanish Crowns ukuze bathathe inzuzo yokwahluka kwesivuno; oku bekuya kuyixabisa imali.

IDenmark yinxalenye yenkqubo yezemali yaseYurophu. I-European Exchange Mechanism (ERM), apho iDenmark ibambelela khona, iseka ukuguquguquka okunokwenzeka kweDanish Crown ngokuchasene ne-Euro.

Uloyiko lwabahlalutyi bemeko eDenmark luxhomekile phezu kozinzo lwenkqubo yezemali noqoqosho.

Amaxabiso ezindlu zexesha elifutshane abi kwaye amaxabiso epropathi anyuke kakhulu, ngakumbi eCopenhagen, ikomkhulu laseDenmark.

Iqondo lenzala elibi eSwitzerland

Ireferensi yenzala ye-Swiss central bank (SNB) yi-0.75%.

I-Switzerland yehlise izinga lenzala kumhlaba ongalunganga ngoJuni 2014, ngexesha elifanayo ukuba isilingi ye-1.20 francs nge-euro ishiywe.

Esinye sezizathu kukwenza buthathaka imali yaseSwitzerland, i-franc yaseSwitzerland, ukuvuselela uqoqosho kunye nokunyusa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.

I-United States ayikuthinteli inzala engalunganga

I-United States Federal Reserve iya kuvavanya ukukwazi kweebhanki zase-US ukuba zisebenze ngenzala engalunganga ixesha elide.

Iyakwenza uvavanyo loxinzelelo apho inzala ingena kwindawo engalunganga ngo-2016 kwaye ihlale ingalunganga kude kube ngu-2019.

I-AvaTrade-eQinisekisiweyo yeBroker ngeeKhomishini eziSimahla

Isilinganisi sethu

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Kwangoko ubeke imali ngedebhithi / ikhadi lekhredithi

Fumana ufikelelo kuBomi bonke

Iipesenti ezingama-71 zeeakhawunti zotyalo mali zilahleka xa kuthengiswa iiCFD kunye nalo mboneleli.

Oku akubonisi i-forecast, kuphela uvavanyo lwamandla eebhanki, nangona kuthathwa njengento enokwenzeka.

Nangona kunjalo, ulindelo lwangoku kukuba i-Federal Reserve iya kuqhubeka iphakamisa inzala yayo. Ngoku ithagethi iku-0.25% (ngoDisemba 2015 inyuke ukusuka ku-0%).

Ukuba iUnited States iyaqhubeka nokunyusa izinga lenzala yereferensi, oku kuya kuba nefuthe elihle kuqoqosho lwaseYurophu kunye nokunciphisa uxinzelelo olusezantsi kwinzala.

Inzala engalunganga: isebenza njani ngokusebenza?

UMichael Fasogbon

Joyina wethu yocingo Iziteshi