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WHEN THE MARKET BECOMES INTRACTABLE
Especially in the short-term, anyone can make money in the market. However, beating the markets consistently and for the long-term is what most traders find difficult. While trading management and risk control tools are present for prudent traders to employ, they are not the ultimate secret.
You can use a good strategy plus good risk management tools to play the markets, but you will get frustrated from time-to-time if you ignore the secret mentioned in this article. Please mark my word and write today’s date down.
I have been in the markets for around 13 years and I have tested more than 600 strategies and methodologies, mechanical or discretionary (whether manual, semi-automated or fully automated). I have traded various types of financial markets. I can tell you that it is completely impossible to beat the markets consistently with only one strategy.
There are times when you make money by buying at support levels and selling at resistance levels. There are times when you thrive by going long in oversold markets and going short in overbought markets. Sometimes, doing this does not work, as the markets may later defy demand and supply levels and continue dropping in an oversold condition (or continue rallying when the market is already overbought).
Sometimes, you just see a direction the market is going and simply follow it and make money. For instance, you see a very weak market and open a sell order and you make money. Nonetheless, after days, weeks or months (or even years), you will see that most of the positions you open in the direction of the market turn negative and never come to positive regions again.
What most traders would have noticed is that they make money, then lose money and make money again, only to lose again. This vicious circle goes on and on, and most will eventually lose more than they gain. When a particular market condition is no longer in favor of your strategy, the more you trade that strategy the more losses you sustain.
IS THERE ANY SOLUTION?
For many years, veterans of the markets like Dr. Van K. Tharp, have been emphasizing the need to develop different strategies for different market types, since a single system cannot work in all market types. Recognize the current market type and then switch to an effective strategy that is OK for that market type.
Failure to accept this reality is the main reason why majority of traders end up being frustrated. A method that works well in ranging markets may perform poorly in volatile bear markets. A method that works well in strong bull markets will fail if used in ranging markets. A scalping method may work well in a ranging market, but fail ignominiously in a trending market. A trend-following system can suffer seriously in choppy markets.
While there are many market types, a market will either be trending or ranging. A trend may be transitory or protracted; a sideways market may also hold out longer or play out temporarily. How do you survive all these without being completely sure of what can happen next?
HERE IS THE SOLUTION
As mentioned earlier, no single system can work in all market condition, because markets dynamics change from time to time. What I have figured out: I have 2 strategies. One works well in a trending market and another one works well in a trendless market.
I use the one that works well in a trending market as long as I make money and I do not go down by 10% maximum (I risk 1% – 2% per trade). Once I get a roll-down of 10% or less (that is several losing trades), I know the strategy does not work again and I change to my mean reversion strategy, which works well in a trendless market. I use the mean-reversion system as long as I do not go down by 10% loss or less.
I do not change strategies blindly; I ensure that the present market type is also in favor of the strategy I switch to.
That is how I make sure that I make profits on monthly basis – no matter what happens in the markets. The profits in some months are smaller than expected and the profits in some months are bigger than expected. The bottom line: There is no month in which I do not make profits.
It is very childish and illogical to predetermine your profits in advance when you cannot control the markets. Thinking in that way is a recipe for eventual frustration. In December 2019, airlines could as well predetermine their profits in 2020 based on historical returns, not knowing there was going to be a worldwide lockdown
Yes, I cannot know in advance how much I will make on a monthly basis. That is revealed only in hindsight, (unless I want to dwell in a fool’s paradise, as most traders do). But I know full well that every month will be profitable for me, no matter the profits in terms of percentage.
Source: www.learn2.trade
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