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Iyo dhora iri kupera simba panguva yeUS musangano, kunyanya ichipesana neyen. MunaMay, PCE inflation yakawedzera zvakanyanya asi yakadonha zvishoma pane zvaifungidzirwa. Sterling, kune rumwe rutivi, ndiye asina kusimba kufamba nhasi, achiwedzera post-BoE selloff. Njodzi pamusoro pekukwira kwezvirwere zvecoronavirus zviri kuisawo kumanikidza paPondo. Zvemari zvemari ndizvo zvine simba kwazvo, neramangwana reUS rinoratidzira pakumhanya kurekodha.
Mari yeUS yemunhu yakadonha -2.0% amai, kana $ 414.3bn muna Chivabvu, zvinoenderana nezvitarisirwa. Kudonha kwemari yemunhu kwainyanya kuratidzwa mukuderera kwehurumende mabhenefiti. Mariro yakadzikira ne -0.4% MoM, inoenderanawo nezvinotarisirwa. Iyo yakazara PCE mutengo index yakamhanyisa kusvika ku3.9% y / y kubva pa3.6% y / y, pazasi pekutarisira kwe4.0% y / y. Iyo yepakati PCE mutengo index yakamhanyisa kusvika ku3.4% y / y. YoY vs. 3.1% YoY, uchikundikana pane zvinotarisirwa pa3.5% YoY.
Mukupindura kudhiza kwedhora mukumisikidza kwenhamba dzinoodza mwoyo dzePCE, iyo EUR / USD ikozvino yatengesa pamashure matsva maviri-mazuva. Zvisinei, kutya kwekuwedzera kwemitengo kwakadzikira pamwe chete netarisiro yekutapudza mushure mekunge inflation yeUS, sekuyerwa nePCE, yakakwira 2 muzana pamwedzi mumwedzi waMay uye 0.5 muzana gore pamusoro pegore, isina kusiya nzvimbo yezvishamiso zvepamusoro uye kuisa dhora pasi pekumanikidzwa kumwe.
Inogona here iyo US Core PCE Inokurumidza Yenhengo dzeFed Kuchinja Maonero Avo?
Zvinotendwa kuti iyo Core PCE muUS ndiyo Fed yavanofarira inflation chiyero. Inovhara dzimba dzese nemasangano asingabatsiri anoshandira dzimba. Naizvozvo, zvinonzi Fed inosarudza iyi inflation mwero kune vamwe.
Sechiyeuchidzo, pamusangano uchangopfuura weFOMC, “Machati machati” yakaratidza kuti nhengo dzanga dzichitarisira kukwidzwa kwemitengo miviri mukupera kwa2, uye nhengo nomwe dzaitarisira kukwidza mwero pakupera kwa2023. Pamusoro pezvo, nhengo yeFed Bullard nguva pfupi yadarika yakati Powell akavhura nhaurwa pamusoro pekutapa. Nepo yanhasi Core PCE kudhinda kwaive kushoma pane zvaitarisirwa, ichiri kushanda kwakasimba.
Naizvozvo, kana ichi chiri chimwe chezviratidzo zvekukwira kwemitero zveFed, inflation yanhasi ichavatungamira kuti vatore nguva pamberi pezvavanoda? Nhengo dzeFed dzave kuratidzira vhiki rese, vachikurukura kuti kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira ndekwenguva pfupi. Vamwe vakuru vanoona inflation kunge ichipfuura kupfuura vamwe. Nhau dzanhasi dzinoratidza kuti kunyangwe inflation yakakwira, haisi kukura. Zvichava zvinonakidza kuona kana kutaura kwaFed kuchichinja maratidziro ake semhedzisiro yanhasi.
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