Hoʻomaha ʻo DXY Bulls i mua o nā hanana mākeke, FOMC a me Q2 GDP

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10 mau minuke hoʻonohonoho me nā pōmaikaʻi nui. Hāʻawi ʻia ka manual me ke kūʻai.

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Ua hāʻule ka papa kuhikuhi DXY - dālā i ke kālepa mua ʻana o ka Pōʻakahi, kaupaona ʻia e ka piʻi ʻana o nā kālā makaʻu, ʻoiai e pili kokoke ana i kona kiʻekiʻe he ʻekolu a me ka hapa-mahina i hoʻonohonoho ʻia i ka pule i hala.

ʻO ka hoʻonui ākea e noho loli ʻole, me ke kālepa ʻana i ka ʻaoʻao i manaʻo ʻia ma ke ʻano he hanana kūpono i mua o ka hālāwai kulekele Fed o kēia pule a ʻIkepili US GDP. Ke kakali nei ka mākeke i kahi kūlana hawkish hou aʻe mai ka Fed, a me ka neʻe ʻana o ka verbiage, e hōʻailona ana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hōʻemi haʻahaʻa o ke kākoʻo kālā, e hiki mai paha i kēia makahiki.

Ua kākoʻo pū ʻia ka DXY e ka hōʻeleu ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai o US, kahi e hoʻohuli ai i ka hoʻoholo a ka Fed. Ua hoʻonui ka hoʻokele waiwai i ka uku makahiki o 8.6% i ka hapaha ʻelua, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 6.4 pakeneka i ka mua. I kēia pule, e ʻimi ana nā mea hoʻopukapuka i nā hōʻike loaʻa mai nā ʻoihana S&P 500 he nui. Hiki i kēia ke hoʻololi i ka leo o ka mākeke.

Nā hanana mākeke: FOMC a me Q2 GDP

ʻO ka hālāwai FOMC ma ka Pōʻakolu ke kikowaena o ka nānā ʻana o ke kikowaena waena i kēia pule. E hana hou paha ia i ka hōʻike a ka luna o ka luna hoʻomalu o Fed Powell he makahiki makahiki i ka ʻahaʻōlelo, a i ʻole e hiki i nā hawk ke hoʻohuli iā ia ua hana ka mākeke hana. "Hoʻonui hou aʻe" a hiki ke hoʻomaka koke i ka hoʻopau ʻana? Me nā ʻenehana e hōʻike ana i ka loaʻa kālā FB, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, a me GOOGL i kēia pule, e lilo ke alo i mua a me ke kikowaena.

ʻO ka nīnau i ka manawa e hōʻike aku ai ke kōmike i nā mākeke e kokoke ana ka uhi ʻana. E ʻike maikaʻi nā mākeke ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hoʻopili ʻana, e like me ka ʻōlelo a ka luna hoʻomalu o Fed Powell. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Powell i kāna hōʻike hou loa ʻaʻole i hoʻokumu ka mākeke hana “Ka hoʻomaikaʻi hou aʻe” e hōʻoia i ka hoʻopili ʻana. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia ma Malaki e pono ana kahi kahakaha o nā mahina helu maikaʻi. A ʻo kahi hopena, ʻoiai ʻo June ʻo Non-Farm Payroll paʻi paʻi + 850,000, ʻo Mei i paʻi hou ʻia he +583,000 (nāwaliwali ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia), a ʻo ʻApelila paʻi + 266,000 wale nō. (ʻoi aku ka nāwaliwali ma mua o ka loiloi). I kēia pule, e hōʻike ana ka US iā Core PCE, ka mea i manaʻo nui ʻia e like me ka hōʻailona makemake ʻia o Fed no ka hoʻonui kālā (ʻoiai ʻaʻole a hiki i ka Pōʻalima, ma hope o ka hālāwai FOMC.)

ka manawa “ʻIkepili hopena mahina” pili i ka ʻike i hōʻiliʻili ʻia i ka hopena o ka mahina. ʻAʻole wale ka FOMC e hui i kēia pule, akā e luku ʻia kekahi o nā ʻikepili ʻikepili hoʻokele waiwai e kiaʻi ai. Kuhi mākou i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia o US, Kelemania, a me Eurozone Q2 GDP, a me Kelemania Hoʻololi Hana Hana ʻole, Australian CPI, a me US Core PCE.