Ƙarfin Ƙarfin Makamashi na CAD Kyakkyawan Dalili don Mayar da Tattalin Arziki

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CAD shine mafi munin wasan kwaikwayo a tsakanin manyan, yana faɗuwa zuwa mafi ƙasƙanci tun watan Agusta (CAD mafi kyawun wasan kwaikwayo akan USD). Kudin makamashi da bayanan aiki masu ƙarfi sun haɓaka dawo da Loonie. Matsalolin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki sun kuma sa tsammanin tsammanin hauhawar farashin Bankin Kanada.

Farashin makamashi shine babban direba na ƙarfin loonie. Yayin da matsalar makamashi a China, Turai, da Ingila ta tsananta, farashin danyen mai ya tashi. A makon da ya gabata, gaba-gaba WTI da Brent danyen mai ya tashi sama da kashi 5% da +4.95 bisa dari, bi da bi. A makon da ya gabata, kwangilar WCS na gaba-gaba, wanda shine ma'aunin danyen mai na Kanada, ya hau +3.3 %. CAD ya tashi yayin da buƙatun fitar da mai na Kanada ya ƙaru.

A watan Satumba, yawan mutanen da ke aiki a Kanada ya karu da dubu 157.1, wanda ya zarce tsammanin 61.2 dubu da Agusta 90.2 dubu. A watan Agusta, yawan marasa aikin yi ya ragu da kashi 0.2 zuwa kashi 6.9%, kamar yadda aka zata, kuma ya ci gaba da inganta zuwa kashi 7.1. Wannan ya sha bamban da kididdigar lissafin albashin Amurka. A watan Satumba, Amurka ta ƙara ayyukan marasa aikin gona na kawai +194K, ƙasa da ƙimar yarjejeniya ta +500K. An sake duba adadi na Agusta har ya kai +366K. Yawan marasa aikin yi, a daya bangaren, ya ragu sosai daga kashi 5.2 cikin dari a watan Agusta zuwa kashi 4.8 a yanzu. Kasuwa tana tsammanin raguwa kaɗan zuwa kashi 5.1.
Hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a kasar ya kasance mai girma. A watan Agusta, kanun labarai na CPI ya karu zuwa +4.1 bisa dari y/y, daga +3.7 bisa dari a watan da ya gabata. Karuwar farashin man fetur, wanda ya haura kashi 32.5 bisa dari sama da na daidai wannan lokacin a bara, ya ba da gudummawar kusan kashi ɗaya ga adadin kanun labarai.

Babban CPI ya karu da kashi 3.5 cikin ɗari a shekara fiye da shekara, daga kashi +3.3 cikin ɗari a watan Yuli. Bugu da ƙari, matsakaicin matakan fifiko uku na babban bankin ya tashi da kashi 2.6 cikin ɗari a shekara fiye da shekara, matakin mafi girma tun watan Maris na 2009, wanda ke nuna ɗimbin ɗimbin farashin ya ƙaru. A halin yanzu hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya tsaya cak fiye da yadda aka zata. Duk da cewa da wuya a samu saukin matsalolin samar da kayayyaki nan gaba, ana sa ran matsalar makamashin za ta tsananta.

M aiki da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki sun sake yin magana game da hauhawar darajar bankin Kanada. Haɗin jarin da aka samu a Kanada ya tashi a duk tsawon kwana, tare da amfanin shekaru 10 ya kai mafi girman matakinsa tun daga Maris. A taron BOC na Oktoba, muna kimanta BOC don rage siyayyar QE zuwa CAD biliyan 1 a mako, tare da hauhawar matakin farko a ƙarshen 2022.

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