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The U.S. dollar index, which gauges the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, experienced its first major weekly decline in 2024. This decline follows a period of strong growth since late December.
Investor enthusiasm for the dollar was fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve would postpone its first interest rate cut of the year. This sentiment was based on the strength of the U.S. economy and the fact that inflation remained below the Fed’s target of 2%.
However, recent comments from Fed officials have tempered expectations. They have adopted a more cautious and patient stance, leading investors to reevaluate their expectations. While the market is anticipating three 25-basis point cuts, the Fed has only indicated one.
Dollar Up By Over 3% Since December Low
The dollar index is currently trading at neutral levels after peaking at 104.976 on February 14, marking a three-month high. Despite this, the dollar remains 3.3% stronger than it was on December 28, when it hit a five-month low of 100.617.
Investors are now focusing on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index next week. This index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and will provide further insights into the Fed’s future policy decisions.
In contrast, the euro remained stable at $1.0822 on Friday, rebounding from a low of $1.06949 on February 14. This recovery was supported by a slight improvement in German business confidence, although there are concerns that Europe’s largest economy may be entering a recession.
Looking ahead, the Bank of America predicts that the euro will strengthen to 1.15 against the dollar by the end of the year, as reported by Reuters. This forecast is based on the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will begin to reduce its bond-buying program.
For those interested in learning more about factors influencing exchange rates and how to capitalize on them, consider exploring our forex signals service.
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