Ukuhweba Amabhange Amaphakathi - The Rhetoric

Isevisi yokuhweba ngamakhophi. I-Algo yethu ivula futhi ivale ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuhweba.

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Okubhaliselwe kwanyanga zonke kuqala ku-£58.

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Emasontweni ambalwa edlule, sibhale isihloko esinamasu okuthi singahweba kanjani izenzo zeBhange Elikhulu. Njengoba sishilo lapho, amaBhange Amaphakathi anawo wonke amathuluzi okwehlisa inani noma ukwazisa imali yawo futhi ayisebenzisa noma nini lapho ecabanga ukuthi umnotho udinga umlenze phezulu. Sachaza ukuthi singahwebelana kanjani nge-'knee-jerk reaction' (isilinganiso senzalo esisikiwe noma ukukhuphuka kulethwa), indlela yokuhwebelana ngomphumela, sabe sesiphetha ngokuchaza indlela yokuhweba ngomthelela wangempela umcimbi okungenzeka ube nawo esikhathini eside. .

Kodwa izenzo ezinjengohlelo lwe-QE, lapho amaBhange Amaphakathi efaka khona imali emnothweni, ukunciphisa/ukwenyusa inzalo kanye nezilinganiso zediphozithi ezingezinhle njll., akuzona kuphela amathuluzi Amabhange Amaphakathi anawo kukhithi yawo. Baphinde basebenzise ithuluzi elithi 'rhetoric', nokunye okuningi. Bahambisa imilayezo kubahlanganyeli bemakethe futhi bahambise imakethe ngezingqungquthela zabezindaba zanyanga zonke, imizuzu yemihlangano nokunye ukuphawula okungavamile. Eqinisweni, ngokuvamile imakethe ihamba kakhulu ngokususelwa kumazwana avela kumabhange amakhulu kunasezenzweni zabo.

Kwesinye isikhathi, uma isenzo senziwe iBhange Elikhulu alithinti nhlobo imakethe ngoba selivele lifakwe intengo ngokusekelwe kumazwana aholela emcimbini. Into enjalo yenzeke ekuqaleni kuka-December 2015, lapho i-ECB inciphisa amanani ediphozi ngamaphuzu angu-10 (bps) futhi yengeza imali eyengeziwe ohlelweni lwabo lwe-QE. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi i-Euro ayizange yehle - esikhundleni salokho, yahlehla futhi yazuza cishe amasenti angu-5 ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezizayo. Lokho kwakungenxa yokuthi yonke into yayinenani elisekelwe emazwini amaningi amalungu e-ECB ayevele enikeze ezinyangeni ezimbili ngaphambi komcimbi.

Uma ufunda imibono ye-CB kahle ungenza amapayipi amaningi

Scalping imibono

Imibono evela kumabhange amaphakathi ilungele ukukhanda izinwele. Kubizwa ngokuthi 'i-scalping' ngoba ungena uphinde uphume endaweni emizuzwini embalwa noma imizuzwana, kodwa inani lamapayipi ongayenza likhulu kakhulu kunokwephuka okujwayelekile ngezikhathi ezijwayelekile. Ukuze wenze lokho kufanele uhlole i-ajenda yamalungu amabhange Amaphakathi njalo ekuseni futhi ubeke iso kumawebhusayithi ezindaba ze-forex njenge: forexlive.com, fxstreet.com njll., athumela izibuyekezo ezimfushane mayelana nezindaba ezihlobene ne-forex. ; ziningi zazo. Ungakwazi futhi ukulandela amaphephandaba ezezimali afana neReuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg njll. noma iziteshi ku-Twitter.

Lapho amabhange amakhulu ephawula ngenqubomgomo yezimali ukusabela kokuqala kwesenzo samanani ukuhamba namazwana. Isibonelo, uma ukuphawula kungamanga, imali ehlobene izokwehla ngokushesha, uma i-hawkish izokhuphuka. Emahoreni ambalwa nje edlule, umongameli we-ECB uDraghi ukhulume kafushane engqungqutheleni. Ukuphawula kwakhe kucishe kwaphola, ngakho into yokuqala efika engqondweni ukuthi i-Euro izokwehla - futhi yilokho kanye okwenziwa yile mali! I-Euro yehle cishe ngamapips ayi-150 uma iqhathaniswa neDola laseMelika, isuka ku-1.0920 yaya ku-1.0770. Ngikwazile ukungena ndawana thize futhi ngivale ngenhla nje kwe-1.08, okuyizinga lokumelana, okwenza cishe ama-pips angama-60.

Lena ingxenye yokuqala scalping izindaba, ingxenye yesibili kwenzeka ngesikhathi reverse. I-EUR/USD yehle ngokushesha ngaphansi kuka-1.08 kodwa yaphindela emuva ngokushesha ngaphezu kwalelo zinga, okuwuphawu lokuthi ukuhlehla, noma okungenani ukulandelela okukhulu, kungase kulandele ngaphambi kokuhlehla. Ngakho-ke, kulokhu ngithenge i-Euro ngaphezu kuka-1.08 futhi ngenza cishe ama-pips angu-40 njengoba iphindela emuva. Njengoba ubona, maningi amapayipi okumele enziwe asuse imibono yamalungu eBhange Elikhulu kodwa kufanele usheshe.

 

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Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nesu eliyisisekelo le-scalping: Scalping - Forex Trading Strategies

Ukuze uthole okwengeziwe mayelana nendlela yokusebenzisa ukukhishwa kwezindaba ukuze uzuze: Ukuhweba Ngezindaba - Amasu Okuhweba Nge-Forex

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Ukuhweba okwesikhashana kwamazwana

Ukuhweba okufushane kwamazwana kuhlanganisa ukubamba ukuhweba amahora ambalwa noma kufika ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ukuze ukwazi ukuzuza zonke izinzuzo kuwo. Ngemuva kokusabela kokuqala kanye nokubuyisela emuva, imakethe ivamise ukwenza okunye umnyakazo noma okubili ekuqondeni komnyakazo wokuqala. Ngokuhweba kwesikhathi esifushane, kufanele ube nolwazi oluthe xaxa futhi ubheke imikhondo nemilayezo ngaphakathi kwamazwana.

Esinye salezo zenzakalo kwakuyingqungquthela yabezindaba kasihlalo we-FED u-Yellen ngoMashi 2015. Imakethe yayilinde isikhathi eside i-FED ukuthi iqale uchungechunge lokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo. Ekuqaleni, ungacabanga ukuthi i-EUR/USD izotshuza ngaphansi kokulingana uma kubhekwa ukwehla okuqinile kwe-EUR/USD kanye nokuphambuka kwezinqubomgomo zezimali phakathi kwe-ECB ne-FED. Kodwa ukuphawula okuncane ngaphakathi kwesitatimende se-FOMC kupenda isithombe esibucayi. Ngenxa yalokho, lo mbhangqwana ungene esikhathini sokukhuphuka kancane, ukuphakama kwe-1.17 kusuka ku-1.0450s.

Kodwa athini amazwi amancane? Hhayi-ke, bathi ukukhuphuka kwamanani kuzofika uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka futhi lo mkhuba ubangelwa ukwehla kwentengo kagesi. Baphinde bathi bafuna ukubona umnotho waseMelika uthuthuka. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-US yayibhekene nenkathi yobuthakathaka ngenxa yobusika obunzima.

I-USD ilahlekelwe cishe ngama-pips angu-600 lapho i-FED iletha isitatimende esibi

Ukuhweba isikhathi eside kwamazwana

Umthelela wesikhathi eside wokuphawula kweCentral Banks ukuhweba kwangempela. Kwesinye isikhathi imakethe ingase ihumushe ngokungeyikho amazwana isikhathi esifushane futhi kuyenzeka ubone isenzo sentengo esiyinqaba esikhathini esifushane. Nokho esikhathini eside, imakethe ihlale ihamba ngendlela efanele.

Kunezikhathi lapho ukuphawula okukodwa noma isimemezelo sehla njengebhomu elithumela ukuwa kwemali, njengamazwana kamongameli we-ECB uDraghi ngoMeyi 2014. Umemezele ukuthi i-ECB izoqala uhlelo lokululaza (QE) kanye ne-Euro hasn´ ngabheka emuva kusukela. I-Euro ilokhu yehla ngokuqhathaniswa nawo wonke ama-majors, ikakhulukazi iDola laseMelika, futhi ngesikhathi i-QE iqala, iningi lomnyakazo lase livele lifakwe amanani.

Kunezinye izikhathi lapho imizwa yakheka khona isonto nesonto ngokusekelwe kumazwana amaningi amancane. Isibonelo esihle ukunyuka kwamasenti angu-10 engxenyeni yeDola laseMelika kusukela ngo-Okthoba kuya kuDisemba 2015. I-FED yadumaza imakethe ngoSepthemba lapho ingakhuphuli amanani enzalo. Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngo-Okthoba, inkulumo yamalungu e-FED yaqala ukwanda, namazwana amancane lapha nalaphaya mayelana nokuthi kufaneleka futhi kubaluleke kangakanani ukuqala ukukhulisa amanani. Imakethe ithole ukusikisela futhi i-USD yenyuka cishe ngamasenti ayi-10 kwaze kwaba uDisemba lapho empeleni ikhuphule amanani futhi yafaka amanani, ngakho-ke i-USD yazuza kuphela cishe ama-pips ayi-100.

Ukuqonda umphumela wesikhathi eside wezinkulumo zeBhange Elikhulu kulula. Ngisho noma ungazi okuningi mayelana nezisekelo, kunamakhulu amawebhusayithi anokuhlaziya nemibono evela kochwepheshe abachaza yonke into. Inkinga lapha ukubekezela. Kumele ube nemizwa yensimbi ukuze ubambe izikhundla izinyanga ngisho neminyaka ukuze uzuze zonke izinzuzo, kodwa kungaba nenzuzo enkulu uma ususebenze kulobu buhle.

Njengoba ubona, kunezinkulungwane zamapayipi ongayenza ukuhweba ukuphawula kwamabhange Amaphakathi. Ukuphawula kwamalungu Amabhange Amaphakathi kusetha ithoni yemakethe ngemali yawo. Kungenzeka ukuthi uma uphuthelwa ukuphawula, ngeke kube namapayipi amaningi asele kuwe lapho iBhange Elikhulu lithatha isinyathelo ngendlela yokwenyuka/ukusika noma ukuqala i-QE. Ungakwazi ukukhanda ama-pips angu-50-100 ngendaba yamaminithi, noma uhwebe isikhathi esifushane ngamakhulu amapayipi, noma uhwebe esikhathini eside ngezinkulungwane zamapayipi. Noma ngabe yiliphi isu olikhethile, uma lisetshenziswe ngendlela efanele lingaba nenzuzo enkulu.