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China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is propelling the international adoption of the yuan. This massive infrastructure and energy project connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe has spurred a surge in the yuan’s global utilization. In a significant shift, SWIFT data reveals that the yuan’s share of global payments skyrocketed to 3.71% in September, up from 1.91% in January.
Recently, during the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China’s policy banks inked numerous yuan-denominated loan agreements with foreign lenders, notably from the Global South. The presence of Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, at the forum further underscores support for China’s vision of a new, multi-polar world order.
A key driver of the yuan’s ascent is the escalating borrowing costs of the U.S. dollar, compelling many borrowers to explore more cost-effective financing options, such as the yuan. Geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also fueled concerns about the “weaponization” of the dollar, making other currencies more appealing.
Yuan Faces Hurdles on Road to Global Reserve Currency Status
Experts caution that the yuan faces hurdles on its path to becoming a global reserve currency. Challenges include its limited role in the oil trade and its susceptibility to volatility when measured against the dollar. Furthermore, there’s a valid concern that a currency favored by a select group of countries may not gain universal acceptance.
“A reserve currency is never a currency of a group of countries,” points out Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, to Reuters. She adds that while agreements with BRI countries might facilitate yuan adoption, achieving genuine global currency status remains a formidable task.
As of the latest data, the yuan is trading at 7.312 against the dollar, hovering near its lowest point since January 2008. The journey of the yuan toward becoming a truly international currency continues to unfold, shaped by economic forces, geopolitical dynamics, and the evolving landscape of global finance.
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