Will BTC Reach $100K or Correct to $88K First?

BTC has encountered potential headwinds as Glassnode points to a risk of correction below $88K before it can push past $100K. The analysis suggests that limited trading activity in this zone may hinder further gains without stronger support.

Long-Term Holders Intensify BTC Selling

Bitcoin’s recent rally has triggered significant profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs). According to Glassnode, daily profits reached $2.02 billion, a new all-time high, surpassing the March 2024 peak. Since September, LTHs have released 507,000 BTC into circulation, though this is lower than the 934,000 sold earlier this year.

Currently, about 0.27% of total LTH supply is distributed daily—a pace rarely seen in Bitcoin’s history. Most of the selling comes from coins held for six months to a year, accounting for 35% of realized profits, equivalent to $12.6 billion. These sales appear tied to momentum following the January launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, holders with coins older than a year have remained conservative, signaling long-term confidence in BTC’s future.

BTC Faces a Critical Supply Gap

Glassnode highlights a vulnerable price area below $88K, referred to as a supply “air gap,” where trading activity was sparse during the last rally. Bitcoin recently peaked at $99,645 before retreating to $96,000, largely due to short-term holders (STHs) taking profits.

For BTC to maintain its upward trajectory, the market must absorb ongoing sell pressure. Experts suggest that without stronger trading volume in the $88K zone, a pullback may be necessary to establish firmer support. This process is crucial for a sustainable climb toward the $100K milestone.

In the short term, BTC’s price action will likely depend on balancing supply and demand dynamics, especially amid heightened profit-taking by long-term investors.

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