2020: Strong Gold, Weaker Dollar Amid COVID-19 Vaccinations, Brexit Agreement

2020: Strong Gold, Weaker Dollar Amid COVID-19 Vaccinations, Brexit Agreement

Gold rallied slightly amid another fall in the dollar, but global progress in vaccinations has blocked demand for shelters. Despite recent breakthroughs in COVID vaccines, adoption has been disappointing, and the current wave seems to require more restrictive measures over the next few weeks.

More than a year has passed since the first cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in Wuhan, China. As a result of the virus, we witnessed an unfathomable global outage in the second quarter, followed by a record return to growth in the third quarter with the onset of the summer months. The fourth quarter ended with the second and third waves. In November, the results of Phase 3 vaccine trials began to arrive, and by the end of the year, key workers and those most in need were receiving their first doses.

Without too many surprises, the UK House of Lords approved a Brexit trade deal early Thursday in Asia.

“Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal was approved by the UK Parliament just 24 hours before the country’s final secession from the European Union,” Bloomberg reported.

The agreement was previously renegotiated by the House of Commons, receiving 521 votes in favor of 73 to 73. It should be noted that the Scottish National Party (SNP) opposes the bills, stating, according to Bloomberg, it will harm the Scottish fishing industry and told Johnson that it would support the argument in favor of independence.
Weaker US Dollar in 2021
As the vaccine is prepared and more people return to work, the need for fiscal and monetary incentives will decrease; however, many central banks have indicated that they will maintain the adaptive monetary policy until 2021. The US dollar may remain under pressure during the first half of the year but may rise in the third and fourth quarters as the FOMC may hint at an increase in interest rates if inflation rises until 2022.

Simply put, better economic data equals less incentive. Fewer incentives mean less US dollars in the system. Less US dollars (plus higher demand for products and services) means a higher price.

On the monthly timeframe, the DXY has broken below the uptrend line since September 2011. If this level is broken, notice the 50% recovery from the February 2008 lows to the January 2017 highs as the next support level, around 87.10. Below was the 50% retracement level around 87.26 and the horizontal support around 84.60.

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Author : Azeez Mustapha

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Azeez Mustapha is an experienced author, trader, markets analyst, signals strategist, and funds-manager.