USOil (WTI) Signals Bearish Rejection From Premium Supply Imbalance Region

Market Analysis – July 4

USOil signals a bearish rejection from the premium supply imbalance region. The USOil daily chart shows a strong rejection from the premium supply zone near $78.00, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous decline. Price action has since moved below the 9-day Simple Moving Average, currently positioned at $65.80, indicating a shift from a bullish expansion phase to a corrective decline. The Stochastic Oscillator remains near oversold territory at approximately 23.60, reflecting weakening buying pressure and suggesting a possible continuation of the downward move.

USOil Key Levels

Resistance Levels: $72.20, $80.70, $84.50
Support Levels: $65.30, $55.20, $52.00

USOil Long-Term Trend: Bearish

Structurally, price has formed a clear swing high just below the $77.10–$80.70 order block, an area where substantial liquidity was absorbed before the reversal occurred. The inability to break above the $72.20 resistance level has further confirmed bearish dominance in the market outlook.

Looking forward, the technical setup supports a continued bearish trend, with expectations of deeper retracements. A likely scenario involves a temporary consolidation or rebound toward the $70.00–$72.20 zone to attract liquidity, followed by renewed bearish pressure driving prices down toward the $65.30 and $55.20 support levels. If bearish momentum strengthens, a firm close below $64.00 could pave the way for a sharper drop toward $55.20 over the medium term. Traders may benefit from integrating forex signals into their strategy for clearer directional cues.

USOil Short-Term Trend: Bullish

USOil currently exhibits short-term bullish momentum after filling the previous liquidity void, with price consolidating just above this zone. The 9-period SMA is now positioned below the price action, confirming short-term upward pressure.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, indicating strong buying interest but also pointing to the possibility of brief pullbacks. A likely short-term target for buyers is the $72.20 resistance level, with potential continuation toward $80.70 if the momentum persists.

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