Silver Price Outlook: Could the White Metal Reach $40 Soon?

Silver price outlook turned bullish as the precious metal showed steady gains on July 3. Spot silver traded between $36.34 and $37.07, closing at $36.85 — up by 0.82% on the day. The MCX September contract also climbed to ₹1,08,200, gaining approximately 0.6%. With solid technical momentum and supportive fundamentals, silver may be eyeing the $40 mark in the short term.

Global Data Strengthens Sentiment

One of the main drivers behind the positive silver price outlook is improving economic data across the globe. In the U.S., June’s nonfarm payroll report beat expectations with 147,000 jobs added versus the forecast of 106,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, slightly lower than the expected 4.3%, even as labor force participation declined.

Wage growth remained modest, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below projections. The ISM Services Index bounced back to 50.8, suggesting a return to growth in the largest sector of the U.S. economy.

In the Eurozone, the composite PMI rose to 50.6 — its highest level since March. While China’s Caixin composite PMI slowed to 50.6, it still reflects expansion. Together, these figures point to a stabilizing global economy, which generally supports industrial demand for silver.

Tariffs, Trade Deals, and Market Impact

Trade policy continues to influence the silver price outlook. The recently finalized U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement will impose 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the U.S., while the U.S. will pay no tariffs in return. A 40% tariff has also been added to goods transshipped through Vietnam, targeting Chinese exports routed indirectly. This development could affect global supply chains and increase safe-haven demand for silver.

Meanwhile, China is reacting cautiously, evaluating the impact of this deal on its economic interests while accelerating rare earth exports to Europe. Tensions between the U.S. and China could become a new catalyst for metals like silver.

In another boost for the white metal, the U.S. government recently passed a $3.4 trillion tax cut and spending bill, raising concerns over deficit growth. Historically, such policies weaken the dollar and benefit precious metals.

 

Silver Price Outlook: Key Technical Levels

Investor interest in silver remains strong. Global silver ETF holdings have surged to a near 3-year high at 773.283 million ounces — up 8% year-to-date. The Silver Institute forecasts a 2025 deficit of 117.6 million ounces, maintaining bullish supply-demand dynamics.

Technically, silver price outlook targets remain optimistic. Support lies at $35.80 (₹1,05,000) and $35.50 (₹1,04,200), while major resistance stands at $37.50 (₹1,10,000). If bullish momentum continues and risk appetite holds, silver could test the $40 level (₹117,000) in the coming weeks.

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