Key Support: 104.60 – 104.00
key Resistance: 106.40
USD/JPY Long Term View
The USD/JPY has been rising for the better part of 2021 on a Yen selloff but the long term structure remains bearish since the pre-pandemic highs around 112.00. This was a massive -8.15% move from high to lows with a 3.5% pullback to current highs.
The Yen remains a safe heaven for US Dollar holders on a depreciation of this currency. In other words, money flows to the Japanese Yen when the US Dollar gets hit mainly because Japan maintains a positive trade balance.
4H Chart Reading
The UJ has rallied this week 1.75% to retest the top of the current bullish structure as the DXY remains capped by the 90.85 key level.
This play is riskier since we are trading a reversal on a bullish move. Caution is advised.
Massive bearish divergence is detected on the higher time frames at the rejection of the Sept. – Oct. 2020 highs. It is at this level that sellers gained control of this market for about 3 months and pushed price down 3.5%
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