USD/JPY Climbs Toward 148.00 Ahead of Key U.S. Inflation Data

USD/JPY continued its upward momentum on Monday, rising above 147.00 as investors brace for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday. The currency pair is approaching the crucial 148.00 level, with market focus centered on interest rate differentials and inflation expectations.

The U.S. Dollar remains supported against the Japanese Yen due to the wide gap in central bank policies. The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its ultra-low interest rate policy at just 0.5%. This gap makes the Dollar more attractive to investors seeking yield.

Market Focus: U.S. CPI and Rate Expectations

Investors are now turning their attention to June’s CPI report, set for release on Tuesday. The data is expected to show:

• Monthly CPI (headline): +0.3%
• Annual CPI: Up to 2.7% (from 2.4% in May)
• Core CPI (excl. food and energy): +0.3% MoM
• Annual Core CPI: Rising to 3.0% (from 2.8%)

These figures could influence the Fed’s next move on interest rates — and directly impact the USD/JPY trend. With President Trump recently criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for policy decisions, pressure is mounting on the central bank ahead of this release.

Technical Outlook: 148.00 in Sight

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY maintains a bullish trend:

• Support is holding at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline, near 147.14
• At the time of writing, the pair is hovering around 147.60
• A breakout above the 148.00 psychological barrier may open the door toward the May high of 148.65
• Further upside could extend to the 50% Fibonacci level at 149.38

On the downside, key support levels include:

• The 146.00 psychological level
• The 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 145.69
• If this zone breaks, sellers may target the 50-day SMA at 144.87

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 64, indicating building bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions — suggesting room for further gains if CPI surprises to the upside.

USD/JPY is climbing steadily as the market awaits critical U.S. inflation data. The combination of stronger U.S. yields and weak Japanese monetary policy continues to drive the pair higher. If Tuesday’s CPI report meets or beats expectations, traders could see USD/JPY break past 148.00 and extend toward new multi-month highs.

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