US Dollar (DXY) breaks with massive key level

US Dollar (DXY) breaks with massive key level

The DXY (US Dollar Currency Index) broke during the Asian session with a massive key level; the base/support level from November 2020. This is important because in an almost 12 month bearish market price has never pulled back above the previous base.

This comes from a rejection of a 12 year bullish structure (chart below) that, because of how fundamentally bearish the US Dollar is, was the make it or brake it level.
Now that the DXY has rallied from those lows and printed a new higher high after printing a higher low, the short-mid term structure is clearly bullish.

Having said that, the break above 92.20 was capped by the 92.50 level and now price has pulled back below that November 2020 base.
This by no means is a sign of weakness in my opinion; but rather a possible bear trap for a pull back to retest the previous high around the 91.60 level which confluences with the weekly pivot and the 38.2% of the full move (see chart below).

Should price pull back to this level, sellers will have trouble swiping all those buy orders and if this level holds we will look for opportunities to buy USDs on a super high probability trade.

This is what we do,  this is what we need to focus on, being patient and get in hard when these scenarios play out. The most likely markets that we will trade USD longs will be short metals, short EURUSD or long USDJPY-USDMXN.

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Author : Orlando Gutierrez

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