Pound Slides as US Dollar Gains on Fed Outlook

The British Pound fell for the second consecutive week against the US dollar as the greenback benefited from a hawkish Federal Reserve and upbeat US data. The GBP/USD pair traded below the 1.26 level for the first time since mid-June as investors priced in a sooner-than-expected rate hike by the Fed.

US Data and Fed Minutes in Focus for Cable Traders

The upcoming week will offer plenty of catalysts for the GBP/USD pair, with the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report being the main event. The NFP data, due on Friday, will provide clues on the strength of the US labor market and its implications for the Fed’s monetary policy.

The market consensus is for a solid increase of 200,000 jobs in June, following an impressive 339,000 gain in May. A higher-than-expected number could boost the US dollar further, while a lower-than-expected figure could trigger a corrective bounce in the pound.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Other key US data releases include the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the ADP Employment Change, and factory orders. These indicators will also reflect the state of the US economy and its recovery from the pandemic.

Additionally, the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, will be scrutinized for more details on the central bank’s hawkish shift. The Fed surprised markets last month by signaling two rate hikes by 2023 and opening discussions on tapering its bond-buying program.

UK Data Unlikely to Move the Needle for the Pound

On the other hand, the UK economic calendar will be relatively light, with only the final Services PMI for June on tap. The PMI is expected to confirm a robust expansion of the service sector, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Pound.

The GBP/USD pair will also pay attention to any developments on the Brexit front as well as speeches from Bank of England (BoE) officials. Any hints of policy divergence between the BoE and the Fed could affect the exchange rate.