Russian Ruble to End August in Sideways Bias Around 60.00

The Russian ruble (RUB) fell past the 60 price point against the US dollar (USD) on Friday as previous supporting factors faded, while the Russian stock market climbed higher.

The RUB lost the 60 mark, with the price approaching a 10-day peak near 61, although remaining within a sideways pattern through most of August. The single currency also struggled against the euro (EUR), falling to 61.00, its lowest recording since August 18.

Despite the recent performance, the ruble remains the bear-performing currency in 2022, bolstered by capital controls by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) as it fought to plug a massive sell pressure.

The currency’s volatility appears to have completely subsided after dramatic price swings sent it to a record low of 154.24 in early March, a few weeks after Russia deployed its military into Ukraine. The currency then posted its most aggressive rally in seven years to 50.65 in late June.

Russian Ruble to Become Volatile Again in September

Many analysts expect volatility to resume again for the currency as the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) plans to reopen in September. Commenting on this volatility possibility, Maxim Biryukov, an analyst at Alfa Capital, explained:

“The resumption of currency trading in the morning will increase liquidity. But given the reduced volumes compared to the afternoon session, it cannot be ruled out that there will be increased volatility in the additional hours.”

Meanwhile, Zarina Saidova, an analyst at Moscow-based Finam brokerage recently narrated that a few factors were driving the movement of the Russian currency and stocks on Friday. Saidova noted:

“Trading volumes are very low due to the holiday season. Meanwhile, the external background is not so bad – optimism prevails in the US and European markets.”