Ruble Unfazed by US Interest Rate Decision as USD/RUB Refreshes Two-Year Lows

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The Russian ruble continued its rally against the dollar in the London session on Thursday as the USD/RUB tapped the 63.98 low. In the US session on Wednesday, the forex pair touched the 63.87 level, its lowest point since February 2020.

The surge in ruble strength comes amid capital controls that also saw stock indexes in the US and other risk-loving assets soar as the market focused on development around more sanctions against Moscow.

The single currency recorded some positive traction over the past few weeks, most likely due to the mandatory conversion of foreign currency by export-based companies. Meanwhile, the dollar and euro experienced a demand drought amid declining imports and central bank restrictions on cross-border transactions after Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Ruble Maintains Gains Over Euro as More Russian Sanctions Get Discussed

The ruble also recorded notable gains against the euro as the EUR/RUB pair returned below the 70.00 mark in the London session on Thursday, nearing its 69.17 weekly low, its lowest point in over two years.

That said, talks of new sanctions against the European giant, including a total ban on Russian oil, have remained at the center of discussion as the West aims to further isolate Moscow from the global market.

Meanwhile, the ruble showed almost no signs of reaction to the US Fed interest rate hike yesterday, as the Fed announced its most aggressive rate hike in over two decades.

While the Russian market recorded no reaction to the US rate hike due to distortion from already-existing sanctions and restrictions on investment, the country would likely feel the indirect impact of this event through global inflation and commodity prices.

Finally, the stock market in Russia recorded some decent gains overnight as well. Analysts at Promsvyazbank noted:

“Thanks to an improved external backdrop, the Russian stock market can try to recover yesterday’s losses if there is no news about new sanctions.”