Kugulitsa Mabanki Apakati - The Rhetoric

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Masabata angapo apitawo, tidalemba nkhani yokhala ndi njira zamomwe mungagulitsire zochita za Central Bank. Monga tanenera pamenepo, Mabanki Apakati ali ndi zida zonse zochepetsera kapena kuyamikira ndalama zawo ndipo amazigwiritsa ntchito nthawi iliyonse akuganiza kuti chuma chikufunika. Tidafotokoza momwe tingagulitsire 'knee-jerk reaction' (chiwongola dzanja chodulidwa kapena kukwera kuperekedwa), momwe tingagulitsire zotsatirapo, kenako tidamaliza ndi kufotokoza momwe tingagulitsire zotsatira zenizeni zomwe chochitikacho chingakhale nacho pakapita nthawi. .

Koma zochita monga pulogalamu ya QE, kumene Mabanki Apakati amalowetsamo ndalama muzachuma, kudula / kukwera mitengo ya chiwongoladzanja ndi ndalama zopanda malire etc. Amagwiritsanso ntchito chida cha 'rhetoric', ndi zambiri. Amapereka mauthenga kwa omwe akutenga nawo mbali pamsika ndikusuntha msika kudzera pamisonkhano ya atolankhani pafupifupi mwezi uliwonse, mphindi zamisonkhano ndi ndemanga zina zapachaka. M'malo mwake, nthawi zambiri msika umayenda kwambiri kutengera ndemanga za mabanki apakati kuposa zochita zawo.

Nthawi zina, zochita zikachitika ndi Banki Yaikulu sizikhudza msika konse chifukwa zidagulidwa kale kutengera ndemanga zomwe zikubwera. Izi zinachitika kumayambiriro kwa December 2015, pamene ECB inadula mitengo ya deposit ndi 10 maziko (bps) ndikuwonjezera ndalama zowonjezera ku pulogalamu yawo ya QE. Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti Euro sinagwere - m'malo mwake, inasintha ndikupeza pafupifupi masenti 5 m'masiku angapo otsatira. Izi zinali chifukwa chakuti chirichonse chinali chokwera mtengo malinga ndi ndemanga zambiri zomwe mamembala a ECB adapereka kale miyezi iwiri isanachitike.

Mukawerenga ndemanga za CB molondola mutha kupanga ma pips ambiri

Kuchepetsa ndemanga

Ndemanga za mabanki apakati ndi abwino kwa scalping. Imatchedwa 'scalping' chifukwa mumalowa ndikutuluka mumphindi zochepa kapena masekondi, koma kuchuluka kwa ma pips omwe mungapange ndiakuluakulu kuposa scalping wamba munthawi yake. Kuti muchite izi muyenera kuyang'ana ndondomeko ya mamembala a Mabanki Akuluakulu m'mawa uliwonse ndikuyang'anitsitsa mawebusaiti a nkhani za forex monga: forexlive.com, fxstreet.com ndi zina, zomwe zimayika zosintha zazifupi zokhudza nkhani zokhudzana ndi forex. ; pali ochuluka a iwo. Mukhozanso kutsatira nyuzipepala zachuma monga Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg etc. kapena njira pa Twitter.

Pamene mabanki apakati akufotokoza za ndondomeko ya ndalama zomwe zimayambira pa mtengo wamtengo wapatali ndikupita ndi ndemanga. Mwachitsanzo, ngati ndemangayo ili yovuta, ndalama zofananirazo zimatsika mwachangu, ngati ndi hawkish zimawombera. Maola ochepa apitawo, Purezidenti wa ECB Draghi adalankhula mwachidule pamsonkhano. Ndemanga zake zinali zodekha, kotero chinthu choyamba chomwe chimabwera m'maganizo ndi chakuti Euro idzatsika - ndipo ndizo ndendende zomwe ndalamayi idachita! Yuro idatsika pafupifupi 150 pips motsutsana ndi US Dollar, kuchokera ku 1.0920 mpaka 1.0770. Ndinatha kulowa kwinakwake theka ndikutseka pamwamba pa 1.08, yomwe ndi mlingo wotsutsa, kupanga pafupifupi 60 pips.

Ichi ndi gawo loyamba la scalping nkhani, gawo lachiwiri limapezeka panthawi yosinthira. EUR/USD idatsika pang'onopang'ono pansi pa 1.08 koma idabwerera mwachangu pamwamba pamlingo womwewo, chomwe ndi chizindikiro kuti kubweza, kapena kubwereza kwakukulu, kungatsatire musanabwerere pansi. Chifukwa chake, nthawi ino ndidagula Euro pamwamba pa 1.08 ndikupanga pafupifupi 40 pips pomwe idabwereranso. Monga mukuwonera, pali ma pips ambiri oti apangitse kuti asamve ndemanga za mamembala a Central Bank koma muyenera kukhala othamanga.

 

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Kuti mudziwe zambiri za njira yoyambira scalping: Scalping - Njira Zamalonda Zamalonda

Kuti mumve zambiri zamomwe mungagwiritsire ntchito zofalitsa nkhani kuti mupindule: Kugulitsa Nkhani - Njira Zamalonda Zakunja

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Kugulitsa kwakanthawi kochepa kwa ndemanga

Kugulitsa ndemanga kwakanthawi kochepa kumaphatikizapo kugwira malonda kwa maola angapo kapena masiku angapo kuti muthe kupindula nawo. Pambuyo pochita koyamba ndikubwereranso, msika nthawi zambiri umapanga kusuntha kwina kapena ziwiri polowera koyamba. Pazamalonda akanthawi kochepa, muyenera kukhala odziwa zambiri ndikuyang'ana zowunikira ndi mauthenga mkati mwa ndemanga.

Nthawi imodzi yotereyi inali msonkhano wa atolankhani ndi mtsogoleri wa FED Yellen mu March 2015. Msikawu unali kuyembekezera kwa nthawi yaitali kuti FED iyambe kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja. Poyamba, mungaganize kuti EUR/USD ingadutse m'munsi mwa mgwirizano chifukwa cha kutsika kwamphamvu kwa EUR/USD ndikusiyana kwa mfundo zandalama pakati pa ECB ndi FED. Koma ndemanga zazing'ono zomwe zili m'mawu a FOMC zidajambula chithunzithunzi. Zotsatira zake, awiriwa adalowa m'nthawi yotsika pang'onopang'ono, akukwera pa 1.17 kuchokera ku 1.0450s.

Koma ndemanga zazing'onozo zinati chiyani? Chabwino, iwo adanena kuti kukwera kwa mitengo kudzabwera pamene kukwera kwa mitengo kunayamba ndipo chikhalidwecho chinayendetsedwa ndi kuchepa kwa mitengo yamagetsi. Ananenanso kuti akufuna kuwona chuma cha US chikuyenda bwino. Panthawiyo, United States inali kudutsa nthawi yofooka chifukwa cha nyengo yozizira kwambiri.

USD idataya pafupifupi ma 600 pips pomwe FED idapereka mawu owopsa

Kugulitsa kwanthawi yayitali kwa ndemanga

Zotsatira za nthawi yayitali za ndemanga za Central Banks ndi malonda enieni. Nthawi zina msika ungatanthauzire molakwika ndemanga kwakanthawi kochepa ndipo ndizotheka kuwona zinthu zachilendo zamtengo wapatali pakanthawi kochepa. Komabe m'kupita kwanthawi, msika nthawi zonse umapita njira yoyenera.

Pali nthawi zina pamene ndemanga imodzi kapena chilengezo chimodzi chikutsika ngati bomba likutumiza kugwa kwa ndalama, monga ndemanga ya pulezidenti wa ECB Draghi pa May 2014. sindinayang'ane mmbuyo kuyambira pamenepo. Yuro idatsikabe motsutsana ndi akuluakulu onse, makamaka US Dollar, ndipo pofika nthawi ya QE idayamba, zosuntha zambiri zidali zitagulitsidwa kale.

Palinso nthawi zina pamene malingaliro amapangidwa sabata ndi sabata kutengera ndemanga zazing'ono zambiri. Chitsanzo chabwino ndi 10 cent kupita kumtunda kwa dola ya US kuyambira October mpaka December 2015. FED inakhumudwitsa msika mu September pamene iwo sanakwere chiwongoladzanja. Komabe, kuyambira mu October, mawu a mamembala a FED anayamba kuwonjezeka, ndi ndemanga zazing'ono apa ndi apo za momwe kulili koyenera komanso kofunika kuti ayambe kukweza mitengo. Msikawu udapeza chidziwitso ndipo USD idakwera pafupifupi masenti 10 mpaka Disembala pomwe adakwera mitengo ndikudula mitengo, motero USD idangopeza pafupifupi ma pips 100.

Kumvetsetsa zotsatira za nthawi yayitali za rhetoric ya Central Bank ndikosavuta. Ngakhale simukudziwa zambiri zoyambira, pali mawebusayiti mazanamazana omwe ali ndi zowunikira komanso malingaliro kuchokera kwa akatswiri omwe amafotokoza chilichonse. Vuto apa ndi kudekha. Muyenera kukhala ndi mitsempha yachitsulo kuti mukhale ndi maudindo kwa miyezi komanso zaka kuti muthe kupindula zonse, koma zingakhale zopindulitsa kwambiri mutagwira ntchito pa khalidweli.

Monga mukuwonera, pali ma pips masauzande ambiri omwe mungapange kugulitsa ndemanga za Mabanki Apakati. Ndemanga za mamembala a Mabanki Apakati amayika kamvekedwe ka msika wa ndalama zawo. Ndikoyenera kuti ngati muphonya ndemanga, sipadzakhala ma pips ambiri otsalira kwa inu pamene Central Bank ikuchitapo kanthu ngati kukwera mtengo / kudula kapena kuyambitsa QE. Mutha kutsitsa ma pips 50-100 mumphindi zochepa, kapena kugulitsa kwakanthawi kochepa kwa mazana a pips, kapena kugulitsa ma pips kwanthawi yayitali. Njira iliyonse yomwe mwasankha, ngati itagwiritsidwa ntchito moyenera ikhoza kukhala yopindulitsa kwambiri.