Market Shifts Toward Uncertainty in August, US Instability Weighs on Dollar

Market Shifts Toward Uncertainty in August, US Instability Weighs on Dollar

The week and month have ended, as we are likely to continue in the FX space with uncertainty caused by a major jump in the US dollar vs. the Yen. On Friday, the American dollar recovered nicely, but every week, closed in the red against most major rivals, a sign of its continuing weakness. Extreme oversold conditions and profit-taking were behind its rebound ahead of the weekend. In the meantime, it was a short dollar day covering throughout the G10s.

While we head into this week the stars align for a turnaround to snap a sequence of consecutive days of lower highs and lows. Everything said and done however, the US dollar has emerged as the market most over-sold currency.

US Instability Weighs on Dollar
The US Congress failed to reach an agreement on a new stimulus deal after $600 in weekly unemployment benefits expired last week.

Republicans and Democrats keep debating a relief package.

Democrats keep promising to extend the full $600-a-week national unemployment benefits through January as part of a comprehensive $3 trillion recovery package, while Republicans settle at a lower rate for a short-term fix or continuation of the benefits.
On Friday, at ‘AAA,’ Fitch Ratings confirmed the U.S. Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) and Local-Currency (LC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and updated the Stable Outlooks to Negative.

US President Trump recommended postponing the presidential election this year, implying that postal voting may result in “the most misleading and dishonest election in history.” He has no power to do so, and any postponement would need congressional approval.

In the world, the number of new cases of coronavirus appears to have abated at about 60,000 suspected cases daily. The country’s death toll has reached 158K as per estimates from Sunday morning.

In this scenario, the dollar has little room for a consistent advance.

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