E hoʻolālā i kāu hoʻolālā kālepa no ʻApelila

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Nā Hua

I ka mahina i hala aku nei, ua paʻi mākou i kahi ʻatikala kahi i nānā ai mākou i nā kumu a me nā hiʻohiʻona i hoʻopilikia i kekahi mau kālā i Malaki. Ua nānā mākou i nā kumukūʻai ʻaila mua mai nā mahina o Malaki i nā makahiki i hala, a ua like ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana iā Malaki 2016. Ua nānā pū mākou i ka USD / JPY a kūkākūkā i ka emi ʻana o ka Japanese Yen i Malaki 2016 e kūʻē i ka US Dollar. Ua lilo kēia Malaki i palahalaha no USD/JPY. No kēia mahina, e nānā mākou i nā kumukūʻai petrol, a me nā kālā waiwai, aka ka Euro a me ka Paona Pelekane.

Ke Kumukuai Petrol

Ua emi ke kumukūʻai o ka petrol ma kahi o ʻelua makahiki i kēia manawa, ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai honua a me ka nui o ka lako. Eia naʻe, he mahina maikaʻi ʻo ʻApelila no nā kumukūʻai. E like me kā mākou e ʻike ai ma ka papa ma lalo, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai aila ʻehiku mai loko o ʻumi manawa i loko o ʻApelila i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala. ʻOiai i ka makahiki i hala, ʻo ia ka makahiki ʻino loa no ka petrol i nā makahiki he 15 i hala iho nei, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai ma kahi o 25%. No laila, e piʻi ana ke kumukūʻai aila i kēia mahina pū kekahi.

Ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ka petrol ma kahi o $42/barela ma ka waena o Malaki akā ua hoʻi hou i lalo e pani i kēlā mahina ma kahi o $36/barela. ʻO ia nā lā mua o ʻApelila a ke piʻi hou nei ke kumukūʻai. Aia mākou ma $ 37 / barrel, me nā kumu kumu e kākoʻo ana i ke kūlana bullish. Ua hoʻolālā nā ʻāina hana ʻaila i kahi hālāwai i kēia mahina e kūkākūkā ai i ka hana ʻana a me ka lawe ʻana aku, a me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana paha. Inā hiki mai kēlā, e piʻi ke kumukūʻai a ʻike mākou i ke kālā e lilo i mea waiwai nui. E lele ka Canadian Dollar inā hoʻoholo nā mea hana e kaupalena i ka hana akā ʻaʻole wau e aʻo e kūʻai i ka CAD e kūʻē i ka USD no ka mea ua hiki ke USD i lalo. ʻO ke kūlana maikaʻi loa ke kūʻai aku i ka EUR/CAD.

I ka wā lōʻihi, ʻo ʻApelila he mahina maikaʻi no ka Petrol

Ka Commodity Currencies

Ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā mea kūʻai aku a me nā kālā waiwai i ʻApelila. Malia paha no ka mea ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka wā e hiki mai ana i ka pūnāwai a piʻi ka makemake no ka pilikia? Loaʻa nā kālā Australian, Kanada a me New Zealand mai kēia manaʻo maikaʻi o ka mākeke a hoʻāʻo e hana i ka hapa nui o ia mea i ka wā e hiki ai iā lākou, ʻoi aku ke kūʻē i ka US Dollar. No laila, ʻo ka hoʻolālā forex maikaʻi loa ke ʻimi no ke kūʻai ʻana i nā manawa i ka wā dips.

Hōʻike ka papa ma lalo nei ua hōʻole ʻo USD / CAD i ka 11 mai 15 mau manawa i ka mahina o ʻApelila. ʻO nā mahina ʻehiku o ʻApelila i hala aku nei he maikaʻi ʻole no kēia pālua, ʻo ia ka manaʻo e ikaika ka Canadian Dollar i ka wā o ʻApelila. No laila, ma waho aʻe o ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i nā kumukūʻai petrol, ʻo ia kekahi kumu e kūʻai ai i kēia kālā i kēia mahina.

I nā makahiki he 16 i hala iho nei, ʻo ʻApelila ka mahina maikaʻi loa no CAD

The Pound Pelekane

ʻO nā kālā āpau a me nā mea hana ʻē aʻe i ka honua kālā, ʻo ʻApelila ʻoi loa ka lokomaikaʻi i ka Paona Pelekane. E like me ka hōʻike ʻana o ka papa ma lalo nei, ua mahalo ʻo GBP i ka USD ma 13 mai nā makahiki he 15 i hala. ʻO ka awelika o ka loaʻa kālā o kēlā me kēia mahina no nā makahiki he 15 i hala iho nei he 1.18% a no nā makahiki he 30 i hala he 1.06%. Ua mahalo ka Paona i ka Buck i nā mahina 11 ʻApelila i hala iho nei akā ua hōʻole wale i ʻelua manawa.

Aia kēia pālua i nā haʻahaʻa loa o ka mōʻaukala, e like me kāu e ʻike ai ma ka pakuhi mahina ma lalo nei, a ʻo nā stochastic a me nā hōʻailona RSI ua oversold a piʻi i luna, no laila ke kuhikuhi pū nei ka loiloi ʻenehana. Akā, ʻaʻole kēia he makahiki maʻamau no ka Paona; e mālama ʻia ka referendum Pelekane no ka haʻalele ʻana i ka EU ma Iune. Makaʻu ka mākeke i kahi koho "ʻAe", no ka mea e hōʻino paha kēia i ka lanakila lanakila 11 mau mahina.

ʻO ka GBP ke kālā hana maikaʻi loa no nā mahina ʻApelila

Ua kūʻai nui ʻia ʻo Stochastic a me RSI a piʻi i luna

ʻO ka Euro

Ua hana maikaʻi ka Euro i ka hapa nui o nā mahina ʻApelila i nā makahiki he 15 i hala. Aia ʻo EUR / USD i kahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa i ka makahiki i hala no ka mea ua hoʻomaka ka ECB i ka papahana QE, akā naʻe, ua lanakila ka Euro i ka 4.59% kūʻē i ke kālā. ʻAʻole ia ka mahina hana maikaʻi loa, akā ma ka awelika EUR / USD ua piʻi i ka 0.6% i ʻApelila mai kona hoʻomaka ʻana 16 mau makahiki i hala.

ʻO kēlā'ōlelo,ʻaʻole makemake ka ECB i ka Euro iʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe aʻaʻole lākou eʻoluʻolu ma kēia mau pae. I kēia lā wale nō i puka mai ai kahi lālā ECB e ʻōlelo ana e ʻoki hou paha ka ECB i ka uku ukupanee a he nui nā mea hana e hoʻohana ai inā pono. ʻAʻole makemake ka loiloi ʻenehana e kākoʻo i ka manaʻo o ka mahalo hou aʻe. Aia ka EUR / USD ma lalo o kahi pae kū'ē ikaika a, i ka hoʻoholo ʻana mai ka hana kumukūʻai, hiki iā mākou ke ʻōlelo ʻaʻole hiki ke uhaʻi hou. Inā hiki ʻole ke piʻi i luna, maopopo ka iho i lalo.

ʻO ʻApelila ka 3 o ka mahina maikaʻi loa no ka hui EUR/USD

ʻO ka pae kū'ē 1.1450 ka mea e paʻa nei i kēia manawa

I ka nānā ʻana i nā kumu o ke kau no kēia mau kālā, nā kumukūʻai petrol, a me kā lākou makemake e hoʻokō i kahi hana maikaʻi e kūʻē i ka USD, ʻaʻole paʻakikī ke ʻike i ka US Dollar ka mea maʻamau i ka wā o ʻApelila. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ʻApelila ka mahina maikaʻi loa i nā makahiki he 16 i hala no ka Buck, no laila ʻo kēia hana nui ma muli o ka nāwaliwali o USD.

Eia naʻe, haʻi mai ka loiloi ʻenehana iā mākou ua oversold ke USD. Hiki i kēia ke hoʻololi i ke kumu kūʻai o ʻApelila no nā kālā waiwai, nā kumukūʻai petrol, a me ka Euro a me ka Paona. ʻO ka referendum UK Brexit he pilikia hou no ka GBP - ʻoiai ʻo ka hiki ʻole ʻana i kahi kuʻikahi e nā ʻāina hana ʻaila he mea pilikia ia no ka CAD. A, e like me ka mea maʻamau, he pilikia mau ka ECB no ka Euro. No laila, pono e nānā i nā ʻano lōʻihi ma ke ʻano he hoʻomaʻamaʻa hoʻohui, akā e lawe iā lākou me ka paʻakai.