Ciniki Babban Bankin - The Rhetoric

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Makonni kadan da suka gabata, mun rubuta kasida mai dauke da dabaru kan yadda ake cinikin ayyukan babban bankin kasar. Kamar yadda muka fada a can, Babban Bankuna na da dukkan kayan aikin da za su rage darajar kudadensu ko kuma daraja su kuma suna amfani da su a duk lokacin da suke tunanin tattalin arziki na bukatar a tashi tsaye. Mun yi bayanin yadda ake cinikin ‘knee-jerk reaction’ (an rage kudin ruwa ko hawan ruwa), yadda ake cinikin abin da zai biyo baya, sannan muka kammala da bayanin yadda ake cinikin ainihin tasirin da taron zai iya yi a cikin dogon lokaci. .

Amma ayyuka irin su shirin QE, inda Babban Bankin Ƙasa ke cusa kuɗi a cikin tattalin arziki, yanke / haɓaka ƙimar riba da ƙimar ajiya mara kyau da dai sauransu, ba shine kawai kayan aikin da Babban Bankin ke da shi a cikin kit ɗin su ba. Suna kuma amfani da kayan aikin 'rhetoric', da yawa. Suna isar da saƙo ga mahalarta kasuwa kuma suna motsa kasuwa ta hanyar taron manema labarai kusan kowane wata, mintuna ganawa da sauran maganganu na lokaci-lokaci. A zahiri, sau da yawa kasuwa yana motsawa fiye da yadda ake yin tsokaci daga manyan bankunan banki fiye da ayyukansu.

Wani lokaci, idan Babban Bankin ya yi wani aiki ba zai yi tasiri a kasuwa ko kaɗan ba saboda an riga an yi tsadar sa dangane da maganganun da suka kai ga taron. Irin wannan abu ya faru a farkon Disamba 2015, lokacin da ECB ta yanke adadin kuɗin ajiya ta hanyar 10 tushe (bps) kuma ya kara ƙarin tsabar kudi zuwa shirin su na QE. Abin sha'awa, Yuro bai ragu ba - maimakon haka, ya juya ya sami kusan cent 5 a cikin 'yan kwanaki masu zuwa. Hakan ya faru ne saboda an yi farashin komai bisa ga yawancin maganganun da membobin ECB suka riga sun ba da a cikin watanni biyu kafin taron.

Idan kun karanta sharhin CB daidai za ku iya yin pips da yawa

Scalping da comments

Abubuwan da aka yi daga manyan bankunan tsakiya sun dace don gyaran fuska. Ana kiran shi 'scalping' saboda kun shiga kuma ku fita daga matsayi a cikin 'yan mintuna ko ma dakikoki, amma adadin pips da za ku iya yi ya fi girma fiye da kullun da aka saba a lokutan al'ada. Don yin haka dole ne ku binciki ajanda na membobin Babban Bankin kowace safiya tare da sanya ido kan gidajen yanar gizon labarai na forex kamar su: forexlive.com, fxstreet.com da sauransu, waɗanda ke buga taƙaitaccen sabuntawa game da labarai masu alaƙa da forex. ; da yawa daga cikinsu. Hakanan kuna iya bin jaridun kuɗi kamar Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg da sauransu ko tashoshi akan Twitter.

Lokacin da manyan bankunan tsakiya suka yi sharhi game da manufofin kuɗi, matakin farko na matakin farashin shine tafiya tare da sharhi. Misali, idan sharhin ya kasance dovish, kudin da ke da alaƙa zai ragu da sauri, idan shaho ne zai harba. 'Yan sa'o'i kadan da suka gabata, shugaban ECB Draghi ya yi magana a takaice a wani taro. Kalamansa sun kusan kwantar da hankula, don haka abu na farko da ya zo a zuciya shi ne cewa Yuro zai ragu - kuma wannan shine ainihin abin da kudin ya yi! Yuro ya ƙi kusan pips 150 akan Dalar Amurka, daga 1.0920 zuwa 1.0770. Na sami damar shiga wani wuri rabin hanya kuma na rufe sama da 1.08, wanda shine matakin juriya, yana yin kusan 60 pips.

Wannan shi ne kashi na farko na tsinkayar labarai, kashi na biyu yana faruwa ne a yayin da ake juyawa. EUR/USD ya nutse a ƙasa da 1.08 amma da sauri ya dawo sama da matakin, wanda alama ce ta juyawa, ko aƙalla babban koma baya, na iya biyo baya kafin komawa baya. Don haka, wannan lokacin na sayi Yuro kawai sama da 1.08 kuma na yi kusan pips 40 yayin da ya koma sama. Kamar yadda kuke gani, akwai ɗimbin pips da za a yi ta yin lalata da maganganun membobin Babban Bankin amma dole ne ku yi sauri.

 

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Don ƙarin koyo game da ainihin dabarun fatar fata: Scalping - Dabarun Ciniki na Forex

Don ƙarin kan yadda ake amfani da fitowar labarai don fa'idar ku: Kasuwancin Labarai - Dabarun Ciniki na Forex

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Ciniki na gajeren lokaci na sharhi

Ciniki na ɗan gajeren lokaci na sharhi ya ƙunshi riƙe kasuwancin na 'yan sa'o'i ko har zuwa ƴan kwanaki don ku iya samun duk fa'idodi daga gare su. Bayan amsawar farko da koma baya, kasuwa yawanci yana yin wani motsi ko biyu a cikin alkiblar motsi na farko. Don ciniki na ɗan gajeren lokaci, dole ne ku kasance da ɗan gogewa kuma ku nemi alamu da saƙonni a cikin sharhi.

Ɗaya daga cikin irin wannan taron shine taron manema labarai da shugabar FED Yellen ta yi a watan Maris 2015. Kasuwar ta daɗe tana jiran FED don fara jerin ribar riba. Da farko tunani, za ku yi tunanin cewa EUR/USD zai nutse ƙasa da daidaito idan aka ba da ƙarfi mai ƙarfi a cikin EUR/USD da rarrabuwar manufofin kuɗi tsakanin ECB da FED. Amma ƙananan maganganun da ke cikin bayanin FOMC ya zana hoto mai ban tsoro. Sakamakon haka, waɗannan biyun sun shiga lokacin jinkirin haɓakawa, suna hawa 1.17 daga 1.0450s.

Amma menene ƙananan maganganun suka ce? To, sun ce karin farashin zai zo ne lokacin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya tashi kuma yanayin ya biyo bayan faduwar farashin makamashi. Sun kuma ce suna son ganin ci gaban tattalin arzikin Amurka ya dore. A wancan lokacin, ko da yake, Amurka tana cikin wani lokaci na rauni saboda tsananin sanyi.

USD ta yi asarar kusan pips 600 lokacin da FED ta ba da sanarwar dovish

Ciniki na dogon lokaci na sharhi

Tasirin dogon lokaci na sharhin Babban Bankin shine kasuwancin gaske. Wani lokaci kasuwa na iya yin kuskuren fassarar sharhi na ɗan gajeren lokaci kuma yana yiwuwa a ga wani bakon matakin farashi a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci. Amma duk da haka a cikin dogon lokaci, kasuwa koyaushe yana tafiya daidai.

Akwai lokuta lokacin da guda ɗaya sharhi ko sanarwa ya faɗi kamar bam yana aika kuɗin kuɗi, irin su sharhin daga shugaban ECB Draghi a watan Mayu 2014. Ya sanar da cewa ECB za ta fara shirin sauƙaƙe ƙididdiga (QE) da Yuro hasn' t duba baya tun. Yuro ya ci gaba da raguwa a kan duk manyan masana'antu, musamman dalar Amurka, kuma a lokacin da QE ta fara a zahiri, an riga an saka farashi mafi yawan tafiyar.

Akwai wasu lokutan da aka kafa ra'ayoyin mako bayan mako bisa ga ƙananan maganganu. Misali mai kyau shine haɓakar kashi 10 zuwa sama a ɓangaren Dalar Amurka daga Oktoba zuwa Disamba 2015. FED ta kunyata kasuwa a watan Satumba lokacin da ba su haɓaka ƙimar riba ba. Duk da haka, tun daga watan Oktoba, maganganun mambobin FED sun fara karuwa, tare da ƙananan maganganu a nan da can game da yadda ya dace da mahimmanci don fara haɓaka ƙimar. Kasuwa ta sami alamar kuma USD ta tashi game da cents 10 har zuwa Disamba lokacin da suka hau kan farashin da farashi, don haka USD kawai ta sami kusan pips 100.

Fahimtar tasirin dogon lokaci na maganganun Babban Bankin yana da sauƙi. Ko da ba ku san abubuwa da yawa game da tushe ba, akwai ɗaruruwan rukunin yanar gizon da ke da nazari da ra'ayoyi daga ƙwararru waɗanda ke bayyana komai. Matsalar anan shine hakuri. Dole ne ku sami jijiyoyi na karfe don rike mukamai na watanni har ma da shekaru don samun duk fa'idodin, amma yana iya samun riba sosai da zarar kun yi aiki akan wannan nagarta.

Kamar yadda kake gani, akwai dubban pips da za ku iya yin ciniki da maganganun Babban Bankin. Kalaman da mambobin Babban Bankin suka yi sun sanya kasuwar siyar da kudaden nasu. Wataƙila idan kun rasa sharhin, ba za a sami pips da yawa da za su bar muku ba lokacin da Babban Bankin ya ɗauki mataki ta hanyar haɓaka ƙimar kuɗi / yanke ko fara QE. Kuna iya fatar kan 50-100 pips a cikin wani al'amari na minti, ko kasuwanci gajeren lokaci ga daruruwan pips, ko kasuwanci a cikin dogon lokaci na dubban pips. Kowace dabara da kuka zaɓa, idan aka yi amfani da ita daidai zai iya samun riba sosai.