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The worldwide benchmark yields’ intra-week rally was short-lived. Following the ECB’s decision on PEPP purchases, yields in Germany, the United States, and Japan began to fall. Although the CPI hit a 13-year high, this occurred. It remains to be seen whether investors agree with central bankers that the situation is temporary.
On Friday, the dollar rose versus all of its major counterparts, bringing the week’s advances to a close. No critical threshold, however, was breached. The demand for the US dollar was bolstered by strong US data, which indicated that the economy is on the mend, as the preliminary estimate of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 86.4 in June from 82.9 before. Position adjustments ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next Wednesday could help explain the gains.
Following the drop in yields, the Swiss Franc, Dollar, and Yen concluded the week as the best performers. The New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar are the two most vulnerable currencies. Even though both central banks have indicated that interest rates will be raised next year, this occurred. In July, the Bank of Canada hinted at more tapering.
Benchmark Yields in the United States, Germany, and Japan Falls
Last week, treasury yields fell sharply all over the world. It’s unclear whether this was due to investors finally recognizing that the current inflation spike was “temporary.” Alternatively, the ECB’s decision to continue with “substantially” greater PEPP purchases in Q3 triggered a “temporary” drop in treasury yields.
The 10-year German benchmark yield suffered the worst week of the year, closing at -0.27. After rising to -0.1 percent early in May, it’s now returning to March levels.
Japan’s 10-year treasury yields JGB yield also fell to 0.30, its lowest level since January. The US 10-year yield likewise suffered its worst week in a year, closing at 1.462, below the 1.5 handles. The current trend implies that the decline from 1.765 is expanding, with the 38.2 percent retracement of 0.504 to 1.765 at 1.283 as a likely target before establishing a bottom. At 1.288, the level is also near to the 55-week EMA.
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