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There are three central bank meetings this week, ECB, BoC, and BoJ as well as a slew of data releases, all of which will disclose how the main economies fared in the face of immobilized supply chains. As Europe grapples with the energy shock, the Bank of Canada may suggest that significant rate hikes are on the way, while the European Central Bank may push back against rumors of early tightening. Similarly, investors in the UK and Australia may have gone too far in pricing in strong rate hikes.
Last week, the markets became a little more mixed, indicating that they have already entered a near-term consolidative phase. Even while traders continued to increase their bets on a Fed rate hike next year, the dollar closed the day widely down. With rising government yields in the background, the yen was recovering and the Swiss Franc was strengthening.
The Canadian economy is in a fantastic state. Growth is resuming, inflation is skyrocketing, businesses are upbeat, the property market is on fire, and oil prices continue to rise. Best of all, the job market has recovered spectacularly, with employment levels already returning to pre-crisis levels. This means that wage growth will pick up shortly, keeping inflation dynamics in motion.
The situation in the eurozone is not that rosy. Fears of stagflation are rife, as supply disruptions threaten to stifle development while surging energy prices keep inflation high. There’s also the possibility of a Chinese slowdown. As the massive construction sector delivers, the property market there is suffering a nasty hangover, and with China as the Eurozone’s largest trading partner, some collateral damage appears unavoidable.
In light of this, the ECB will be wary about investors pricing in the first modest rate hike (10 basis points) for next year at its meeting on Thursday.
This suggests that the ECB may go against market expectations, downplaying the likelihood of rate hikes next year and, as a result, giving a slight shock to the euro. President Lagarde recently repeated her belief that inflation is just temporary, therefore the likelihood of a shift in policy appears minimal. There will also be a slew of data releases, including the preliminary Q3 GDP reading and October inflation figures, all of which will be released on Friday.
The Bank of Japan wraps up its meeting on Thursday morning. There isn’t much to anticipate. Despite the rest of the world’s inflationary supernova, the economy has barely managed to avoid deflation. This suggests that demand remains unstable and that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to join the global rate-hike party very soon.
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