Cocoa Prices Fall as West African Harvest Outlook Improves

Cocoa prices dropped sharply this week, extending their three-day losing streak to reach a one-week low. The fall comes as optimism grows over a stronger cocoa harvest in West Africa, easing fears of tight global supply.

West African Weather Boosts Cocoa Crop Outlook

Farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana—the world’s two largest cocoa producers—report that weather conditions have been ideal this season. Dry weather has helped beans dry properly, while earlier rains supported strong pod growth. These favorable conditions point to a bumper cocoa crop this year.

According to Mondelez International, the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and much higher than last year’s count. Farmers are optimistic about both the quality and yield of the new harvest that recently began in the Ivory Coast.

Cocoa prices slide as West Africa prepares for a big harvest — what it means for global markets 

Market Reaction and Investment Interest

Earlier in the week, cocoa prices had rallied to a five-week high. The rise came after the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) announced it will include cocoa for the first time in 20 years starting in January 2026.

This move could attract over $1.9 billion in cocoa futures buying from funds tracking the index. However, this bullish momentum was short-lived, as traders turned their focus to improving crop reports from West Africa.

Exports, Inventories, and Demand Trends

Cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast between October 1 and November 2 dropped 16% compared to the same period last year, according to government data. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories in U.S. ports fell to a 7.5-month low, showing tighter supply in some regions.

However, weak global demand continues to pressure cocoa prices. High prices and tariffs have reduced chocolate sales in North America and Europe. Research firm Circana reports that U.S. chocolate candy sales dropped 21% year-over-year, while Asian cocoa grindings fell 17%, the lowest in nine years.

Global Cocoa Outlook

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently revised its 2023/24 deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years. Still, for the 2024/25 season, ICCO expects a small surplus of 142,000 MT, driven by better weather and improved yields in West Africa.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to decline by 11%, slightly offsetting the regional gains.

Conclusion

For now, cocoa prices remain under pressure as traders balance strong harvest expectations with slowing demand. If West African crops continue to thrive, global supply could rise, leading to further price adjustments in the weeks ahead.

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