Cocoa Prices Slide as Global Supply Expands

Cocoa futures tumbled on Tuesday, pressured by signs of stronger harvests across major producing countries and weaker chocolate demand worldwide.

• New York cocoa (Dec contract) dropped -3.56% to an 11-month low.
• London cocoa (Dec contract) fell -2.47%, hitting its lowest level in 19 months.

Ghana Cocoa Deliveries Surge

Fresh supply from Ghana, the world’s second-largest producer, weighed heavily on prices. Cocoa arrivals to Ghanaian ports for the four weeks ending September 4 surged to 50,440 MT, up sharply from just 11,000 MT during the same period in 2024.

How global cocoa supply dynamics are shaping prices in 2025 — watch this analysis

Demand Concerns Pressure Chocolate Makers

Persistently high cocoa prices and tariffs have raised concerns about demand:

• Lindt & Sprüngli AG cut its annual margin forecast in July after reporting a larger-than-expected slump in first-half chocolate sales.
• Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume outlook twice in three months, citing weaker demand. The company posted a -9.5% drop in quarterly sales (March–May), its steepest decline in a decade.

Ivory Coast Outlook Adds to Bearish Mood

The Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is expecting a stronger crop this season:

• Mondelez reported pod counts in West Africa were 7% above the five-year average.
• The main harvest begins in October, with farmers optimistic about quality.
• However, the mid-crop harvest (ending September) has been disappointing, with average output seen at 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year due to late rainfall.

Nigeria Faces Lower Output

In contrast, Nigeria—the world’s fifth-largest producer—is forecasting an -11% drop in 2025/26 output to 305,000 MT, while July cocoa exports slumped -22% y/y.

Cocoa Exports and Inventories

Ivory Coast exports remain strong but have slowed compared to earlier in the season. Government data showed 1.82 MMT shipped between October 1 and September 28, up 3.4% y/y, but well below the +35% jump reported in December.

Meanwhile, ICE-monitored US cocoa inventories fell to a five-month low of 1.98 million bags, providing some support to prices.

Weather Risks Still in Focus

Despite bearish fundamentals, weather risks continue to play a role. West Africa experienced its driest 60-day stretch since 1979, raising concerns over pod retention and crop diseases such as black pod in Ghana and Nigeria.

Global Demand Weakness

Cocoa grindings, a key demand indicator, highlight global weakness:

• Europe Q2 grindings: down -7.2% y/y
• Asia Q2 grindings: down -16.3% y/y (lowest in 8 years)
• North America Q2 grindings: down -2.8% y/y

ICCO Forecast: From Deficit to Surplus

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years. But looking forward, ICCO projects a 2024/25 global surplus of 142,000 MT, with production expected to rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT.

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